Road to the 2000 Guineas

SteveM said:
Ultimately right about Canford, although not on the money in the Guineas of course.

Montjeu was indeed brilliant but appeared some 16 times over three seasons... I'd be very happy if we saw the same from Frankel.
Click to expand...

Ironically I managed the one two in the Guineas but was wrong about Canford. A similar result this year would be nice :)

I was refering more to Montjeu's progeny but again than that's just an impression I have, I suppose. Jessie Harrington is a great trainer and Pathfork looks the most obvious danger but I'll be waiting till they'are at the start this year before I have a bet.
 
Hamm said:
Good read http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/apr/29/claims-five-guineas-favourites
Click to expand...

The fate of favourites in the race is a negative for Frankel but for me he looks more like a Zafonic or a George Washington than he does a New Approach (who was a middle distance horse) or a Xaar (who was maybe a bit small if memory serves)
Dubawi and Celtic Swing would both have won their Guineas if the ground had had cut and that is my main worry for Frankel tomorrow. I'd like to see him win well.
 
Ardross said:
As you didn't all last season as I recall . You hope he won't win therefore you have converted this into a belief.

His form is impregnable - my concerns are his temperament and his jockey .

Then again last time HRAC had an odds on favourite with a ropey jockey on in the 2000 the horse won very easily .
Click to expand...

Sorry for having an opinion which isn't (on every single occasion):
1. Cecil is perfect.
2. Queally is rubbish.

His form is not 'impregnable' - do you understand the Guineas? It is all about the potential of unexposed horses and he can be beaten. Pathfork, Casamento and Saamidd are all capable of winning.
 
Cook's article is indeed a good read but I think his comments about the quality of the opposition in Celtic Swing's RP Trophy are wide of the mark. Annus Mirabilis (beaten twelve lengths no less) was a close second at three in the Dante with the third four lengths away, a nose second in the G1 Prix Jean Prat and a slightly unlucky third in the G1 Irish Derby (beaten under a length with Celtic Swing behind on this occasion). And when the rest are beaten thirteen lengths plus in a fantastic time, their quality - and they weren't useless by any means - is somewhat academic.
 
Paddy Power go a massive standout 13/2 about Pathfork, this has to be a maximum EW bet. The true place price is going to be odds on at the off and you're getting 13/8 a place.

The horse has been strong in the betting all Winter (which negates the setback last year for me), the yard is in great form and it's realistically the only horse that can beat Frankel in my opinion.
 
I don't see it that way at all - the question is would you back Pathfork at 13/2 win only? Unless the answer is yes, then it is a bad bet, because you are losing any value in the 13/8 place bet by backing the win part which you don't believe to be value.
 
That is not strictly true.

Let's say the "real" price of Pathfork in the place market is Evens.

So if you are getting 13/8 on that, your expected return (over the fair market price) on that part of the bet is €31.25 for every €100 e/w staked.

So even if you believe that Pathfork should be "really" 8/1 in the win market. By getting 13/2, your expected shortfall (versus fair market price) on that part of the bet is €16.67.

Even if you believe that Pathfork should really be 10/1 in the win market, the benefit of the 13/8 to place almost exactly counterbalances the poor value on the 13/2 in the win market.

So your question is wrong. You need to look at both sides of the bet to decide if it is value.
 
There's a reason bets like this are called bad each-way bets and why bookmakers are so unlikely to accept them. It's also why professional gambling syndicates make thousands of pounds a year betting EW against odds on shots. You could make thousands of pounds a year betting horses like Pathfork EW, whether you knew anything about horse racing or not. My boss set up his own business off betting races like this each-way and he thinks Willie Carson is still riding.

The win part is irrelevant, if you're getting 13/8 about an even money shot throughout the year, you'll show a massive profit and can suffer losing the win part (not to mention that the odd win part will cop which will drive the percentage up).

Edit - Not to mention the price differential between 13/8 and Evens is 12% whereas 13/2 and 10/1 is only a 4% difference.
 
Last edited:
The win part is not irrelevant, as it makes up half of the bet. There is a chance that the true win odds of the horse are too short (but this is not the case in this instance).

All in all, the 13/2 price about Pathfork is a classic each way bet in a race with an odds on fav, as Gamla Stan correctly states.
 
Bar the Bull said:
The win part is not irrelevant, as it makes up half of the bet. There is a chance that the true win odds of the horse are too short (but this is not the case in this instance).

All in all, the 13/2 price about Pathfork is a classic each way bet in a race with an odds on fav, as Gamla Stan correctly states.
Click to expand...

Apologies, it's not totally irrelevant (I exaggerated!) but my point was (and I think yours having re-read your post) you can suffer giving up a percentage of value on the win if the place part is big enough to allow you to do so. As we agree, this is one of those cases.
 
Last edited:
Bar the Bull said:
Correct. And in this instance, you would need to believe Pathfork is really a 10/1 shot to win for you not to avail of this bet.

What price is Pathfork in the "to be placed" Betfair market?
Click to expand...

2.02 to back, 2.14 to lay.

He's traded at odds on though.

Only 16k traded in the place market, I suspect he'll go off between evens and 11/10 on Betfair at the off.
 
Taking 2.08 as the mid price, you will still make a 1% profit if Pathfork's "real" win price is 9/1.

In actual fact, his "real" price is probably 7/1, so this each way bet makes you exactly 10% profit in the long run.

Not to be sniffed at!
 
I agree with Gamla here - there is a 31.25% margin if he's placed. I held that kind of margin until the week after Cheltenham and have now eroded it to 13.5%. To go all in on this bet I would have liked to see him have a prep. But it is still my favoured bet over ploughing into Frankel at 4/7 - which would return you 57% on your money should he win. You have 3 chances with Pathfork and one of those is a jackpot! Fran Berry is a disaster EW when the win chance is gone but hopefully he will cop that this is a group 1. Slightly safer bet IMHO.
 
Last edited:
NK has taken a massive walk in the win market though strangely, he's out to 30.

Good spot with Boyles and VC, don't know why these firms don't just bet to 1/4 odds and restrict obvious slaggy ew punters like myself.
 
I don't agree with either of your posts as I think Pathfork is no way an evens chance to place! Horses with his profile, injury at 2, often bomb out - no way to be sure how he will run. It's the people's value of Pathfork I don't agree with here - I perfectly understand the gap if you both consider him to be an evens shot and a genuine 13/2 win chance - I don't see it.

Edited to say just betting each way in races of this shape doesn't guarantee wealth (not saying it can't be done of course) and is more likely to make you homeless.
 
Last edited:
Hamm said:
I don't agree with either of your posts as I think Pathfork is no way an evens chance to place! Horses with his profile, injury at 2, often bomb out - no way to be sure how he will run. It's the people's value of Pathfork I don't agree with here - I perfectly understand the gap if you both consider him to be an evens shot and a genuine 13/2 win chance - I don't see it.
Click to expand...

If you want to lay me some 13/8 place only, you have my email address. :D
 
At OTB:

You cannot just look at the margin on the place part! You have to bet each way to avail of the 13/8!!!!!!

Say his true odds are Evens.

And the place part of the bet pays 13/8.

You will get back 2.625 half the time, and 0 the other half, so an expected return of 1.3125 on the place part.

Say the place part of the bet is priced exactly right at 13/2. Your expected return is 1.0 on the win part.

So for every 2 staked, you will get back 2.3125, which is a "margin" of 15.6%.

In actual fact this will be lower, as bookies will always try to reduce the odds to stop us doing this too much, but they rarely do it enough.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top