Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

Well, I'm resigned to Sky Hunter not running now really. But if it was on his agenda I'd give him a similar chance to Novellist.
 
Euronymous said:
The KG is rancid form. Trading Leather is no more than a 118/9 animal over 10f and is less than that over a mile and a half. Hillstar is not much more than a good handicapper. Ultimately Novellist is a 125 beast who lucked out on the day due to the way the race was run and the level of opposition. I'd have him at 16s for the race.
Click to expand...

I'll have some 16s if any is going? He's the best horse in the race on 2013 form.

Yesterday's prep at Baden Baden was about as reflective of his chance in the Arc as my lunch was yesterday.

If you think he's slow, I suggest you read this: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-debate/simon-rowlands/sectional-debrief-betfair-king-george-ascot-280713-43.html
 
All those sectionals (sparse as they are) tell is that Novellist can keep going off a strong pace on a stiff track. As he proved again yesterday, he's unlikely to have the speed for a good ground Arc.
 
Who does Flintshire face in the Niel? (in 12 days)

If he has nothing to run against, he might hose up and become very short, and 5s could be worth a bet now/pre-Niel (get it?).
 
Last edited:
Hamm said:
Who does Flintshire face in the Niel? (in 12 days)

If he has nothing to run against, he might hose up and become very short, and 5s could be worth a bet now/pre-Niel (get it?).
Click to expand...

Kizuna and some Ballydoyle sacks presumably.
 
Hamm said:
Who does Flintshire face in the Niel? (in 12 days)
Click to expand...

Kizuna maybe, and I would thiink the likes of Shikarpour, Bravodino, Morandi, some stable companions. He's already proven his abilty to quicken off a moderate pace so you have a point. How much he shortens might depend on whether or not Orfevre takes in the Foy.
 
reet hard said:
As he proved again yesterday, he's unlikely to have the speed for a good ground Arc.
Click to expand...

He proved absolutely nowt yesterday. He broke (smashed) the track record on fast ground at Ascot and goes on soft. I don't know what else he could have done to prove he's a top class middle distance horse and undoubtedly the horse with the best 2013 form on offer currently.

Flintshire and Kizuna have aspirations to be at that level but they are still only aspirations.
 
Gamla Stan said:
He proved absolutely nowt yesterday. He broke (smashed) the track record on fast ground at Ascot and goes on soft. I don't know what else he could have done to prove he's a top class middle distance horse and undoubtedly the horse with the best 2013 form on offer currently.

Flintshire and Kizuna have aspirations to be at that level but they are still only aspirations.
Click to expand...

He proved exactly the same he did in his 2 previous good ground gp1's - that he lacks speed.
Has stamina in abundance, but that's rarely enough to win an Arc.
 
Help me understand something - a horse that smashed the track record at Ascot on fast ground doesn't have enough speed? I have the impression you both (Euro and Reet) have this horse the wrong way round, no?
 
I wonder how many Group races have been run over 12f on that sort of ground since they relaid the suface.
 
Last edited:
Hamm
They were strung out like washing from Swinley Bottom on in the King George, and it's uphill all the way from there. Neither will be the case in the Arc
Novellist's profile - from his very first race over a soft ground mile as a 2yo - is wholly that of a horse who needs a stern test of stamina. He got it at Ascot, it's a lot less likely at Longchamp.
 
Fair point but someone has to be favourite and he has the best credentials of the horses lining up at this stage until we get to the trials when it's possible another horse may improve past him in terms of chances.
 
reet hard said:
Hamm
They were strung out like washing from Swinley Bottom on in the King George, and it's uphill all the way from there. Neither will be the case in the Arc
Novellist's profile - from his very first race over a soft ground mile as a 2yo - is wholly that of a horse who needs a stern test of stamina. He got it at Ascot, it's a lot less likely at Longchamp.
Click to expand...

The Arc is nearly always run at a blistering pace so it will clearly be a decent test of stamina so again, I think the points you and Euro provide back up the horses chances rather than saying he is underpriced.
 
Who is Orfevre going to be up against in the Foy other than some more Ballydoyle sacks like Camelot?
 
Hamm said:
The Arc is nearly always run at a blistering pace so it will clearly be a decent test of stamina so again, I think the points you and Euro provide back up the horses chances rather than saying he is underpriced.
Click to expand...

But at Ascot you had a small field race where the only "finishers" beside the winner were a Group 3 type and a Bolger creature plainly better over shorter. Assuming we get a similar gallop in Paris Novellist won't have that paucity of viable opponents.

I'm hoping Ektihaam might be up for pacemaking duties in the Foy.
 
I know they are to be taken with a pinch of salt but the long range weather forecasts indicate that Paris is due a dry four weeks.
 
Back
Top