QM Champion Chase betting

TheBear said:
This, the World Hurdle & The RSA are hurting my head.
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You're not alone they're hurting everyone's head Bear, too many will he wont he's.

I backed Pipes for the RSA but greened up on it because Don Poli might run and backed Rock on Ruby (drifted) because I thought More of That wouldn't run

Seems backing anything Ante Post in either is fraught with danger.
 
granger said:
Given that he was available at 4/1 on the day last year, I'll hold out on a SDG bet
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I'm not sure you'll get better than the current best price 7/2. Timeform just tweeted the Sire De Grugy win at Chepstow was best 2m performance of season.

https://twitter.com/Timeform1948/status/570232356767961088

Not because of that alone, but on the day itself, I think the Sire will go off Fav and the bookies will take on Sprinter.
 
If SDG doesn't win the QM..then they got it badly wrong

Personally..i think they got it badly wrong...Mr Mole running all over SDG last time..giving a 10 length start... is the best 2 mile form imo..followed by DB beating an aeroplane

we'll see in a couple of weeks
 
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I thought SDG's jumping was extravagant, brilliant at some and chancy at others, thought he was very lucky not to land on one like he did the time before.
 
EC1 said:
If SDG doesn't win the QM..then they got it badly wrong

Personally..i think they got it badly wrong...Mr Mole running all over SDG last time..giving a 10 length start... is the best 2 mile form imo..followed by DB beating an aeroplane

we'll see in a couple of weeks
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Ah! You have switched to Mr. Mole.

I like the horse but let's call a spade a spade here.

Mr. Mole has won nothing of note and was slaughtered by Rock On Ruby. That race at Newbury was a million miles away from a QMCC pace and Mr. Mole will be taken off his feet and think he's gone into orbit

Dodging Bullets won the poxiest Tingle Creek in history then beat Sprinter Sacre who looked a shadow of himself by a poxy 3 lengths.

Sire De Grugy looked like a totally different horse at the weekend and all being well will improve yet again in the next fortnight.

NJH Nico and Barry Geraghty are all adamant that Sprinter Sacre has shown amazing improvement and is almost back to his old self and you think he can't make up 3 lengths on a second rate Tingle Creek winner.

Mr Mole is rated 20lbs below Sire De Grugy and they are offering 8/1? and Sprinter Sacre was a 192 + horse.

We have the best 2 mile chasers coming back from ailments........Sure one of them might fall by the wayside but both?

Better you than me sitting hoping both of them will fail to show their best form or near to it.

At current odds Sprinter Scare and Sire De Grugy are better than evens for one to win and to me that's the banker bet of the meeting
 
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Ah! You have switched to Mr. Mole.

not really switched..like most people on dozens of threads like these through the build up you reassess as the season goes on...before MM won i could easily see DB being the SDG of last year..in fact he is..all the experts ignoring him whilst he won everything..a bit like Many Clouds.. ..so underestimated each time and wins..i like horses like that..you get a decent price

Mr. Mole has won nothing of note and was slaughtered by Rock On Ruby.

yes..that was Feb 2014,,i think MM has improved a little since then..he was rated 147 then..so he has improved at least 20lbs on official ratings..his OHR now 165 doesn't really reflect his full ability either does it?..as it ignores ease of win at Newbury and giving them a start.


That race at Newbury was a million miles away from a QMCC pace and Mr. Mole will be taken off his feet and think he's gone into orbit

Is that the same pace that caught SDG out and left him floundering ..then falling?

Dodging Bullets won the poxiest Tingle Creek in history then beat Sprinter Sacre who looked a shadow of himself by a poxy 3 lengths.

Decently rated horses behind shows it wasn't a poxy race at all really.

Sire De Grugy looked like a totally different horse at the weekend and all being well will improve yet again in the next fortnight.

Didn't look any different to me..won a small field handicap where only one horse might have run its race..wow

NJH Nico and Barry Geraghty are all adamant that Sprinter Sacre has shown amazing improvement and is almost back to his old self and you think he can't make up 3 lengths on a second rate Tingle Creek winner.

Any evidence of that?..what exactly do you think those two are going to say?..oooh dear..he's back but the old spark has gone but we gonna run him anyway in case others don't put their best in..or are they going to go on a PR exercise for people who lap it up hook line + sinker..i'm not sure on that one.

IF SS is back to his best he wins easy..a big if in my world..in yours a cert..is where we differ.

Mr Mole is rated 20lbs below Sire De Grugy and they are offering 8/1? and Sprinter Sacre was a 192 + horse.

SDG is rated 172 and MM is rated 165..let me work this out..i make that 7..not 20...you need your abacus oiling laddie:)...plus he won head in chest..and each time he runs this year he just gets better..have you not actually noticed the progression?

We have the best 2 mile chasers coming back from ailments........Sure one of them might fall by the wayside but both?

I would say there is a very good chance both will go very well..are they back to their best?..we don't know..and i have no intention whatsover of backing horses because NH tells me a load of old flannel

Better you than me sitting hoping both of them will fail to show their best form or near to it.

It doesn't worry me in the least what wins..i make my money throughout the year..what i have on at Cheltenham wouldn't make me nervous either way..i don't really care what wins at Cheltenham..its a spectacle to me..the bets are an aside..not life threatening. In one way i'd like to see SS win by 15 lengths..but then i think..no..that means we will never hear the last of it from Tanlic..oh f00k:)...so to be fair i'll just watch and enjoy with my usual Cheltenham type stake on thanks. I don't lose my stakes 6 months beforehand backing antepost on horses that 25% won't even turn up..so i ain't got those loses to pull back before the first day even kicks off. I start the week off 0.00 not minus 2000...that helps

At current odds Sprinter Scare and Sire De Grugy are better than evens for one to win and to me that's the banker bet of the meeting

its actually you that needs to be nervous if you staking to match that statement:)
 
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Double Handful said:
I'm not sure you'll get better than the current best price 7/2. Timeform just tweeted the Sire De Grugy win at Chepstow was best 2m performance of season.

https://twitter.com/Timeform1948/status/570232356767961088

Not because of that alone, but on the day itself, I think the Sire will go off Fav and the bookies will take on Sprinter.
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Two thngs

1) Ruby/Willie train
2) Sentimental punters wanting to back the horse with the best lifetime form in the race
 
edgt said:
A fascinating build up no doubt.
This will be the race of the Festival and hats off to whoever gets it right !
I am delighted to see so many of the horses in apparently good form with themselves.
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Yes, I pretty much agree with all that. I just hope it lives up to the build-up and doesn't end up in some awful anticlimax won by a 150 rag.

(Unless it's my 150 rag Croco Bay! :):))
 
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EC1 said:
Ah! You have switched to Mr. Mole.

not really switched..like most people on dozens of threads like these through the build up you reassess as the season goes on...before MM won i could easily see DB being the SDG of last year..in fact he is..all the experts ignoring him whilst he won everything..a bit like Many Clouds.. ..so underestimated each time and wins..i like horses like that..you get a decent price...MM doesn't stand for Master Minded:) although PN wishes it did....but yes you are entitled to change your mind...I did with Holywell and Jezki to Faugheen

Mr. Mole has won nothing of note and was slaughtered by Rock On Ruby.

yes..that was Feb 2014,,i think MM has improved a little since then..he was rated 147 then..so he has improved at least 20lbs on official ratings..his OHR now 165 doesn't really reflect his full ability either does it?..as it ignores ease of win at Newbury and giving them a start. I could have given those mules a start and beat them


That race at Newbury was a million miles away from a QMCC pace and Mr. Mole will be taken off his feet and think he's gone into orbit

Is that the same pace that caught SDG out and left him floundering ..then falling? Not even a similarity between the 2..why you think MM caught up with them so easily.........does that in the QMCC an he'll be lapped

Dodging Bullets won the poxiest Tingle Creek in history then beat Sprinter Sacre who looked a shadow of himself by a poxy 3 lengths.

Decently rated horses behind shows it wasn't a poxy race at all really. "It wash a shockingly bad Tingle Creek with an old has-been running 2nd and Hinterland ffs in 3rd" Unless you think Balder Succes ran his race (I should coco) it was a crap race by qmcc standards

Sire De Grugy looked like a totally different horse at the weekend and all being well will improve yet again in the next fortnight.

Didn't look any different to me..won a small field handicap where only one horse might have run its race..wow "Never said anything about the race I was talking about the horse who jumped with total confidence, traveled better and of course finished better"

NJH Nico and Barry Geraghty are all adamant that Sprinter Sacre has shown amazing improvement and is almost back to his old self and you think he can't make up 3 lengths on a second rate Tingle Creek winner.

Any evidence of that?..what exactly do you think those two are going to say?..oooh dear..he's back but the old spark has gone but we gonna run him anyway in case others don't put their best in..or are they going to go on a PR exercise for people who lap it up hook line + sinker..i'm not sure on that one. "Plenty evidence of it if you know what to look for "Loads of pics of him at Ascot and many people noticed the lack of condition on his neck" Go look at a few and look at the recent ones he looks a lot stronger in that department alone" "There's also a couple of vides of him and as I remarked a few days ago if he's beaten it won't be on looks.....he looks fantastic"

IF SS is back to his best he wins easy..a big if in my world..in yours a cert..is where we differ. As NJH has openly said "you simply can't be certain" but if he's improved 7lbs from Ascot that would be enough to win the race" So much for you saying NJH would say anything.....he was being honest when interviewed........many people who know horses inside out were there and saw the horse of NJH was pulling the wool over there eyes the media would be full of opinions of disagreement.have you seen even one saying they disagreed with him saying he's in great nick?

Mr Mole is rated 20lbs below Sire De Grugy and they are offering 8/1? and Sprinter Sacre was a 192 + horse.

SDG is rated 172 and MM is rated 165..let me work this out..i make that 7..not 20...you need your abacus oiling laddie:)...plus he won head in chest..and each time he runs this year he just gets better..have you not actually noticed the progression? "He was rated 155 going into what turned out to be apoor race SDG running miles below his best and he's been dropped to an OR of 152 according to the Racing post" Blame them for not updating but 165 puts him ahead of eg Champagne Fever which is laughable if you compare what each has done. He's gone up for beating a 150 rated horse who was a 143 rated horse until he beat an old timer out of NJH yard who I believe has since been retired and before that he was given 8lbs and a beating by Grey Gold who couldn't get near SDG if he was getting 4 stone......talk about a false rating????

We have the best 2 mile chasers coming back from ailments........Sure one of them might fall by the wayside but both?

I would say there is a very good chance both will go very well..are they back to their best?..we don't know..and i have no intention whatsover of backing horses because NH tells me a load of old flannel
Do they have to be back to their best....It would be a pretty poor race without them
Better you than me sitting hoping both of them will fail to show their best form or near to it.

It doesn't worry me in the least what wins..i make my money throughout the year..what i have on at Cheltenham wouldn't make me nervous either way..i don't really care what wins at Cheltenham..its a spectacle to me..the bets are an aside..not life threatening. In one way i'd like to see SS win by 15 lengths..but then i think..no..that means we will never hear the last of it from Tanlic..oh f00k:)...so to be fair i'll just watch and enjoy with my usual Cheltenham type stake on thanks. I don't lose my stakes 6 months beforehand backing antepost on horses that 25% won't even turn up..so i ain't got those loses to pull back before the first day even kicks off. I start the week off 0.00 not minus 2000...that helps

At current odds Sprinter Scare and Sire De Grugy are better than evens for one to win and to me that's the banker bet of the meeting

its actually you that needs to be nervous if you staking to match that statement:)
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Nervous my ass........Only time I was nervous it did me good when I missed clicking a lay on Don't Push It:)

I've been backing Sprinter Sacre for months on end and am hock deep in the horse.......come the day if he is low enough I will take my 63 stakes to date stake and still have a bundle to pick up if he wins:) I too like to make money.

Really it's not a case of being nervous it's a very sensible bet and stacks the odds in your fav imo......I got sick of choosing between 2 or 3 and picking the wrong one years ago and will dutch when real doubt sets in but I'm not at that stage just yet.........I can't see many of these coping with the mid race pace of Champagne Fever when it picks up if Sprinter comes alongside......I reckon they will be strung out like monday's washing by the time they reach the top of the hill with only SDG capable of getting in a blow..............lets look back and see how close I am after the race :lol:

Think I'l go and back Mr Mole now :lol:
 
I must be mad talking about laying off some of my bet on Sprinter Sacre:blink:......not one bad vibe has come back to me and I'm told from a very good source today what Nicky Henderson said and what he actually thinks is 10lbs below where the horse actually is.

So **** it I just took some more 4.1, in for a penny in for a pound and I am laying off nothing
 
Ifyoiu are quick and need the money you can have 100 pounds on and lay him back at 7.2 on the machine for a massive 7 pounds profit.

Whats the limit you can have on? 20 quid or what? if it's 20 quid you'll make 1.40p..think I'll pass
 
Shark Hanlon admits Hidden Cyclone's Cheltenham engagement is likely to be dictated by the ground after he too worked following the meeting.

The 10-year-old bounced back to winning form with a comfortable success in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown last time and retains entries in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Ryanair Chase.

Hidden Cyclone finished second to Dynaste in the two-mile-five-furlong Ryanair last term but having won over two miles last time, soft ground would tempt Hanlon to take the shorter option of the Queen Mother.

He said: "We won't make a decision yet on him. If it's soft ground it'll be more than likely the Queen Mother, but if it's good I'm thinking strongly about the Ryanair.

"Patrick (Mullins) rode him to have someone different on him. I did the same thing last year and he ran well."
 
Well he'll still be no wiser on the Tuesday because Claise will announce its good to soft like he does every single year. Doesn't matter if we've had a drought or a flood.
 
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