QM Champion Chase betting

Not sure he's worth a punt. You're backing about him running and retaining his ability. If he runs I'll just enjoy watching. 2's or less doesn't exactly scream value! Anyone backing him before he's declared must be barking even if he wins.
 
And he may or he may not. Just as he may or may not run.

I dont believe anyone who understands horses or gambling, or both, could seriously consider backing him right now.

He may run and win by half the track, but it would still have been a terrible bet.
 
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Agree. Something not at all right here or nicky the needle has completely lost his nerve.

i cannot understand why a 2m trot round ascot should be "gruelling" . It won't be bottomless and he knows that and the horse does cope with it. Newbury is far more likely to be a challenge.

Is it worth stating that denman's connections faced a very similar and didnt exactly take an easy option ?.

Something wrong here
 
I doubt they'd even contemplate running him if they thought he'd run the 20 odd pounds below he'd need to to lose it, and the trepidation is entirely understandable in that they won't want a slog in the mud for his re-introduction.
The 2/1 is effectively a simple bet on the weather.
 
Not so sure about that. QM the target and NJH has said he must have a prep run. I wouldn't be too surprised if he gets beaten
I did think they wouldn't run unless confident of winning but have changed my mind on that.
What do. you guys think his price will be if he's declared?
 
He's never needed a 'fitness' run in his life, indeed has run a new pb every seasonal debut until his problem surfaced last year. His jumping may be a little rusty, as per his recent gallop, but the prep would likely be more mental than physical.
On ground no worse than soft, and the slight doubt about his heart, I'd rate him a 1/2 shot, regardless of the market.
 
archie said:
Between 4/6 and 6/4 and no way a betting proposition unless you're in the inner circle. Ditto for March.
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I've heard about this inner circle......Ruby and Barry see each other on a regular basis as you will know if you follow Irish Racing.

Away from the media and public ears Jockeys talk to each other and without a doubt Ruby will have asked Barry what he thought after Newbury and how the horse was.

Just recently Ruby wrote an article about how impressed he was by Sprinter Sacre at Newbury and how fantastic he looked and he reckoned back to his best or some mumbo jumbo like that.

Now could it be Ruby had a little bit of a chat with Barry before writing that article or did he completely wing it at the risk of looking a fool?.........I think you just visited the inner circle. :)
 
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reet hard said:
He's never needed a 'fitness' run in his life, indeed has run a new pb every seasonal debut until his problem surfaced last year. His jumping may be a little rusty, as per his recent gallop, but the prep would likely be more mental than physical.
On ground no worse than soft, and the slight doubt about his heart, I'd rate him a 1/2 shot, regardless of the market.
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I'd rate Archie a 1/4 shot to killed in the stampede if he was a bookie offering 6/4 come Saturday afternoon........Hope you are not a on course bookie Archie would hate to lose a good poster:lol:
 
no more rain and it should be back to what geraghty walked on yesterday which njh said they would race on

i think he'll run and 2/1 against this lot is mightily tempting. purely as i think they wouldn't dare run him if he didn't seem right and he looked fine at newbury. never know till you get the full test of a race though.
 
Good man Perp thanks!

If that is correct (it's still soft) he's 99% certain to run.....fingers crossed!

Dodging Bullets 6/4 is currently clear favourite

I guess the bookies are still asleep

Don't think you need to wait until Saturday as the AP markets close today when the overnights are known I believe
 
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JamesRB said:
no more rain and it should be back to what geraghty walked on yesterday which njh said they would race on

i think he'll run and 2/1 against this lot is mightily tempting. purely as i think they wouldn't dare run him if he didn't seem right and he looked fine at newbury. never know till you get the full test of a race though.
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Not much chance of 2/1 now James. My bet is if you try and get the 15/8's shown on Oddschecker you'll get knocked back for anything over 20p :lol:

I took 2.86 as soon as Perpetual posted and the last few minutes the hundreds that were available to back SS at odds of 2.5 and above had disappeared and there's a grand total of 6 pounds at 2.72 and 100 pounds is all thats left from a few grand and those who laid him for that 100 pounds are probably still sleeping.........looks like the water babies are running to the hills.

It will be interesting to see what happens price wise as the day goes on.
 
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Tanlic said:
I'd rate Archie a 1/4 shot to killed in the stampede if he was a bookie offering 6/4 come Saturday afternoon........Hope you are not a on course bookie Archie would hate to lose a good poster:lol:
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:cool:
Not sure whether to say thanks or not! I still think that playing at 6/4 on Saturday makes less sense than going at 2/1 NRNB for the QM.
 
Tanlic said:
Good man Perp thanks!

If that is correct (it's still soft) he's 99% certain to run.....fingers crossed!

Dodging Bullets 6/4 is currently clear favourite

I guess the bookies are still asleep

Don't think you need to wait until Saturday as the AP markets close today when the overnights are known I believe
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Worth laying DB now
 
The way I look at it Archie is if he wins one he will most likely win the other. If something goes badly wrong heartwise on Saturday then obviously he won't run.

I lost a few quid when he missed the TC but if he wins the Clarence House my loss plus the liability in the QMCC drops to ziltch

so I am chasing losses plus trying to catch them before they take place. 1 out of 3 would do for me as long as it's the QMCC but 2 would be exceptionally nice.

I'm not betting on whether I think he can beat any chaser in the land. That I know he can do.

I'm betting on his heart problem making next to no difference at all to him as soon as he steps on to that racecourse

The problem he had almost never comes back and is self healing or so I have read.

The opposition is moderate, the ground should be fine and the plan has always been to bring him back when he is ready to win.......if it wasn't and all they wanted was a run he'd have run in the Tingle Creek...
 
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