Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Well, I'm resigned to Sky Hunter not running now really. But if it was on his agenda I'd give him a similar chance to Novellist.
The KG is rancid form. Trading Leather is no more than a 118/9 animal over 10f and is less than that over a mile and a half. Hillstar is not much more than a good handicapper. Ultimately Novellist is a 125 beast who lucked out on the day due to the way the race was run and the level of opposition. I'd have him at 16s for the race.
I'll have some 16s if any is going? He's the best horse in the race on 2013 form.
Yesterday's prep at Baden Baden was about as reflective of his chance in the Arc as my lunch was yesterday.
If you think he's slow, I suggest you read this: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...rief-betfair-king-george-ascot-280713-43.html
Who does Flintshire face in the Niel? (in 12 days)
If he has nothing to run against, he might hose up and become very short, and 5s could be worth a bet now/pre-Niel (get it?).
Who does Flintshire face in the Niel? (in 12 days)
As he proved again yesterday, he's unlikely to have the speed for a good ground Arc.
I don't know what else he could have done to prove he's a top class middle distance horse and undoubtedly the horse with the best 2013 form on offer currently.
He proved absolutely nowt yesterday. He broke (smashed) the track record on fast ground at Ascot and goes on soft. I don't know what else he could have done to prove he's a top class middle distance horse and undoubtedly the horse with the best 2013 form on offer currently.
Flintshire and Kizuna have aspirations to be at that level but they are still only aspirations.
Kizuna and some Ballydoyle sacks presumably.
and some Ballydoyle sacks presumably.
He has to beat something top class for a kick off, certainly at his current price.
Tell me what else has beat something "top class" in there?
Other than Orfevre who hasn't beat anything top class since Christmas 2011!
Hamm
They were strung out like washing from Swinley Bottom on in the King George, and it's uphill all the way from there. Neither will be the case in the Arc
Novellist's profile - from his very first race over a soft ground mile as a 2yo - is wholly that of a horse who needs a stern test of stamina. He got it at Ascot, it's a lot less likely at Longchamp.
The Arc is nearly always run at a blistering pace so it will clearly be a decent test of stamina so again, I think the points you and Euro provide back up the horses chances rather than saying he is underpriced.
Who is Orfevre going to be up against in the Foy other than some more Ballydoyle sacks like Camelot?