Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013

Gamla Stan said:
I admit I am biased as I took 28 but for me Kizuna enhanced his chances more than anything else. The others simply confirmed their places for me.

Kizuna travelled beautifully and Take clearly didn't want to take much out of him, he was apparently 80% fit and can see him improving hugely in three weeks. ROTW surprised me but I can't see him reversing the form given how poorly his Derby form looks.

Treve was hugely impressive. Dettori gave her a terrible ride and she got him out of trouble. She deserves to be favourite having ran the quickest time and closing sectional of the three trials.

Orfevre simply had a canter and beat total trees. He is still lacking any top class form in recent months. He's not proved he's a better horse than last year and this is a stronger renewal.

I can see Novellist being the forgotten horse and hitting 8/9 on the day and I wouldn't rule out Al Kazeem for a place going right handed and he could hit 16/20.

Treve and Kizuna also have concerns over their running styles but Take was sensible and stayed wide. Something he should do on the day. You'd want to see both land wide draws rather than get run into the back of hounds like Camelot.
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I think you understand the form in terms of antepost betting better than most on here but I do think you are letting not winning on Orfevre last year hinder you seeing what was a very impressive prep. He has for me a better chance than 1 in 5.

I think your point about better field than last year is correct, but he annihilated that field, and lost by a quirk. On ability, he beats this field, as things stand.

Suny, I agreed with nearly everything you wrote up until you said he has a greater than 50% chance of winning!

Euro - Treve was very impressive, and 4s/5s not far off a fair reflection of her right price I would say. I think you would be better off going against Novelist at current prices.

Edited to say I think ROTW ran a better trial than Kizuna, and I don't have ROTW down as a potential Arc winner. Not sure any great 3 year olds this year.

I am off for a decent bet on Orfevre..
 
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Hamm said:
I think you understand the form in terms of antepost betting better than most on here but I do think you are letting not winning on Orfevre last year hinder you seeing what was a very impressive prep. He has for me a better chance than 1 in 5.
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This is probably a fair comment! I just would have liked to him have beaten a horse better than Rulership or Eishin Flash since last years Arc. I reckon you'll get 11/2 on the day if nothing comes out, it is that competitive. Firms crawl over themselves to offer best prices on the big races.
 
I understand the competitive angle but I can't see how he could be bigger than 4s with the field as it is?
 
As I say, I just really am concerned he hasn't beaten a decent horse for a long time. His two 2013 runs were beating very poor horses.

He isn't going to get any shorter now anyway. Might as well wait for the day in case anything happens to him.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
This is probably a fair comment! I just would have liked to him have beaten a horse better than Rulership or Eishin Flash since last years Arc. I reckon you'll get 11/2 on the day if nothing comes out, it is that competitive. Firms crawl over themselves to offer best prices on the big races.
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Gamla
I see your reading of the japanish form book should be improved and You must do your homework......
Rulership is a better horse than Al Kazeen or declaration of War
 
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sunybay said:
Gamla
I see your reading of the japanish form book should be improved and You must do your homework......
Rulership is a better horse than Al Kazeen or declaration of War
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I probably follow Japanese racing more than anyone in the UK! He hasn't beat Rulership for a long time and its doubtful there's much in it.

Is Eishin Flash better than Al Kazeem then?

So should Orfevre be odds on as you said?
 
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I dont live in UK

Al Kazeen is better than Eishen


I dont say Orfevre should be odds on today
with the risk of injuries or other antepost things
but if the race were run today with all healthy he is an odds on chance for me
well ahead of this field, Kizuna the only possible improver
 
If it was being run today on good ground I would go (in brackets if wide draw)

Orfevre 7/4 (5/2)
Kizuna 6/1 (16/1)
Treve 7/1 (12/1)
Flintshire 10/1 (12/1)
Novellist 10/1 (14/1)
Ruler of the World 18/1 (20/1)

25s Bar
 
I suspect about 12-14 will line up looking at the entries/Betfair.

Be 2/3 total no hopers as always. 4 if they supplement Leading Light.
 
Orfevre crashes through the rails taking Kizuna with him as Ruler Of The World and Leading Light zip past to complete a Ballydoyle 1-2. Gamla Stan spontaneously combusts. 3rd placed Novellist joins Godolphin. Next seen in a conditions race at Salisbury in 2015.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Orfevre crashes through the rails taking Kizuna with him as Ruler Of The World and Leading Light zip past to complete a Ballydoyle 1-2. Gamla Stan spontaneously combusts. 3rd placed Novellist joins Godolphin. Next seen in a conditions race at Salisbury in 2015.
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:lol:
 
It turned into an awful renewal because so many of the contenders couldn't handle the conditions. And whatever the **** the blue bin brigade have been up to with Masterstoke shouldn't detract from how progressive he looked last season.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Would you like to price the other runners up then assuming it was run today?!
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14 field, good or gs
Orfevre. Evens
Kizuna 5/1
Novelist. 8/1
Ruler of the world. 9/1
Flintshire. 10/1
Treve. 12/1
The fugue. 14/1
Camelot. 40/1
50/1 bar

Ew 123. 1/5

Al Kazeen and intello non runners
 
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