Road to the 2000 Guineas

On The Bridle said:
Godolphin are viewing the guineas as a Derby trial for Casamento. If you could forgive Saamid his Dewhurst run (and possibly his connections) he may be a bit of value in the place market. The jungle drums in Ballydoyle are very quiet in relation to Roderic - dont know whether thats a good or a bad sign:confused: If Pathfork doesnt win I would love to see a monster performance from Frankel. He could be a bet if he drifts - I have got 4/6 in my head.
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I am very sweet on Saamidd's chances, and will be having a dcent bet each way on him, and see him as having a better chance of winning than say, Roderic or Native Khan, though he also has a bigger chance than either of those 2 of coming detached last.
 
Godolphin have been wrong before, i'm expecting a big run from Casamento (or he falls out the back of the tele)

Happy today interests me, great pedigree.
 
You were right about Canford last year Steve but I'm going to take you on again. Frankel will win the Guineas but his temperment and physique tells me he won't get a Derby trip. Like a Montjeu his star will burn brilliantly bright for a short period before the nerves get the better of him and it's off to stud.

Your piece shortlisted the same ones I did except for Happy Today. Any opinion on him ?
 
SteveM said:
After much thought I’ve backed Frankel… at 4/1 for the Derby. Two or three decent alternatives in the Guineas at quite attractive prices. Down to 13 now with two of the three Ballydoyle colts out.]
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I think thats a really bad bet
 
Sheikh said:
You were right about Canford last year Steve but I'm going to take you on again. Frankel will win the Guineas but his temperment and physique tells me he won't get a Derby trip. Like a Montjeu his star will burn brilliantly bright for a short period before the nerves get the better of him and it's off to stud.

Your piece shortlisted the same ones I did except for Happy Today. Any opinion on him ?
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Ultimately right about Canford, although not on the money in the Guineas of course.

Montjeu was indeed brilliant but appeared some 16 times over three seasons... I'd be very happy if we saw the same from Frankel.

Frankel may well win this, but I'd expect improvement when stepping up. So at the odds I think he's worth opposing.

Happy Today has a lot of speed in his profile, but a decent showing in the Feilden suggests the trip is fine. He is no doubt better than we have seen... I'm not sure how much better.
 
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Hi Steve

contradicting post
if you think he can be beaten why back im for the Derby
if he is beaten he will drift and you will have a better price.


Style of racing suggets he is a miler.
 
sunybay said:
Hi Steve

contradicting post
if you think he can be beaten why back im for the Derby
if he is beaten he will drift and you will have a better price.


Style of racing suggets he is a miler.
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4/1 is a good place to start. I can ‘average out’ if he drifts. I’m not saying he won’t win though, only that it is reasonable to expect him to improve for stepping up. If he wins well I’ve got a great bet at 4s for the Derby and if he loses in the style of Celtic Swing or New Approach he may even shorten for the Derby anyway.

To me odds against for the Derby is much better than odds on for the Guineas.

Everyone told me the style of New Approach and Dancing Brave were of milers. I'm delighted to say I ignored them as well.;)
 
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I'm going to have an ew on Saamidd as well. He's won over 7f in quite a good time, and he's an early foal [4 Feb]. I always think that a month or so can make quite a difference in these early season races.
 
Frankel stall 1, good news for them to know the postition of the stalls will be in the middle of the track and not in the stands side.


I think it is a very good edition of the race, Frankel could be a super champion, Pathfork, casamento, Saamid and Roderic also good horse, the main dangershould be Pathfork.


Suprised Frankie is riding Casamento and not Saamid, especialy seeing who trains each one.


Good to see also there is a pacemaker and not a big field so they are not going to split.
 
SteveM said:
Everyone told me the style of New Approach and Dancing Brave were of milers. I'm delighted to say I ignored them as well.;)
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Dancing Brave was a freak but New Approach was always going to be better over further than a mile. Forget style, Frankel just looks like a speed horse.
 
Frankel to win from Native Khan or Saamidd. The latterly named two horses are lovely creatures who always looked like big, raw frames who would be better at 3.
 
Seems to me the only horse that can defeat Frankel, is Frankel himself.

Lack of stamina or a reluctance to settle may be his undoing.

I would be struggling to find the winner in the 'without Frankel' market.

Has anyone a strong view of who would win without the favourite?
 
My feeling that Pathfork could spoil the party is growing. His relaxed demeanour and attitude will be a big plus on the day - the manner of his win in the national stakes on unsuitable ground was hugely impressive and the fact that he has had a tough race in this and kept finding. I get this feeling that Frankel maybe another Hawk Wing.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Seems to me the only horse that can defeat Frankel, is Frankel himself.

Lack of stamina or a reluctance to settle may be his undoing.

I would be struggling to find the winner in the 'without Frankel' market.

Has anyone a strong view of who would win without the favourite?
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I'd agree he is reluctant to settle, but he certainly doesn't have a lack of stamina in his pedigree.
 
SteveM said:
The point being he was even better at a mile and a half than a mile.
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I suppose I was looking at it from a betting viewpoint. Before Epsom, there was certainly a question mark over his stamina. If you took the view that he'd stay and backed him accordingly, you were correct but did your money. After Epsom, his stamina wasn't in doubt.
 
Euronymous said:
Even if he has the stamina he hasn't the physique to handle the track.
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I don't see this as being true. His physique should not prove a particular hinderance for Epsom, he seems balanced and agile enough to me. The key will be getting him settled.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Frankel to win from Native Khan or Saamidd. The latterly named two horses are lovely creatures who always looked like big, raw frames who would be better at 3.
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I'd agree these two could really flourish this season. They are raw with plenty of quality.
 
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