Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

The Arc has me scratching my head this year. Vancouverite for Fabre and Godolphin wins an ordinary Group 2 and is vaulted into 16/1 whilst his stable companion Sky Hunter for the same owner but with much better form is friendless at 33s and has traded as big as 95 on the machine. At the prices he has to be worth a go as if it comes up soft he'll surely take his chance.

I think Flintshire, Novellist, Al Kazeem and Intello are all too short.

Treve is priced about right and Orfevre is a touch of value as ultimately he is the best horse in the race.
 
update

Flintshire (5), 120p, lightly raced, ground dependent, needs fast ground, similar to Rail Link, price too short.

Novellist (5), 127, best performance last time out, some doubts how he will take it after such a fast time on firm ground, I think he will run well , place chances.

Orfevre (7), 131+ quirky, some doubts about health but will be fresh and is the best horse in the field by a good margin, the fact such a valuable has been kept in training to win this race is that they should think he is much better than what we have seen so far, 7/1 very good price but will be a similar price in the next 2 weeks, so no harry at the moment.

Treve (8), 120+, form working fine, lacks a bit of scope but lightly raced and Dettori should be a positive, lets see her in the Vermeille


Intello (10), 125+. Champions st should be his target, will not stay and needs firm ground.

Al Kazeem (11drifter),126 will not run and not good enough

Kizuna (16), 122p* difficult to rate, looks a serious horse, 16/1 very good price and the most likely winner for me bar Orfevre.

Vancouverite (16), 116p. horse for next season, I prefer him at 10f at the moment and another for good ground.
 
Thanks Suny, very interesting.

Is Kizuna definitely targeted at this though?

It's a pity Al Kazeem didn't hose up yesterday.
 
Hamm said:
Is Kizuna definitely targeted at this though?
Click to expand...

Kizuna flies out this weekend, Orfevre arrived yesterday.

Here's Kizuna's Derby win:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AViBYRcGHII

Dancing Brave type stuff. At 20+ on Betfair, he's the only one that hasn't been found out at the prices for me. My only concern is that the three that have come out of the Derby have all got beat in lesser grades but at the same time, it's not really the time of year for Japanese flat racing as it's so humid out there this time of year. The main races being in the spring and late Autumn - early Winter so the form hasn't really had chance to be judged to the same extent of say, the Epsom Derby.

I couldn't have Orfevre at 7-8, he had his chance last year and blew it. This is surely stronger with at least Novellist, Treve and Flintshire looking like better than anything he faced this year? Hardly Camelot, Great Heavens and Sea Moon. I think he'll go off double figures and there's also a concern he's only won a G2 at prohibitive odds since plus had bleeding issues.

Novellist is certainly not a bad price at 5 by any means IMO but Kizuna the only one who you could potentially have a substantially larger price than his SP currently.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Dancing Brave type stuff. At 20+ on Betfair, he's the only one that hasn't been found out at the prices for me. My only concern is that


I couldn't have Orfevre at 7-8, he had his chance last year and blew it. This is surely stronger with at least Novellist, Treve and Flintshire looking like better than anything he faced this year? .
Click to expand...

It was redolent of Dancing Brave - apart from the ones in behind him being listed/gp3 quality rather than Bering, Triptych and Acatenango. First time I saw Orfevre I got goose bumps - first time I saw Kizuna my impression was the race fell just his way with them going too fast up front. And he only has form on fast ground.

As for Orfevre, yes this field is tougher and he did blow it to a certain extent last year but the draw/deep ground were more important in that defeat than his waywardness. Ultimately he's the best horse in the field.

I disagree about Novellist as well. The KG was a terrible renewal.
 
It is such a shame that Gold Ship isn't coming, there are several formlines which suggest he has the beating of Orfevre and for me, is a more straightforward and impressive beast.

Agree the Kizuna form doesn't look sensational (and acknowledged it) but I think it's more due to it's not had the chance to be tested for the aforementioned reasons (lack of opportunities).

Has he beat any more or less than say, Flintshire has though? Again, impressive winner with scope to go on to better against a load of G3 animals currently. Given one is 5 and one is 16+, I know which is value at the moment.

Think Novellist's margin of superiority was so great at Ascot that the beaten horses aren't a great indicator of his own level of ability IMO. Scary thing is, I don't even think he's even finished improving. He's only had 10 runs and can go on any ground. I'd almost like him to get beat in Germany next time (as suny said, hard race LTO) out to boost his price. :D
 
Gamla Stan said:
Has he beat any more or less than say, Flintshire has though? Again, impressive winner with scope to go on to better against a load of G3 animals currently. Given one is 5 and one is 16+, I know which is value at the moment.

Think Novellist's margin of superiority was so great at Ascot that the beaten horses aren't a great indicator of his own level of ability IMO. Scary thing is, I don't even think he's even finished improving. He's only had 10 runs and can go on any ground. I'd almost like him to get beat in Germany next time (as suny said, hard race LTO) out to boost his price. :D
Click to expand...

The difference between Flintshire, Kizuna and Novellist is that the former quickened clear off of a slow pace in the Grand Prix. No, he isn't value at 5s but I'm fairly happy with the 20s I have. And I'd even prefer the ground to go against him on the day as I have huge prices about his stable companion.
 
:Flintshire (5), Novellist (5), Orfevre (15/2), Treve (8), Intello (10), Al Kazeem (11), Kizuna (16), Vancouverite (16), Esoterique (20), Magician (20), Remote (20), The Fugue (20), Triple Threat (20), Alive Alive Oh (25), Declaration Of War (25), Manndawi (25), Telescope (25), Trading Leather (25), Bravodino (33), Chicquita (33) Show all
 
Very unlikely runner

I imagine he is the type for the Prix Orange the next weekend


Fabre has to choose better than him intello, flintshire, triple threat, vancouverite......
 
Flintshire maybe on good ground but if it comes up soft Sky Hunter will be his best chance. The other two aren't even worth mentioning.
 
sunybay said:
Sky Hunter and intello not entered in the niel
Click to expand...

Intello I can understand because he's not had the summer off. Tempted to back him for Ascot as he surely won't run on soft ground and he has the beating of AK and DoW.

Sky Hunter I just don't know what the crack is. Sheikh Mo needs to lay the law down - this horse has a better chance in a bigger race than Dawn Approach did at the start of June.
 
Last edited:
Novelist not that impressive there. I have doubts over the strength of the KG form and wouldn't want to back him for the Arc at this stage.
 
BennyB said:
Novelist not that impressive there. I have doubts over the strength of the KG form and wouldn't want to back him for the Arc at this stage.
Click to expand...

The KG is rancid form. Trading Leather is no more than a 118/9 animal over 10f and is less than that over a mile and a half. Hillstar is not much more than a good handicapper. Ultimately Novellist is a 125 beast who lucked out on the day due to the way the race was run and the level of opposition. I'd have him at 16s for the race.
 
Back
Top