Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

time to start taking positions
I took 7/1 Orfevre
I think the ground will not suit Flintshire and Kizuna and Orfevre will be much shorter on sunday night
 
Orfevre should be about 14/1. He hasn't won a decent race for fifteen months now, has had problems, is quirky and faces a much stronger field than last year.

Stellar Wind is a cracking EW in the Foy, wasn't beaten far behind Fenomeno in April at Tokyo who was fifth in a Japan Cup and is a G1 winner himself. He doesn't have much to find with Orfevre on last Winter's form and 12/1 is big.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Orfevre should be about 14/1. He hasn't won a decent race for fifteen months now, has had problems, is quirky and faces a much stronger field than last year.
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He might not have won the Japan Cup last year but the form he showed was up to par. It's a stronger field this time around I'd agree but he's the only 130+ performer in the line-up and I think it's worth taking a chance on his "problems".
 
I rate his win this year on same form Flintshire did in the GP Paris

if Orfevre were not here, Danedream and Nathaniel would be favorites for this edition
 
Euronymous said:
He might not have won the Japan Cup last year but the form he showed was up to par. It's a stronger field this time around I'd agree but he's the only 130+ performer in the line-up and I think it's worth taking a chance on his "problems".
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While I see what you're saying, to perform to a 130+ level (as he has almost done... he ran to an RPR of 126 in the Arc and has a best of 129) everything would need to have gone just right with the horse.
 
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No one really cares about the Arc this year. It's odds on that a 25/1 shot wins the race if that make sense.!

Either that or something special will come along in the meantime :)
 
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Gamla Stan said:
...He hasn't won a decent race for fifteen months now, has had problems, is quirky and faces a much stronger field than last year.
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The Group 2 he won in March, in Japan, was only 1lb shy of his Arc performance and might reasonably be described as "decent".
 
The picture is quite clear now for me

Orfevre wins and Kizuna runner up, I can not wait until October 6th.
 
sunybay said:
The picture is quite clear now for me

Orfevre wins and Kizuna runner up, I can not wait until October 6th.
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Pretty much agree. ROTW didn't beat Ocovango as far as he did at Epsom but the Fabre horse was poorly ridden that day. This line of form isn't good enough for an Arc but Kizuna promises to be much better in October.

Treve was impressive but won like you'd expect a 124/5 filly to do. She's underpriced now.
 
Gracious me - I am amazed Ruler of the World is being written off let alone Treve. The former should have won today but Moore held on to him only for Flintshire to roll into the gap . With a clear run he would have beaten Kizuna comfortably.

Treve was very impressive off a slow pace- Criquette Head knows what she is doing with a three year old filly . Wild Coco would surely have won the Irish Leger by half the length of the track - then again that is a Group 2 in all but name .
 
gus said:
I thought it was a terrific trial, given the way the race was run.

What price would you lay?
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The Vermeille isn't a trial though so I'd expect the two Japanese colts to have more up their collective sleeves than she does. I'd make her 10s, no way should she be shorter than Kizuna. Both could be vulnerable to **** rides as well.
 
I am very happy with the results of the trials , and reading the forum it looks Treve will do su the prices, i dont see her in the first 4.

Orfevre is a class above this field and with a good pace in the race he should win in style.

Kizuna , strong sort, will improve for the run and if the ground is firmer, main danger and will do the exactas.


Treve good turn of foot , goes well fresh and I dont expect improvement in 3 weeks.


Of the others
Novellist can run to a place if in the same form of the King George.
Flintshire will improve on firmer ground and can be place too
Ruler of the world , good run and place claims too, Ryan Moore will ríe again.


On figures I rate
Orfevre 130+. Can hit 135 on fight conditions
Kizuna 123P , can see him running to 129
Treve. 119p You have to add the 3 pounds of sex
Ruler of the world 120+
Flintshire. 121p, on good to firm could do a 125
Novellist 125


I am on Orfevre at 7/1 and 4/1 and also took Kizuna 8/1
 
I admit I am biased as I took 28 but for me Kizuna enhanced his chances more than anything else. The others simply confirmed their places for me.

Kizuna travelled beautifully and Take clearly didn't want to take much out of him, he was apparently 80% fit and can see him improving hugely in three weeks. ROTW surprised me but I can't see him reversing the form given how poorly his Derby form looks.

Treve was hugely impressive. Dettori gave her a terrible ride and she got him out of trouble. She deserves to be favourite having ran the quickest time and closing sectional of the three trials.

Orfevre simply had a canter and beat total trees. He is still lacking any top class form in recent months. He's not proved he's a better horse than last year and this is a stronger renewal.

I can see Novellist being the forgotten horse and hitting 8/9 on the day and I wouldn't rule out Al Kazeem for a place going right handed and he could hit 16/20.

Treve and Kizuna also have concerns over their running styles but Take was sensible and stayed wide. Something he should do on the day. You'd want to see both land wide draws rather than get run into the back of hounds like Camelot.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Treve was hugely impressive. Dettori gave her a terrible ride and she got him out of trouble. She deserves to be favourite having ran the quickest time and closing sectional of the three trials.

Orfevre simply had a canter and beat total trees. He is still lacking any top class form in recent months. He's not proved he's a better horse than last year and this is a stronger renewal.
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The Vermeille was the one race of the three run at a pace condusive to a fast time (the Niel pacemaker largely ignored) and unlike Orfevre she was pretty much ridden to the line. I just cannot have a filly as short as she is given the lack of variety amongst her vanquished opponents. Orfevre just has that smack of brilliance about him and he does not need to be a better horse than he was last year. With better fortune with the draw/ground is it really a 4/1 shot that he runs to 130+? I don't think so.
 
I would say more.

I don't think we should go overboard about the supposed quality of this renewal. Treve could end up no better than Galikova (she was a filly that was seriously fancied after looking better in her Vermeille than the Niel and Foy scorers) and whilst I expect Kizuna to improve Ocovango seriously limits the view we can give the actual form of the Niel.
 
The vermeille is almost always the fastest of the 3

Treve form .....
Just imagine what orfevre would do to wild coco y orion star

About the % if the race were run today, in any ground and with all horse without injuries orfevre has a better than 50% chance for me,
The only improver I see on the field is Kizuna
 
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