QM Champion Chase betting

Dodging bullets is the forgotten horse of this race. He has the best form this season and I'll be backing him on the day. Couldn't have SS - he might win but there's too much guesswork involved to back him. To be honest I reckon there's a chance he might not even run - Nicky will be shitting himself after yesterday.


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EC1 said:
thanks for the reply Tanlic

I think my point is being missed a bit though. I don't think weight affects bad horses any different to very good horses

I'll equate an example to athletics to show this..it applies to horses just the same..seeing as gravity affects us all.

a 50 year old man runs a 400 metre race carrying a haversack with 6 house bricks in it..lets say he runs that in 65 seconds.

An olympic 400 metre champion also runs the 400 metre carrying a haversack with 6 house bricks in it..he runs in it lets say 50 seconds

They then run both races again without the house bricks

They will both run faster..so taking weight off a slow runner or a fast runner will aid them to go faster

So it has nothing to do with how good an athlete/horse is..its plain old mass/acceleration ect

That is why saying taking off weight won't make a horse go faster..is actually defying the law of gravity.

It doesn't make any logical sense.

Its like yesterdays race...if you took a stone off SDG..will he run faster..of course he would

Its got nothing to with a ability....a 0-60 flat horse is exposed to exactly the same gravity as Frankel
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I think it needs to be remembered that force x mass = acceleration leaves open the probability that different levels of forces are being applied at the start of the process. A stronger horse can apply more force etc and this move a greater mass (weight in this case) more quickly. It's equally true that the greatest 'burn' occurs at lift off, albeit in a horse this process doesn't last much more than the first 75yds, and even accelerating from a flowing state isn't that taxing once momentum has been generated. In some cases coming on a downhill section can shorten this time lag if you've got a stamina laden horse who doesn't possess the fast twitch density of their rivals

The 400m isn't quite right though as it makes the slight error of trasnfering a stopping human weight, onto a horse. Horses are much stronger and powerful and can carry weight to little detriment. For instance what would be the effect of asking a human to run round with a few pound coins in their pocket? Negligible

The real dynamic that weight involves though is the energy that is being expended to shift it. The horse isn't necessarily running faster, but is able to sustain that same speed for longer by virtue of not using up as much energy to transport the burden, (which results in a faster time). It's an expression of stamina really, which is why Cheltenham is kind of unique in the equine context as so many of its races are run at a 'championship pace' that rewards stamina based speed rather than the tactical speed you might see in preparation where races can be settled by a decisive burst of acceleration 3 furlongs out

I think there is always mileage in looking at TS and RPR figures in the lead up to try and isolate those races in prep which have been run at a true pace, as these are likely to be more informative given that they're advertising a horses prospects to deal with the likely pace scenario they'll be faced with. There is of course the horse who hasn't been required to run off a strong pace yet who subsequently proves they're up to it the first time they're asked to. You see these in novice hurdles particularly, but you also see plenty of visually impressive horses who've been winning jog and sprints who get taken off their feet the first time they're exposed to a searching test. These are very often fancied runners for having put up impressive on the eye runs
 
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I could start going into max stride length etc and turn this into a science project but I have no despite to do so. You say you have worked in yards and ridden racehorses Benny but you seem totally unaware that any jockey or trainer will tell you the lack of weight doesn't make a slow horse into a fast one.?

They either have it or they don't and reducing the weight they carry won't change the fact you can't pull blood out of a stone
 
Tanlic said:
I could start going into max stride length etc and turn this into a science project but I have no despite to do so. You say you have worked in yards and ridden racehorses Benny but you seem totally unaware that any jockey or trainer will tell you the lack of weight doesn't make a slow horse into a fast one.?

They either have it or they don't and reducing the weight they carry won't change the fact you can't pull blood out of a stone
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you don't need to delve too deep Tanlic

no one on here has ever said you can turn a slow horse into a fast one..not sure where you have got that from tbh..that isn't what i have ever suggested.

its clear that whatever perfomance any horse puts up will involve carrying weight...if a horse carries 12.00 it will run slower than if it carried 10.00..in fact any increment between these will change the time it will take to run from A to B

you can't change the law of gravity and how it effects distance travelled/weight carried just for horse racing really

There isn't anything that can run faster carrying more mass..

its a simple fact that if you time anything between A & B when it does carry mass..then if that mass is reduced the time will be faster
 
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Yes but what your pointing out is metahuman physics that belong in Barry Allen's and Stark Industries collaboratory notebook and has no place within the limits of National Hunt Horse racing handicapping
 
not at all...its just common sense..to anyone that actually thinks about what we are discussing.

everyone that handicaps horses also believes they speed up or slow down as weight is applied or taken off..or there would be no handicap system at all

my question then is..by how much do we allow a horse a rating from carry the weight.

take Houblon des obleux..keeps getting well rated due to carrying weight in handicaps..but that rating then doesn't translate to lengths when racing in non handicaps

basically..he seems to carry weight better than the average horse..so can run well carrying weight..his rating then is set to reflect getting beaten but carrying a lot of weight..a rating that is too high in real terms when racing outside handicap comapany
 
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I can put your mind at rest folks that SDG is home and hosed after yesterday ,relaxed and eating up. He will take some beating in March and Jamie will take some beating in riding
 
Ask yourself this EC: How mush less weight would Mr Grez have to have carried to have beaten Sire De Grugy yesterday?

He carried 9stone 7lbs yesterday had IMO if he carried 6stone 7lbs he still wouldn't have got close to winning because it just isn't there to start with.

If a horse covers only 7.4m per stride no lack of weight will lengthen that stride but add weight and it will shorten it.

The speed in which he takes between each stride barely changes with weight below a certain mark and that is a scientific fact. There's a scientific table somewhere and it's something like .000098 second to .000096 seconds per pound per stride and on average over 2 miles a horse will take 475 strides per race....It becomes barely noticeable the less weight the horse carries......like 11 stone to 9 stone is noticeable but 6 stone to 5 stone is negligible. In NH Racing the minimum is set at 10 stone because anything below that has little affect on a big MF horse
 
EC1 said:
a rating that is too high in real terms when racing outside handicap comapany
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Exactly this.

It is why I am always slightly sceptical of official marks (I find most handicappers are simply too quick to bump up an official mark on the back of a single performance), and why I'm always impressed when a highly-rated horse wins a competitive handicap.
 
its not about stride though Tanlic..its about maintaining it

you are arguing with reality

i'm not arguing that Mr Grez could have won.

Hypothetically..If we could get a horse to run to its if potential without a jockey..you would then have its baseline ability..as with Greyhounds.

then youput a jockey on its back..it would not be able to run as fast as without a jockey..overall time A to B we are talking...because its carrying a burden.

Take the jockey off again and the horse can run its baseline ability again. So taking weight off..doesn't make it run faster than its baseline ability..just faster than with the weight of a jockey on.

The same when the jockey is in place..the horse's new baseline ability is with a jockey on..if that jockey then has weights added..then the horse will run slower than its "Jockey" baseline

Horse basic speed = stage 1
Horse basic speed with 10.0 jockey = stage 2
Horse basic speed with a variety of weights above 10.0 = stage 3

3 different stages of getting from A to B in a certain time..each additional step up in stage slows the horse down..and when reversed the horse goes back to stage 1 and can run A to B quicker than stage 3
 
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I don't think it's too difficult to understand, the problem occurs in trying to quantify it

A horse has a cubic capacity defined by its lungs, and a ceiling defined by its biomechanics. As I said, if it can't get it's front legs out in time it'll end up nose first in the turf.

The stride length is also related to its fast twitch (how many times can it put the stride in). I think perhaps the nearest thing we have in sport might be rowing strokes per minute. A Shire horse might conceivably have a longer stride, or a chaser more than a sprinter for being bigger, but which would you back over 5 furlongs?

What weight does do though is wear a horse down and this determines how long it can sustain that speed for. I think the cirtical thing to remember is that its the same speed though

Try another line.....

Horse has a topspeed of 40mph under 12st. It can run at this speed for 2000 yards before it starts to experience fatigue
Horse still has a topspeed of 40mph under 10st. It can run at this speed for 2500 yards before it starts to experience fatigue
Horse still runs the same speed and therefore doesn't get faster for the weight reduction, but will record an overall faster time by virtue of being able to sustain that speed for longer

Now the question is how do you measure this dynamic reliably to help you assess the merit of a performance. With weight increases it's reasonably easy. And we know that horses slow up faster for a weight increase, than they speed up for a weight reduction. The conventional handicap by weight and distance table therefore sets a maximum figure which we know we can't exceed. Similarly other research based on quantitatiev crunching has set a minimum figure based on close same horses running against each other close proximity (dates wise) and at different weights. This does however risk capturing natural deterioration in the horse and putting it down to weight dynamic when it could actually be performance. The answer is somewhere in bewteen then, but where?
 
I'm just trying to keep it simple tbh

the 3 stages is simple..and shows that no..you cannot make a horse go faster than its basic ability..but you can slow that basic ability down...and speed it back up to its basic ability..by adding and reducing weight
 
Let me simplify it.

Arkle 12stone 10lbs Height of Fashion 9stone 7lbs winning distance 1 length

What would have happened if Arkle had carried 10 stone and Height of Fashion had carried 6stone 11lbs?

Would the winning distance still have been a length?

Or would Arkle have lapped her? :cool:
 
Tanlic said:
Let me simplify it.

Arkle 12stone 10lbs Height of Fashion 9stone 7lbs winning distance 1 length

What would have happened if Arkle had carried 10 stone and Height of Fashion had carried 6stone 11lbs?

Would the winning distance still have been a length?

Or would Arkle have lapped her? :cool:
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i'll have to leave it to others now
 
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Getting back to the QMCC EC, I meant to ask you. How do you feel about Sam Twiston Davies getting back on Dodging Bullets? I assume he will ride.

Personally I can't see him lasting at Ditcheat he can be a bollocks of a jockey in comparison to Noel Fehily imo

Have a look at the ride he gave All Yours at Kempton in the Adonis.

Tom O'Brian was on the best horse without question and swept past everything. He must have gone 4 lengths ahead of T-D before he woke up and said I better do something.

He got beat on two horses today and I thought he should have done better as neither was given a real chance to win......Again he seemed to wait too long before reacting to what is happening around him.


His strike rate considering who he rides for is atrocious. He could end up costing PN the Championship in the future.
 
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He is very in and out i find..he certainly wouldn't encourage me to back a horse..just because he was on it. He can be very good..then again so can Spencer
 
Nicky Henderson on Sprinter Sacre: "We have had our one run and he has done a lot of work since. He is spot on."
 
I saw some recent pictures of Sprinter Sacre today......I wonder what Lydia Hislop's paddock watchers would say about the condition of his neck now ?

If he loses at Cheltenham it won't be on looks
 
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