QM Champion Chase betting

For me, he is already starting to look like a good thing, links.

SDG's participation (let alone ability to win) has to be hugely questionable now, neither Al Ferof or Champagne Fever have 2m chase form anywhere near good enough to trouble Dodging Bullets....and I will be massively surprised if Sacre cannot find the 3L or so he needs to finish in front of Dodging Bullets.

In fact, the only real danger to Sprinter Sacre is much more likely to win the Arkle!! :lol:
 
Champagne Fever has got no chance of winning the QMCC unless it cuts up badly.

He was allowed an easy lead over 2m4f and at no time did he put any distance between himself and Don Cossack who needs every bit of 2m4f plus to be seen at his best

Brian Cooper was always within his comfort zone and just sat there 2 lengths behind him all the way round and although he had to be stoked up came upsides at the last ready to challenge him.

Chamagne Fever may well get an easy lead if he goes for the QMCC but the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy and possibly Dodging Bullets
won't be hanging about waiting like Cooper was.

One of them probably Sprinter Sacre will increase the pace after 3 out and go for it and Champagne Fever won't know what's hit him.

He'll need to go faster than he has ever gone in his life to take these 2 milers out of there comfort zone and I wouldn't give him a cat in hells chance of getting home if he tried to do that.

His only chance is if both SS and SDG don't turn up then he might sicken DB into submission but that alone is along shot......wasn't WM he'd be 20/1


That is only my opinion but I wouldn't back him at 20/1 if the others go to post
 
PS If that were the case that they weren't going I'd run UDS in the race who would takre DB out of his comfort zone and then some.

Best we can hope for Sprinter Sacre bounces back and hacks up then we have Sprinter Sacre V UDS to look forward to.
 
re: sacre. i'm on at 4/1 and hopeful. but i think you have to admit he's as likely to bounce as he is to come on.
 
Tanlic said:
PS If that were the case that they weren't going I'd run UDS in the race who would takre DB out of his comfort zone and then some.

Best we can hope for Sprinter Sacre bounces back and hacks up then we have Sprinter Sacre V UDS to look forward to.
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A back to form Sprinter vs UDS in the Tingle Creek
I'll get the tissues :lol:
 
think champ fever maybe be the biggest hype horse in racing and it seems like he still has something of a following. on chase form he hasn't done jacksh*t.
 
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Second in an Arkle despite no sort of prep
A nice run full of promise in the King George, just didn't get home.

His love for the track makes him a major contender and Finian's Rainbow like I expect a more confident, experienced horse 12 months on from his Arkle.
 
the arkle 2nd isn't great euro. he lost to western warhorse ffs. and the ones in behind weren't fantastic. he had a bad prep for the supreme as well and it didn't seem to bother him that time. don't think he ran that far below his best last march. was his best display of jumping and he still got beat.

laying up and travelling well in a king george doesn't mean he's a crack 2 miler.

as for confidence. you'd have to be hoping more than expecting after a tumble last time out.

the track is the only angle i can see for backing him. but if we're honest. the horse has disappointed more often than not over fences. i think he's verging on cliff horse status for a lot of people.
 
CF loves the track for sure.
CF better horse going left handed for sure.
CF a better horse on better going for sure.
To say a horse with speed enough to win a Champion Bumper and a Supreme Novice loses his speed because he runs over a longer trip ?
Think Sizing Europe; then think again.
 
JamesRB said:
doesn't make it a good race for me. he's likely just improved a fair amount. and i'm still not convinced on that horse either.
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I can understand why you might think that, as there's plenty of people who never saw an unconsidered and inexperienced Pipe horse winning (same as Well Chief), and from that they need to conclude that the Arkle was shite. I just don't think the evidence is there to necessary support that conclusion though once you dig away at it. I tended to take the opposite view actually. I think the Arkle was very much up to scratch and that it was the 2 mile Champion, which was already shorn of Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Sanctuaire that was weak

12 months ago Module beat Dodging Bullets in the Game Spirit by 0.25L's in receipt of 3Ibs at Newbury. A month later Module was finishing third in Champion Chase, beaten just 6.25L's by Sire de Grugy, with an old tug boat like Somersby splitting them. Let's just rerate the Game Spirit off levels using 1.1Ibs = 1L @ 2 miles, and (in theory) Dodging Bullets would have beaten Module by 2.5L's (2.75L's for weight and the 0.25L's going back the other way for race result distance)

Had both horses competed in the Champion Chase and run to the same level, Dodging Bullets would have expected to beat Module by this distance, which would have been good enough to come second in losing to Sire de Grugy by 3.75L's (remember Hinterland was travelling as well as anything before being left with no where to go when Special Tiara, I think it was, came down)

There is additional evidence on the clock just using raw times.

Arkle = 3.47.04
Champion = 3.48.49

The Arkle was run 1.45 secs quicker.

The Arkle horses carry 6Ibs less, which is worth about 5.5L's and so using 0.2 secs equals a length, therefore, about 1.10 secs. The ground normally rides a bit quicker on the Wednesday, but even without giving the novices a concession in this direction (which we ought to) Western Warhorse has run about 0.35 secs faster than Sire de Grugy, as too has Champagne Fever.

If we say then that Champagne Fever has run 0.30 faster, he's about 1.5L's quicker than Sire de Grugy over C&D on a different day.

We've already seen that on collateral form extrapolated from Module and the Game Spirit, Dodging Bullets would have finished 3.75L's behind Sire de Grgugy. If Champagne Fever is projected to beat him by 1.5L's on the respective race times, Dodging Bullets would be about 5.25L's behind Champagne Fever. As it happens, he finished 5L's behind Western Warhorse. It's remarkably close using two different indicators

I think the secret to Champagne Fever is a seasonal pattern to be honest. It isn't difficult to spot

Dec & Jan = 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, F = 14%
other months = 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 1 = 70%
 
Time to come out of my 9 month hibernation. The debate on this thread is enough to rouse me out of my slumber.

The first thing I'd say is that Mullins should seriously consider running UDS in the QM and let Vautour go for The Arkle. CF would be better suited in the Ryanair.

Assuming that doesn't happen CF and SDG are the best priced options for the QM. I'd have serious concerns about SS getting back to his best and his best will be required this year. I wouldn't be put off by SDG today who was going well enough before he fell. He may well have won even with that first major error. As for CF, I'm with those who think his form stands up. Yes his career over fences hasn't been plain sailing but his record at the festival is excellent, especially that Supreme win which was a very strong field. My fear with him is that he may just tow the others round and get picked off.

One things for sure, its shaping to be the best field in this race for some time.
 
I think another thing to consider is history. Of all Cheltenham's novice races, the Arkle is about the best pointer to future success in its corresponding open equivalent

Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe, Voy Por Ustedes, Azertyuiop, and Moscow Flyer have all won both races, Moscow was a two time winner, and if you stretch a broken renewal, Flagship Uberallaes is another qualifier. You can probably account for 7 of the last 14 renewals on Arkie winners alone. If it weren't for a nostril hair, Champagne Fever would be joining that list. In doing so it would have been have been his third festival win in a different race each time, and he'd be going for an unprecedented fourth this year where ever he turns up. On paper at least, he looks like having better credentials than Dodging Bullets
 
SDG was beaten before the unseat on my reading of the race, TheBear - the errors becoming more pronounced as the tempo increased, and he was already off the bridle when he unshipped Moore.

I would not be surprised in the slightest if he missed the Festival on the back of this (ran as if something was amiss in the final half-mile or so) and he'd now be just-about the worst single-figure-price horse, in all of the Festival ante-post markets....imho.
 
Warbler said:
I can understand why you might think that, as there's plenty of people who never saw an unconsidered and inexperienced Pipe horse winning (same as Well Chief), and from that they need to conclude that the Arkle was shite. I just don't think the evidence is there to necessary support that conclusion though once you dig away at it. I tended to take the opposite view actually. I think the Arkle was very much up to scratch and that it was the 2 mile Champion, which was already shorn of Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Sanctuaire that was weak

12 months ago Module beat Dodging Bullets in the Game Spirit by 0.25L's in receipt of 3Ibs at Newbury. A month later Module was finishing third in Champion Chase, beaten just 6.25L's by Sire de Grugy, with an old tug boat like Somersby splitting them. Let's just rerate the Game Spirit off levels using 1.1Ibs = 1L @ 2 miles, and (in theory) Dodging Bullets would have beaten Module by 2.5L's (2.75L's for weight and the 0.25L's going back the other way for race result distance)

Had both horses competed in the Champion Chase and run to the same level, Dodging Bullets would have expected to beat Module by this distance, which would have been good enough to come second in losing to Sire de Grugy by 3.75L's (remember Hinterland was travelling as well as anything before being left with no where to go when Special Tiara, I think it was, came down)

There is additional evidence on the clock just using raw times.

Arkle = 3.47.04
Champion = 3.48.49

The Arkle was run 1.45 secs quicker.

The Arkle horses carry 6Ibs less, which is worth about 5.5L's and so using 0.2 secs equals a length, therefore, about 1.10 secs. The ground normally rides a bit quicker on the Wednesday, but even without giving the novices a concession in this direction (which we ought to) Western Warhorse has run about 0.35 secs faster than Sire de Grugy, as too has Champagne Fever.

If we say then that Champagne Fever has run 0.30 faster, he's about 1.5L's quicker than Sire de Grugy over C&D on a different day.

We've already seen that on collateral form extrapolated from Module and the Game Spirit, Dodging Bullets would have finished 3.75L's behind Sire de Grgugy. If Champagne Fever is projected to beat him by 1.5L's on the respective race times, Dodging Bullets would be about 5.25L's behind Champagne Fever. As it happens, he finished 5L's behind Western Warhorse. It's remarkably close using two different indicators

I think the secret to Champagne Fever is a seasonal pattern to be honest. It isn't difficult to spot

Dec & Jan = 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, F = 14%
other months = 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 1 = 70%
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great analysis warbler. you make a compelling case.

i think my comments around CF are more of a general diatribe than focusing on this one race. there's no doubt that, for whatever reason, the horse routinely runs his best at cheltenham and is probably a fair e/w bet for the cc. but some seem to think the horse is or can be a superstar, when in truth he's done very little since his hurdling career to be considered such. he has a lot to prove to me.
 
His Festival record is 1/1/2

His profile suggests he'll be a better hurdler than a chaser

He jumps like a stag

He's 7/1 in a renewal featuring a couple of superstars who have had no sort of season and not much else in essence

I don't see what's not to like
 
I'm going to guess your 2nd point should be the other way around?

I've watched the race again Grassy and I don't see what you see. Connections don't seem too concerned either.
 
While SDG would be better off without making the mistakes it should help get his eye in.
Funnily enough it was the same fence Kings Palace made a horlicks of so they may have been a reason.
For the QMCC you would prefer horses that have a clear run up to the race.
Our bookie man on The Morning Line spoke of the possibility of SS being as high as 7 or 8/1 on the day!
The market must be quite fragile so and as this thread is essentially a betting one we should not be teasing out any value?
As a euro each way man Hidden Cyclone was value at 33s.
Now he is value at roughly twice Champagne Fever's price to me at any rate.
Cf is value at 7 or 8 but the top three are not really value at the minute though SDG is getting there.
 
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