Road to the 2000 Guineas

Hamm said:
Edited to say just betting each way in races of this shape doesn't guarantee wealth (not saying it can't be done of course) and is more likely to make you homeless.
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I respect you enormously mate but this is total bollocks, speak to any trader at any bookmaker and they'd say the same. If you only bet EW against odds on shots with a bookmaker, your account will be closed because they know they cannot beat you, it is mathematically impossible.

I could make money from betting bad EW races without even looking at the form of the horses (The 6.05 Fontwell tonight for example) and so could my gran, providing she understood the mathematics of the bet.

Have enough of these bets and you'll show a very handsome profit on the year, I can assure you.
 
Not in every race! You need to understand what the actual chances are of a horse 13/8 in the place part - you can't bet it blind. If Pathfork is an evens shot, and his win chance is as you both have said, then yes, you have a bet. There are just as many 13/8 shots to place who should be 15/8.
 
Bar the Bull said:
At OTB:

You cannot just look at the margin on the place part! You have to bet each way to avail of the 13/8!!!!!!

Say his true odds are Evens.

And the place part of the bet pays 13/8.

You will get back 2.625 half the time, and 0 the other half, so an expected return of 1.3125 on the place part.

Say the place part of the bet is priced exactly right at 13/2. Your expected return is 1.0 on the win part.

So for every 2 staked, you will get back 2.3125, which is a "margin" of 15.6%.

In actual fact this will be lower, as bookies will always try to reduce the odds to stop us doing this too much, but they rarely do it enough.
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Absolutely BTB - I was looking at this race as a once off Pathfork EW V Frankel Win at their respective prices with my beliefs on their respective chances.

Thanks for the maths lesson though - have forwarded it to a friend of mine who maintains backing a 16/1 shot ew when placed is the same as backing a 4/1 winner. It will take him an age to get his head around this!:p
 
Hamm said:
There are just as many 13/8 shots to place who should be 15/8.
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Not against odds on chances, which as BTB alludes to, is precisely why they're so much shorter on Betfair place markets. You could just arb the place all year!
 
If you simultaneously back the horse with Powers, and lay it on Befair win and place markets, you get the following profit per €1000.

Pathfork wins €25
Pathfork places €525
Pathfork loses €0

Even after 5% commission (which is only paid on Betfair winnings) you get:
Pathfork wins €25
Pathfork places €475
Pathfork loses -€100
 
Do it using Luke's account, and the commission will be a lot lower.
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:lol:

I am not getting my point across well enough so will stopnow - both yours make sense.

Forget the Guineas and back Bangalore in the IPL starting in 15 mins..
 
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Bar the Bull said:
You didn't, but if you don't, tell me what makes the 13/2 e/w a bad bet.
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Think he could bomb out completely and if i still had a betfair account I'd place lay him. He could on the other hand win. I don't like a horse getting an injury at 2 like him - I also think Casamento will be better than him..
 
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Casamento is much more likely to bomb out completely given connections though. :p

A look at Betfair's place market suggests that the market thinks this too at the moment (percentage difference in the EW is a lot smaller than with Pathfork).
 
Hamm said:
I don't think Pathfork's does for his injury..
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Taking the mathematics out of the bet for a minute (which I think is folly to do so), I actually agreed with you on that point but then he's been so so strong in the market all Winter that I think it shows the stable know he's fully over whatever the problem was.
 
Good point. He did violate me with the ride he gave Mourayan in the Leger. Luckily I'm not getting involved with Pathfork anyway.
 
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