Road to the 2000 Guineas

I wonder if he will handle Epsom. Big stride and all , although sometimes that can be overplayed perhaps
 
5/2 for the Derby looks a bet. What about the 16/1 Toranodo for the Derby? Surely thats an over reaction.
 
Kauto said:
Toranodo had his heartbroken there.
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That is possible but the problem I have with that analysis is that Glory Awaits did not do a Dubawi Gold and run on from the rear to take second but was in fact ahead and making the running and then regained second.
 
SlimChance said:
5/2 for the Derby looks a bet. What about the 16/1 Toranodo for the Derby? Surely thats an over reaction.
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I took 8s a couple of weeks ago. I'd be tempted to go back in at double the odds. I suspect something will emerge regarding his not getting home today. I can't accept he was burst by the pace. Glory Awaits was up there the whole way and didn't burst.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took 8s a couple of weeks ago. I'd be tempted to go back in at double the odds. I suspect something will emerge regarding his not getting home today. I can't accept he was burst by the pace. Glory Awaits was up there the whole way and didn't burst.
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If he were to run he would SP around 11/2.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took 8s a couple of weeks ago. I'd be tempted to go back in at double the odds. I suspect something will emerge regarding his not getting home today. I can't accept he was burst by the pace. Glory Awaits was up there the whole way and didn't burst.
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i was thinking more of the horse going well..then DA comes alongside and T was immediately asked to go with him.. which he did for a few strides..it wasn't the pace they were going overall..it was being pushed within a matter of strides to go with DA that seemed to empty T
 
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EC1 said:
i was thinking more of the horse going well..then DA comes alongside and T was immediately asked to go with him.. which he did for a few strides..it wasn't the pace they were going overall..it was being pushed within a matter of strides to go with DA that seemed to empty T
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That strikes me as unlikely to explain him falling in a heap so quickly - had it done you would have expected Glory Awaits to be out the back .
 
Is it possible that the rain beforehand made the surface slippy and none of the fancied horses (bar the winner) acted on it. How else could glory awaits be second
 
16/1 taken.

Let's hope sunny Jim does a New Approach and lets people conclude DA won't run at Epsom, then maybe I can get 120 a couple of nights before the Derby like I did with the daddy!

Hopefully by that time I could have laid off the bets on Toronado.

I'm also reminded of the time The Minstrel went from 7/2 to 20/1 after finishing fourth at Newmarket. That was another steal.
 
davidjohnson said:
Toronado didn't look a Derby horse before, and looks even less like one now.
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I can sort of see how some might be led to that conclusion, but he ought to stay pretty well. Was simply in the wrong race today.

DA's blend of speed and stamina was right for today, but less good for the Derby.

That's a discussion for a different day though. Winnings to count today!:)
 
I got the impression last year that the best around were in hiding and that we wouldn't be seeing the best of the best until after the Guineas.

Telescope was one of the obvious ones, being trained by SMS and put away after just one run, as was Mars.

Today it was very much a case of something had to finish second. Dawn Approach was in a different league to them and it would be crazy to start saying he only beat this or he only beat that. He has simply slaughtered them.

The big question now is will he stay 12f? I have my doubts as he looked if anything too much at home over the mile.

If Jim Bolger decides to follow the same path to the Derby as he did with New Approach we won't know if Dawn Approach stays 12f or not until Derby day.

I was very confident he wouldn't stay 12 furlong before the Guineas now after laying him for the Derby I feel much less confident but I am on the No side of the fence

Excellent performance today can't fault him at all.
 
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SteveM said:
I can sort of see how some might be led to that conclusion, but he ought to stay pretty well. Was simply in the wrong race today.

DA's blend of speed and stamina was right for today, but less good for the Derby.

That's a discussion for a different day though. Winnings to count today!:)
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i saw it the other way round..the further DA went the better he looked..the further T went the worse he looked...i want a Derby winner in a guineas going forward at the end not backwards tbh
 
Ardross said:
It was utterly proper of her to ask that . She is a journalist - he runs an organisation that is quite properly under scrutiny . It is not a Middle Eastern potentate - he has to put up with questioning in a democracy.
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Do you think Jim Bolger would be happy about it raising it's ugly head and marring a great bit of training by him ?

Bringing it up on his day was in bad taste as "Guilty by Association" is how the viewing public tend to think
 
Sorry, but that was a horror effort with a view to running a big race in just a months time. He sweated up and was a bit keen, but his finishing effort wasn't simply a case of being ridden inefficiently, he finished corpsed, as if there was something wrong with him.

It will take a mammoth training performance to get him there it top shape. Even if he did, the doubts about his stamina (for me) linger on, and now he's up against a horse that has raised the bar further in terms of performance that it will likely take to win.

I was unsure of Dawn Approach's stamina for a mile and a half prior to today, but less so know. He'll be a very tough nut to crack.
 
Wall E said:
Is it possible that the rain beforehand made the surface slippy and none of the fancied horses (bar the winner) acted on it.
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Interesting concept. I certainly think it will have had some effect but can't see it having affected everything except the winner.

There was no need for the question from Clare Balding - it should have been about the horse and the win. Unless she was about to ask how pumped Dawn Approach was with enhancers, which, if you want to take the broader view of the general public, may have been a better question from a journalistic angle.
 
EC1 said:
i saw it the other way round..the further DA went the better he looked..the further T went the worse he looked...i want a Derby winner in a guineas going forward at the end not backwards tbh
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DA looked comfortable at this trip and, as expected, stayed on well because he was suited so well to it. He has run exactly as those of us who supported him imagined he would (i.e. got the mile well with something to spare). Although he won even better than I was expecting.

But if he and Toronado both line up in the Derby I’d very much doubt he would finish in front of Toronado (which of course doesn’t mean Toronado would win). The market in other words has got it wrong.

Toronado was asked to race against a very good horse today and one better suited to the trip. I'm almost tempted to think DA might get away with not getting the full trip in the Derby, but such horses are always found out by at least one or two better suited to the full requirement.

O'Brien has probably still got the Derby winner, but Toronado is big at 16s.
 
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