Road to the 2000 Guineas

I think it should be 2/1. Now I've got everything wrong this week so I might as well get this wrong too!
 
Frankels temperment, Berry rides Pathfork and Casamento is trained by Godolphin.
I might sit this one out or just have an e/w curiosity bet on Meehans.
 
Pathfork out to 9.6 on the machine. Seriously tempting price now. The Morning Line teams gushing over Frankel bugged me a little. The fast ground has to be a serious concern now.

Also, some pundits are already putting Frankel is the same bracket of greatness as Sea the Stars. Come the feck on.
 
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I dont think anyone has said hes achieved what STS has yet but why not say that he has the same potential? See nothing wrong with that at all. Hes already made a much stronger impression than STS had the same stage (and i was a big big fan of STS after the guineas)

I think he will win strongly today. He has far better credentials than most short price favs in this race over the years (and those past stats are totally irrelevant anyway)
 
95%+ of Guineas favourites at this stage had made a stronger impression than Sea the Stars.

I don't think he has the same potential - he's come to hand a lot earlier, and doesn't have (imho) the scope Sea the Stars had, nowhere near in fact.

Today should tell a lot.
 
Speaking of Sea the Stars, that horse started at 4/7 for the Eclipse. The same price roughly as Frankel is now - and everything was in that animals favour that day - trip, ground, temperament, class.
 
Sea the Stars was longer for the Irish Champion against a horse that needs around 3 miles (as his nearest market rival) than Frankel is today against a bunch of horses with enormous potential and he has concerns over draw, temperment and pace (he hasn't run in a race like the Guineas yet, Nick Mordin actually made a great point!) - he is massively, massively the wrong price.
 
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For betting purposes I’ve gone for Roderic O’Connor at 9/1 and Native Khan at 18/1, if only for the reason that I think Frankel and Pathfork are too short. I wouldn’t want to put anyone off the Godolphin pair either, but don’t quite believe it for either of them.

I’ve already backed Frankel for the Derby at 4/1 and have taken a bit of insurance on the Guineas/Derby double at 9/2 (horrible price that it is... I had 33/1 on Nashwan to do the same).

In terms of finishing order I’ve got Roderic O’Connor, Frankel, Pathfork and Native Khan pretty much together, with slight preference for the former.

A fascinating race... I’ll be very happy to see Frankel win this despite having staked two others.

They’re all mixed in in my TTF lists of course.
 
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Re the National Stakes form - how is Casamento double the price of Pathfork? There was little in it (with the winner all out), and Casamento had only the benefit of 1 run beforehand. He then improved further in the RP Trophy, and Pathfork got injured. There should be very little between them in the market.
 
I think Pathfork is overpriced at the moment.The stable is in absolutely peak form at the moment-not sure if I should go each way at 7s or win and place
on the machine.
 
i can appreciate the godolphin point but what does Jessica Harrington know about training english classic winners?
 
About as much as Mikel Delzangles did this time last year. I don't see the trainer as a negative, probably because of Moscow to be honest.
 
I know your replies know are usually flippant remarks of others opinions but care to explain to me how I was struggling to get my point across about Jessica H? Fine trainer over jumps but she still has it to prove on the flat.
 
Sorry Hamm.

Jumbajukiba, Curtain Call, Long Lashes, The Bull Hayes are just off the top of my head horses she's done well with on the Flat. Pathfork may well get beat today, he probably will, but it will because he's not good enough rather than because his trainer has been schooling him over hurdles or whatever it is you think she may be doing to scupper him.
 
I'm not having a go but none of those are near top class (LL excepted) hence she has no experience of handling top horses - that was my point and until she proves otherwise, leaves a slight question mark for me.
 
Hamm said:
Re the National Stakes form - how is Casamento double the price of Pathfork? There was little in it (with the winner all out), and Casamento had only the benefit of 1 run beforehand. He then improved further in the RP Trophy, and Pathfork got injured. There should be very little between them in the market.
Click to expand...

I also don't see why there should be a great difference between them in terms of price. Both should be a little less than double figures imo, about 8/1 or 9/1.
 
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