Road to the 2000 Guineas

Yes im sure. Bolger would happily display hopeless judgement of hos own horses just to "wind the press up"
 
Ok . I thought you were being sarky but he does toy with the press a little sometimes ? But obviously wouldn't where it made him look daft. That's all I was saying
 
SteveM said:
Blogged the race together with Toronado's prospects for later on here: http://horseracingstrategyanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/
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Cheers, Steve. I was disappointed not to see it the Weekender.

I'm also thinking Dawn Approach is the most likely winner but that's hardly original. The sectionals experts are making compelling cases for Toronado too so it might be a pretty strong renewal. I'm not convinced the other Bolger runner is just there to make the pace, though. I'm also having a second look at the Hannon second string as they have previous with this type.

I might look at the market without the favourite.
 
Glad it’s of use guys. Apologies about the wonky tabulation. I can never get the published version to appear quite the same as the draft. Mind you I'm rubbish at that sort of thing. Alternative version here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2013/2013_2000_guineas_preview.htm

The figures do seem to point to a shift to stamina this time (perhaps partly to do with the success of Camelot last year, not to mention Frankel). Dawn Approach conforms to a typical winner, but most of the others look like coming into their own beyond a mile.
 
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Big group of us heading over for the day tomorrow. Flying in to Stansted and a convoy (well, two minivans) driving up to Newmarket.

Does anybody know a decent place for breakfast in the area (either Newmarket area or anywhere between Stansted and Newmarket)?
 
Euronymous said:
I'll be there as well tomorrow. Very excited.
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Enjoy it. The Rowley Mile course has its critics but I've always liked going racing there.

Dawn Approach is out to 3.0 on Betfair and available at that price to significant money. Toronado is vying for favouritism at just 3.15.
 
backed toronado this morning at 9/4. i'd hoped for bigger on the day of race markets but it seems he's only going one way. think he'll go off as fav.
 
I'm quite happy with my small ew on Van der Neer. Given that so many of these horses are probably 12f or 6/7f horses he is at least an 8/10f horse. Just probably an 8/10f horse [who doesn't do bends very well] who's a lot slower than the main pratagonists, that's all. And there are no bends tomorrow.
 
Given the history of dis/mis/info from the yard down the years, I ignore it all. If the horse turns up you can be sure it's 110% ready. Its form is really solid.

Did you do any sectionals for the Dewhurst or any of its other races, EC1?

I admit Toronado looks a big danger and your sectional analysis I find compelling but Dawn Approach looked very special as a juvenile.
 
Finding it near impossible to fancy anything the than the front 2 though stranger things have happened.

Could be all down to which gets the run of the race and which goes for home first. Neither give the impression of having an out of the ordinary turn of foot.

I have slight preference for Toronado as I feel New Approach takes a wee bit too much time to get into top gear. That said if he does get going and can hit full stride around the furlong marker his backers can probably go collect

So I took the cowards way out and backed them both. Payout is odds on but I'm very confident one or the other will win and 50% of the punters out there will be kicking themselves for not backing the right one.
 
I think Dawn Approach will struggle for toe. In both races where he met good horses last season, he had to work to get on top, and fast ground won't help him at all in that respect.
 
I watched a Racing UK collection of old 2000 Guineas on YouTube the other day. I was struck by the number of times that a hot favourite was the recipient of the commentary "He'll have to be a wonder horse to win form there".
 
A comment that could have applied to Frankel when he went 15 lengths clear after 3 furlongs.........reminded me of the movie Secretariat when the guy said "he's gone too fast" in one breath and "That's impossible" in the next

Doubt if we will see those sort of sparks flying today it'll be interesting but none of these 2 for me are wonder horses. If they make the winner a short priced Derby fav get ready with those lay buttons is my opinion on what looks a very very ordinary guineas
 
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