From BHA site.
Road to Royal Ascot, 2023
- Thread starter an capall
- Start date
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
My thoughts on each race for today. These were written on Sunday afternoon/evening, relate to my ratings tables and prices mentioned were as then. You might not hear much from me again this week if this lot get donald ducked.
2.30 - There has to be a chance I’m over-rating Mutasaabeq’s reappearance performance. The figure appears to be solid enough but it was a small field and he got to dictate his own pace. People are suggesting he’ll need those circumstances again to reproduce the form and a disappointing run in the 12-strong Lockinge appears to support that view. However, sectionals tell us he took them along too fast in the Lockinge – which might have been due to the bigger field – and he might also have bounced. I’ve taken 18/1 each-way to three places but you can get the fourth place to shorter odds with a number of bookies. He might still struggle to beat Inspiral anyway. She was able to show her very best form first time up last season so my usual worries about backing G1 horses to run to their best form on their seasonal debut are pretty much allayed. If Pogo drifts from 100/1 I might have a very small bet on him to four places for a value outsider. I can’t get the 28/1 about Light Infantry so will wait to see how it goes on the morning before deciding.
3.05 - I don’t have time these days to do 2yo ratings so I’ve ordered these by RPR (no ORs published) to see how the odds stack up against them. There have been a few real longshots running into the places in this race in recent years and I wonder if some trainers are going for minor gambles with their better unexposed horses. It may be significant that Godolphin don’t have a runner, freeing Buick up to ride Asadna, while Dettori probably could have had his pick of six or seven of these but opts for Jessie Harrington’s. He usually rides something fancied by Wes Ward at the meeting. I’ll maybe have a couple of fun bets nearer the off.
3.40 - I’ve only rated the ones I think should matter. I took 11/4 a couple of weeks ago about Highfield Princess, half-expecting her to be in to 6/4 by now. She has a few pieces of top form on fast ground so I’m not worried about the conditions. She really only has the Aussie filly to worry about and that one is disadvantaged at weight for age compared with northern hemisphere 3yos.
4.20 - In a match market I’d fancy Chaldean to take care of Paddington so 9/4 might be value. Royal Scotsman is overpriced. He probably bounced when disappointing behind Paddington and I’m anticipating a return to form here but he’d still be vulnerable to another jump forward by Cicero’s Gift. I’ll keep an eye on the betting through Monday and if 5/2 comes online about Chaldean I’ll take that.
5.00 - Some six weeks ago I backed Zinc White ante-post (25/1) for the Northumberland Plate so I need to back him here as he needs the penalty to be guaranteed a run, otherwise he needs 13 to come out which I can’t see happening. I thought Themaxwecan got a nice prep last time and he’ll carry some cash at long odds. I’m not sure Urban Artist will stay – the same can be said about most of these – and she might want some juice in the ground. I’ve taken 100/1, 6 places, East Asia. He was second in a weak G3 (£89k to the winner though) at Meydan earlier this year. He went up to 102 for it but was off from May and a couple of preps this spring might have him ready to outrun his odds off 10lbs lower. I’ll probably settle for these.
5.35 - I’m very keen on Francesco Clemente for this and have taken 13/2. Saga heads the market and still holds an entry in the Hunt Cup as well as the John Smith but has no Group entries whereas Francesco Clemente has three G1s pencilled in: the Eclipse, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc. He is clearly held in higher regard than Saga. His defeat on his reappearance is easy to forgive; he tried to come from the back off a modest pace, ran wide round the bend, will almost certainly improve more for the run than his admirable conqueror, King of Conquest, and the first time cheekpieces should help him concentrate.
6.10 - I might have to treat this as two races, firstly with Vauban likely to win with his head in his chest, in which case he should be long odds-on and, secondly, taking him out of the equation altogether and looking at the market without him, which probably won’t firm up until Tuesday morning so I’ll wait until then. Some brave soul might want to oppose him because he’s never raced on faster ground but I imagine he’s galloped on it.
Wishing everyone a profitable and enjoyable day (one isn't necessarily dependent on the other).
2.30 - There has to be a chance I’m over-rating Mutasaabeq’s reappearance performance. The figure appears to be solid enough but it was a small field and he got to dictate his own pace. People are suggesting he’ll need those circumstances again to reproduce the form and a disappointing run in the 12-strong Lockinge appears to support that view. However, sectionals tell us he took them along too fast in the Lockinge – which might have been due to the bigger field – and he might also have bounced. I’ve taken 18/1 each-way to three places but you can get the fourth place to shorter odds with a number of bookies. He might still struggle to beat Inspiral anyway. She was able to show her very best form first time up last season so my usual worries about backing G1 horses to run to their best form on their seasonal debut are pretty much allayed. If Pogo drifts from 100/1 I might have a very small bet on him to four places for a value outsider. I can’t get the 28/1 about Light Infantry so will wait to see how it goes on the morning before deciding.
3.05 - I don’t have time these days to do 2yo ratings so I’ve ordered these by RPR (no ORs published) to see how the odds stack up against them. There have been a few real longshots running into the places in this race in recent years and I wonder if some trainers are going for minor gambles with their better unexposed horses. It may be significant that Godolphin don’t have a runner, freeing Buick up to ride Asadna, while Dettori probably could have had his pick of six or seven of these but opts for Jessie Harrington’s. He usually rides something fancied by Wes Ward at the meeting. I’ll maybe have a couple of fun bets nearer the off.
3.40 - I’ve only rated the ones I think should matter. I took 11/4 a couple of weeks ago about Highfield Princess, half-expecting her to be in to 6/4 by now. She has a few pieces of top form on fast ground so I’m not worried about the conditions. She really only has the Aussie filly to worry about and that one is disadvantaged at weight for age compared with northern hemisphere 3yos.
4.20 - In a match market I’d fancy Chaldean to take care of Paddington so 9/4 might be value. Royal Scotsman is overpriced. He probably bounced when disappointing behind Paddington and I’m anticipating a return to form here but he’d still be vulnerable to another jump forward by Cicero’s Gift. I’ll keep an eye on the betting through Monday and if 5/2 comes online about Chaldean I’ll take that.
5.00 - Some six weeks ago I backed Zinc White ante-post (25/1) for the Northumberland Plate so I need to back him here as he needs the penalty to be guaranteed a run, otherwise he needs 13 to come out which I can’t see happening. I thought Themaxwecan got a nice prep last time and he’ll carry some cash at long odds. I’m not sure Urban Artist will stay – the same can be said about most of these – and she might want some juice in the ground. I’ve taken 100/1, 6 places, East Asia. He was second in a weak G3 (£89k to the winner though) at Meydan earlier this year. He went up to 102 for it but was off from May and a couple of preps this spring might have him ready to outrun his odds off 10lbs lower. I’ll probably settle for these.
5.35 - I’m very keen on Francesco Clemente for this and have taken 13/2. Saga heads the market and still holds an entry in the Hunt Cup as well as the John Smith but has no Group entries whereas Francesco Clemente has three G1s pencilled in: the Eclipse, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc. He is clearly held in higher regard than Saga. His defeat on his reappearance is easy to forgive; he tried to come from the back off a modest pace, ran wide round the bend, will almost certainly improve more for the run than his admirable conqueror, King of Conquest, and the first time cheekpieces should help him concentrate.
6.10 - I might have to treat this as two races, firstly with Vauban likely to win with his head in his chest, in which case he should be long odds-on and, secondly, taking him out of the equation altogether and looking at the market without him, which probably won’t firm up until Tuesday morning so I’ll wait until then. Some brave soul might want to oppose him because he’s never raced on faster ground but I imagine he’s galloped on it.
Wishing everyone a profitable and enjoyable day (one isn't necessarily dependent on the other).
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
- Messages
- 4,563
My thoughts for Day 1
Probable certainty that the nauseous Iti will have a winner so have stuck them in doubles just in case.
First race for me is between the front two in the betting, Modern Games and Inspiral.
Second Race..no doubt River Tiber is the second coming but you couldn’t have been more impressed by Asadna...the rest, I will look at in the paddock (not going this year but hope they will show some!) I actually thought Fandom looked a 6f horse all over but heard they might wait for the Windsor Castle which seems odd. And I have a hunch (always dangerous about The Camden Colt...not suited by Epsom and I think he’s a good ew price)
Third Race - as Matt alluded to, it’s not the strongest KS. I can see HP winning. Twilight will blitz off and probably not get home. I like Dramatised and possibly Bradsell ew too. Not ideal 3yos up against older sprinters but as I said, not the strongest field.
Fourth race I’m more of a Paddington fan. Also think Royal Scotsman could run well again at a fair price. He had a stone bruise last time and he’s a big horse so better suited to this track than Newmarket.
Fifth race...I’ve gone for several. Irish Lullaby I put on Barjons blog but I also like Law of the Sea, Themaxwecan and also Achnamara with first time wind op and tongue tie.
Sixth race - I’ve gone with Matt over Bolshoi. They’ve messed around with him and he’s a very decent horse. Cadillac also based on what Megan said about riding him out and he was bucking and squealing this week...always a positive sign.
Seventh race - I think Ruling Dynasty is very unexposed and as a half brother to Banderelli, will stay and he’s an a very good mark. Also got one of those hunches about Gaassee who’s had a couple of issues but is now gelded and unlike Haggas to persevere with a no hoper.
Have a great day, Ladies and Gents!
Probable certainty that the nauseous Iti will have a winner so have stuck them in doubles just in case.
First race for me is between the front two in the betting, Modern Games and Inspiral.
Second Race..no doubt River Tiber is the second coming but you couldn’t have been more impressed by Asadna...the rest, I will look at in the paddock (not going this year but hope they will show some!) I actually thought Fandom looked a 6f horse all over but heard they might wait for the Windsor Castle which seems odd. And I have a hunch (always dangerous about The Camden Colt...not suited by Epsom and I think he’s a good ew price)
Third Race - as Matt alluded to, it’s not the strongest KS. I can see HP winning. Twilight will blitz off and probably not get home. I like Dramatised and possibly Bradsell ew too. Not ideal 3yos up against older sprinters but as I said, not the strongest field.
Fourth race I’m more of a Paddington fan. Also think Royal Scotsman could run well again at a fair price. He had a stone bruise last time and he’s a big horse so better suited to this track than Newmarket.
Fifth race...I’ve gone for several. Irish Lullaby I put on Barjons blog but I also like Law of the Sea, Themaxwecan and also Achnamara with first time wind op and tongue tie.
Sixth race - I’ve gone with Matt over Bolshoi. They’ve messed around with him and he’s a very decent horse. Cadillac also based on what Megan said about riding him out and he was bucking and squealing this week...always a positive sign.
Seventh race - I think Ruling Dynasty is very unexposed and as a half brother to Banderelli, will stay and he’s an a very good mark. Also got one of those hunches about Gaassee who’s had a couple of issues but is now gelded and unlike Haggas to persevere with a no hoper.
Have a great day, Ladies and Gents!
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,775
Day 1
1. Modern Games (Native Trail)
2. River Tiber (Emperor’s Son)
3. Twilight Gleaming (Dramatise)
4. Paddington (Chaldean)
5. Ahorsewithnoname (Irish Lullaby - you ignore jj at your peril
)
6. Francesco Clemente (Saga)
7. Vauban
Bold backed so far - other bets and/or covers as the afternoon unfolds.
1. Modern Games (Native Trail)
2. River Tiber (Emperor’s Son)
3. Twilight Gleaming (Dramatise)
4. Paddington (Chaldean)
5. Ahorsewithnoname (Irish Lullaby - you ignore jj at your peril
)6. Francesco Clemente (Saga)
7. Vauban
Bold backed so far - other bets and/or covers as the afternoon unfolds.
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
Looks like Inspiral has turned up singing Three Wheels on my Wagon...
Out to 3/1.
Out to 3/1.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
There's talk of good to soft in places and she ran her worst race of her life here on Good to Soft
Now 8/13 to be in 1st four
Now 8/13 to be in 1st four
edgt
Senior Jockey
My ew docket today
Light Infantry
Mooneista
Isaac Shelby
Cadillac
Win trixie
River Tiber
Buckaroo
Vauban
Give it a whirl and enjoy everyone.
Light Infantry
Mooneista
Isaac Shelby
Cadillac
Win trixie
River Tiber
Buckaroo
Vauban
Give it a whirl and enjoy everyone.
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,775
Bugger!!
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,775
No, just got it noted to watch how he ran for possible tracker. That’s mucked that up as well.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
Looked to me like Frankie wanted to win without giving Inspiral a hard race and didn't really ask her for everything when the winner kept responding.
It's a sore one for me but she'll get me the money back in due course.
Strange race all in all. Looked like they were dawdling along, with Pogo and Muta getting experimental hold-up tactics.
I'd said MG got the Lockinge falling in his lap because of the over-fast pace. That didn't happen here.
It's a sore one for me but she'll get me the money back in due course.
Strange race all in all. Looked like they were dawdling along, with Pogo and Muta getting experimental hold-up tactics.
I'd said MG got the Lockinge falling in his lap because of the over-fast pace. That didn't happen here.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Time 1.8 sec slower than standard ; not so bad after a so so pace.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
I'm wondering if the ground up the centre is faster than on the far side, in which case RT might be better again than the bare form.
edgt
Senior Jockey
River Tiber's Ribchester half sister sold for 60k as a yearling and after a bad bad juvenile career only made 1000 last autumn.
Would the new owner approach Coolmore for a Wooton Bassett foal share ?
Would the new owner approach Coolmore for a Wooton Bassett foal share ?
Coventry time 3.19 above standard, probably after a gruelling pace.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Top Hats off to Martin Stephens today.
His Good Morning Bloodstock email titled " Ascot Success In The Blood " made an impressive case for Triple Time.
Half siblings include Royal Ascot winners Cape Byron and Ostilio and runner up Ajman Princess and dam is half sister to Afsare .
His Good Morning Bloodstock email titled " Ascot Success In The Blood " made an impressive case for Triple Time.
Half siblings include Royal Ascot winners Cape Byron and Ostilio and runner up Ajman Princess and dam is half sister to Afsare .
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,014
First Inspiral, now Highfield Princess.
This meeting is costing me big time. I can't see me finishing in front financially today.
This meeting is costing me big time. I can't see me finishing in front financially today.
Nice one,Jinny - looks a natural for the Nunthorpe.
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
- Messages
- 4,563
Just the sort of profile I try to look for....duh!