Road to the 2000 Guineas

I think there are some very promising types in this years Guineas. I felt last year the pack of good two yr olds behind D.A. had a lot of scope. More scope than D.A. I don't think Ballydoyle will win it.
 
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Aragorn said:
I thought Toronado was very impressive the other day.

The indecision from Ballydoyle is blurring the picture; once the horses are confirmed something will get backed in against the favourite and I reckon it'll be Mars.
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It looks a decent renewal so a once raced maiden winner won't be winning this. The thing about these classics that those types win - Lammtarra, Shaamit, Footstepsinthesand is that they are always poor renewals - allowing those animals to get away with it.
 
Euronymous said:
It looks a decent renewal so a once raced maiden winner won't be winning this. The thing about these classics that those types win - Lammtarra, Shaamit, Footstepsinthesand is that they are always poor renewals - allowing those animals to get away with it.
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Mark Of Esteem?
 
That Guineas wasn't terrible like last year's or the one that Golan won but the Mark of Esteem that won the QEII was different gravy to the one that won at Newmarket. Didn't take a whole amount of winning with Alhaarth not going on as a 3yo.

I was impressed with Toronado and Dawn Approach will be a tough nut to crack. If Mars is Ballydoyle's numero uno he'd be a major lay if that's your bag.
 
I’d advise backing Toronado for the Derby at available odds ahead of an expected good showing in the Guineas. The High Chaparral colt has a Dosage index of 0.89 indicating that an optimum trip of about 12 furlongs is likely.

I’ve been on Dawn Approach for the Guineas since last year. Can’t see a real threat to him at the moment. As Euro says he’ll be a tough nut to crack. He conforms to everything you look for in a Guineas candidate. DI of 1.67 makes him suited to seeing out the Rowley Mile well.
 
As we know Dawn Approach won 6 races as a 2 year old.

You have to be very talented to win one Group race at 2. To win 3 plus 3 other races you have to be extremely mature.

Perhaps like his sire he will train on but there's also a chance his improvement will be below the average you'd expect from 2 to 3yo.

6 races for a Classic prospect is a bit over the top but then Bolger did run his sire 5 times and he ran a stormer to finish 2nd to Herntythenavigator and he won the Derby.

Toronado on the other hand was asked only to run 3 times and a much more considerate campaign seems to have paid off having already picked up the Craven this season.

On one hand we have a horse who might have trained on against one we know who has trained on.

I'd rather back Toronado ew at 4/1 plus back him at around 1.9 in the place market.

In my view Toronado looks certain of being placed and may even win and the odds on offer about DA make Toronado the safest bet.
 
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Dawn Approach's dam is by Phone Trick, whose progeny have a notably higher strike rate at 2 and are "often precocious" according to the RP sire comment.

On the other in some years the Guineas races are sometimes more of a finale to the juvenile campaign than the start of the 3yo season.
 
I have been getting stuck into the breeding pages of the 2000 Guineas. One horse that intrigues me is Mars.

He is by Galileo out of a 6f winner by Danehill. Indeed his dam is a full sister to Kodiac, a sprinter.

However, his half brothers are Cape Cross's Nayarra (won a G1 over a mile as a 2yo)...Selkirk's Tebee (won over 10f, and seemed to stay 12f)...Dalakhani's Middle Persia (only stayed a mile).

However, Mars's dam is out of Rafha, who won the French Oaks.

It is a very confusing case, and one where (to me) dosage might be of help. Given all the mixed messages in his pedigree. He won so easily in a weak race on his only run, that we can't use racecourse evidence.

It is clear to me that he should stay a mile comfortably, but I have no idea if he will be best at a mile, 10f or 12f.

So dosage suggests we are looking at a 10f horse, I think. And that strikes me as very fair.

MARS (IRE) ch. C, 2010 DP = 5-2-13-4-0 (24) DI = 1.29 CD = 0.33
 
Grey said:
Dawn Approach's dam is by Phone Trick, whose progeny have a notably higher strike rate at 2 and are "often precocious" according to the RP sire comment.

On the other in some years the Guineas races are sometimes more of a finale to the juvenile campaign than the start of the 3yo season.
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This is a key point and the main reason I personally believe Dawn Approach is unlikely to have progressed as much as others. He may have enough in the bag to still win but not for me....
 
Im usually dead against that and its often certain trainers exploiting well built early two year olds. Fair enough too. A fine seam to mine

but Bolger just races them anyway doesn't he? he has blown a couple of horses (not in that way ..although who knows) by doing so but it would appear that theres a lot of confidence in the yard about DA and im happily on this classy looking animal
 
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Why wouldn't you be confident if you had an all-conquering 2yo as favourite for the Classics?

I think there are more than enough reasons to oppose him (price, opposition, woories about training on).

I have a few nicker on Toronado, but I see it as a very open Guineas.
 
Too simplistic. A trainer with his ability and experience will have a very good idea whether he's trained on or not and I don't see how anyone can dismiss the obvious vibes and comments from the yard
 
If you're not on already Dawn Approach is too skinny. I don't think he's as vulnerable as his sire was over this mile though.
 
I respect Dawn Approach but he's a very short price. He reminds me a bit of Tenby, odds-on in the 1993 Derby. He'd won all the right races but his form tied in very closely with Planetary Aspect. To the question "how good is Planetary Aspect," the answer turned out to be "not very".

How good is Leitir Mor?
 
Didn't realise he had gone that short. Pleased that I was on a while ago. Evens is a bit silly
 
gus said:
I respect Dawn Approach but he's a very short price. He reminds me a bit of Tenby, odds-on in the 1993 Derby. He'd won all the right races but his form tied in very closely with Planetary Aspect. To the question "how good is Planetary Aspect," the answer turned out to be "not very".

How good is Leitir Mor?
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Not very
 
Got some good bets on at 10s and 8s with dawn approach and was feeling really smug. Would have liked a.run though and worried toronado will be that little bit fitter. Also had dawn app in a double with Maureen so fingers crossed they'll both do the biz!
 
They don't generally directly express doubts as a rule (although without being able to name names I'm certain I have seen this expressed, Hannon Monsieur chevalier I think? ) but you do hear "we will have to see if he's trained on" frequently which is indicative..

In couldn't give a monkeys whether anyone wants to take on board trainers comments or not because its hardly an exact science but if jb is expressing strong confidence about this horses progression then I know where I would like to be. I might have this wrong but strikes me he Sounds more confident than he did about new approach

And there are exceptions to that of course as well but no way should it be ignored
 
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