Road to the 2000 Guineas

Bar the Bull said:
We are talking about a maiden winner who beat an unsold £80k stablemate in an early season maiden. A Class 4 race where the most significant market rival flopped.

Not only are we talking about him as a Derby horse, but we are also talking about the presence of this horse dictating where the owner's two multiple G1-winning superstars might run.
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Bully, if Grimpthorpe and Cecil are quoted as saying he will be trained for the Derby they are going to have to give some thought to how these horses are campaigned. The prince is not one for running multiple horses in the same races.

The horse has been shouted from the rooftops, he won in a decent time fto, the favourite didn't flop, he just wasn't good enough (He got the run of the race throughout), the trainer and owner are talking Derby, enough reasons to suggest he may be decent and could end up contesting some of those races? I think so. No need to be so condescending.
 
Quite possibly!

Well, what odds is he not to win the Dante (or be involved in a desperately close finish)? If he was 5/2 for the Dante and lets go over the top and say 7/4 neither of the 2 scenarios I mention above don't happen, then he is a long shot to end up at Epsom.

If he is deservedly beaten at York, he won't run at Epsom.
 
Aragorn said:
Bully, if Grimpthorpe and Cecil are quoted as saying he will be trained for the Derby they are going to have to give some thought to how these horses are campaigned. The prince is not one for running multiple horses in the same races.
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Great argument, but weakened by your assumption Grimpthorpe has given thought to anything... :)
 
I was impressed by Frankel, altough cautioned by the poor run of his pre-race main danger, Strong Suit.

i wouldn't be backing him at current odds but come the day there is bound to be some 5/2 Frankel to win by 3 lengths or more, something along those lines will do for me.
 
Hamm said:
Indeed it does but doesn't the received opinion here suggest (well at least the market does) that he will stay?
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Lots of warnings that they are not sure about the Derby... I don't think they should be too worried, with the proviso that they teach him to settle in the early stages.
 
Aragorn said:
Bully, if Grimpthorpe and Cecil are quoted as saying he will be trained for the Derby they are going to have to give some thought to how these horses are campaigned. The prince is not one for running multiple horses in the same races.

The horse has been shouted from the rooftops, he won in a decent time fto, the favourite didn't flop, he just wasn't good enough (He got the run of the race throughout), the trainer and owner are talking Derby, enough reasons to suggest he may be decent and could end up contesting some of those races? I think so. No need to be so condescending.
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I think you are jumping the gun, but I didn't mean to be condescending.

I can think of a fair few Cecil horses shouted from the rooftops over the years.

I just think it will be time to start worrying about targets once he wins a decent race.

By the way, I don't think Frankel will come into the equation, as he looks like having far less stamina than the other two.
 
Perhaps - but given it's a forum that would be a matter of debate.

I've also only just turned 30 and followed racing since my early 20's during which time Cecil has only been in the limelight for the last couple of seasons so unraced Cecil hotpots are not something i'm used to.

This time last year Workforce was still being talking up as a once raced maiden winner - and that was at two, over 7f. It happens.

It would be unlike you to be condescending Bully so i'm sure it wasn't intentional but fobbing people's comments off as if they're whimsical flights of fancy because you don't agree could appear that way.... If you catch my drift...
 
Aragorn said:
Perhaps - but given it's a forum that would be a matter of debate.

I've also only just turned 30 and followed racing since my early 20's during which time Cecil has only been in the limelight for the last couple of seasons so unraced Cecil hotpots are not something i'm used to.

This time last year Workforce was still being talking up as a once raced maiden winner - and that was at two, over 7f. It happens.

It would be unlike you to be condescending Bully so i'm sure it wasn't intentional but fobbing people's comments off as if they're whimsical flights of fancy because you don't agree could appear that way.... If you catch my drift...
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Killer Instinct is the first one that comes to mind. And Tuning Fork and Ballet Master were others. In fact I remember Twice Over being Derby favourite, but I think that was after his Craven win. That last one is probably a bad example as he had form in the book and he actually turned out decent.

I am not fobbing your comments off....not intentionally anyway. I think you are as entitled to your opinion of WD as being a headache for Khalid re: his other colts' plans as I am to say you are losing the run of yourself.

As you say it is a forum.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Killer Instinct is the first one that comes to mind. And Tuning Fork and Ballet Master were others. In fact I remember Twice Over being Derby favourite, but I think that was after his Craven win. That last one is probably a bad example as he had form in the book and he actually turned out decent.

I am not fobbing your comments off....not intentionally anyway. I think you are as entitled to your opinion of WD as being a headache for Khalid re: his other colts' plans as I am to say you are losing the run of yourself.

As you say it is a forum.
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Tuning Fork did finish second in the Dante but went seriously downhill after that .

Very different times now at Warren Place - lots of swans rather than geese they thought were swans
 
No worries Bully. Twice over was towards the head of the betting that year after his win in the Zetland at two. New Approach was probably favourite but I can't remember...

Ballydoyle, in my time watching racing, have been the ones with the hype horses. Strangely with them its often the ones they fancy less early on that turned out best; Dylan Thomas being the best example.
 
Is Casamento the forgotten horse of the race? He has done precious little wrong, has only a head or neck to find with Pathfork and the Godolphin boys haven't managed to cripple him....... yet - is there an each way without Frankel Market?
 
On The Bridle said:
Is Casamento the forgotten horse of the race? He has done precious little wrong, has only a head or neck to find with Pathfork and the Godolphin boys haven't managed to cripple him....... yet - is there an each way without Frankel Market?
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I've heard he's crippled too.
 
Casamento is freely available at 20/1. I would expect his price to be about 6/1... so it does look too good to be true. He should have a great chance but the market says he stinks.
 
Never should have left the master trainer that is Mick Halford. Or Mick Group 1 winner Halford as Gearoid calls him.
 
15 remain at the 5 day stage:

Alexander Pope (IRE) 3.c
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland

Broox (IRE) 3.c
E. J. O'Neill, France

Casamento (IRE) 3.c
Mahmood Al Zarooni

Dubawi Gold 3.c
Richard Hannon

Frankel 3.c
Henry Cecil

Fury 3.c
William Haggas

Happy Today (USA) 3.c
Brian Meehan

Loving Spirit 3.c
James Toller

Master of Hounds (USA) 3.c
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland

Native Khan (FR) 3.c
Ed Dunlop

Pathfork (USA) 3.c
Mrs J. Harrington, Ireland

Rerouted (USA) 3.c
B. W. Hills

Roderic O'Connor (IRE) 3.c
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland

Saamidd 3.c
Saeed bin Suroor

Slim Shadey 3.c
J. S. Moore
 
Just looking at the best prices available for the remaining 15 runners and betting to the same overround, I'd make Pathfork no bigger than 19/10 (2.93) in the betting w/o Frankel market. There is 9/4 available with Blue Square who offer e/w terms of 1/4 odds 1,2,3. This looks as good an each way bet as you will find at the weekend. I can see him being 7/4 w/o Frankel on Saturday.
 
The Guineas isn't exactly grabbing the imagination with Frankel looking a cert but If he wasn't in it who would win. I think there are a good few with place chances, some not so obvious.

Pathfork
Roderic
Native Khan
Casamento
Saamidd
Happy Today .

Glad Casamento runs, never had him down as a Derby type.
 
Godolphin are viewing the guineas as a Derby trial for Casamento. If you could forgive Saamid his Dewhurst run (and possibly his connections) he may be a bit of value in the place market. The jungle drums in Ballydoyle are very quiet in relation to Roderic - dont know whether thats a good or a bad sign:confused: If Pathfork doesnt win I would love to see a monster performance from Frankel. He could be a bet if he drifts - I have got 4/6 in my head.
 
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