Road To The 2014 QM Champion Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
  • Start date Start date
Clearly, I haven't canvassed my position sufficiently well judging by the reactions on the thread. Put it down to my poor communication skills.
I'll have another go:
Indeed, horses fall in chases; I know -- I've backed enough of 'em! In the example you quoted E.C., yes the price of 5/1 has the risk-of-fall built into the price. But why would you risk the same amount again at one-fifth the odds on the understanding that there is a definite risk of a fall? You're getting poor value against an occurence that might well happen.

You mention flat races. Could I ask you to consider this: what about the instance of a notorious stand-in-the-stalls horse? The horse that has refused to start on previous occasions. Say he is 10/1. You might take a view that "today" he just might deign to start, but would you also put the same amount on him at 2/1 in an E/W bet?
 
icebreaker said:
But why would you risk the same amount again at one-fifth the odds on the understanding that there is a definite risk of a fall? You're getting poor value against an occurence that might well happen.
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It sounds to me like you've convinced yourself that the chance of a horse falling is unrelated to the chance of it winning, but somehow is related to the chance of it being placed (or at least related to a greater degree).

Something is going to be placed - and that something is going to have undergone the possibility that it might fall or be brought down at some point.
 
If you think a horse might win if it gets round but is not a reliable jumper you would probably prefer to back it win only, because the main reason why it might not win is also a reason why it wouldn't place either.
 
Not exactly, simmo.
I'm totally against it from a value-call perspective.
A horse falls -- it happens. But you've already got, say, 5/1 against that eventuality on the Win bet. With the E/W bet you've poured as much money on again ................ but only at one-fifth the odds. Still the horse falls, wiping out twice the amount of your Win bet.
You've got much less bang for your buck.
 
Grey said:
If you think a horse might win if it gets round but is not a reliable jumper you would probably prefer to back it win only, because the main reason why it might not win is also a reason why it wouldn't place either.
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Exactimundo.
Put much better than I ever could.
(Although, and I appreciate this is a personal issue, I prefer to apply the same principle to all Chases).
 
I never do ew but that's about right grey and ice. Also it's not just falling. More pertinent is that a bad round of jumping just knocks them out of the race anyway. That's probably a more likely scenario
 
I will stop following the sport if I ever get to the point that I am trying to eek out a few pound from a c. 6 month investment on a horse - that might not run - to come 2nd or 3rd to another horse - that might not run.
 
wilsonl said:
I will stop following the sport if I ever get to the point that I am trying to eek out a few pound from a c. 6 month investment on a horse - that might not run - to come 2nd or 3rd to another horse - that might not run.
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Spot on
 
Grey said:
If you think a horse might win if it gets round but is not a reliable jumper you would probably prefer to back it win only, because the main reason why it might not win is also a reason why it wouldn't place either.
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This is not the situation that was described though - we were talking about a blanket ban on e/w in chases because every horse faces the possibility of falling - not about a specific dodgy jumper where such thinking would be more realistic.
 
I started betting as a 10 year old on bad ew in gaff track maiden hurdles in Ireland. A large % of my bets are ew. I bet to supplement my income and for enjoyment. I don't enjoy losing. When you are given an opportunity to beat the numbers you have to consider it strongly.

The 8:20 in Dundalk was a brilliant example of a bad ew race this am but Smullens mount being buried makes it slightly less so as now it looks there is only one place available.

The straight place concession is disappearing as that is a license to clean up...
 
SlimChance said:
Bookmakers win because the majority of their client base are idiots not because of their model. If it wasnt for Betfair they wouldn't know how to price a coin flip.
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Without wishing to drag this up once again, I don't get a lot a list of this

Unless an invidual book is <100% then that's that really. No matter how you stack it or slice it. You can play around with any number of 4s and they will not become 5s. That's all there is to it really

Frog has a point about computers. Just trying to beat a market by maths alone is not going to happen
 
clivex said:
Without wishing to drag this up once again, I don't get a lot a list of this

Unless an invidual book is <100% then that's that really. No matter how you stack it or slice it. You can play around with any number of 4s and they will not become 5s. That's all there is to it really

Frog has a point about computers. Just trying to beat a market by maths alone is not going to happen
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You can put up your prices to 150% and it can still contain ricks.
 
clivex said:
Without wishing to drag this up once again, I don't get a lot a list of this

Unless an invidual book is <100% then that's that really. No matter how you stack it or slice it. You can play around with any number of 4s and they will not become 5s. That's all there is to it really

Frog has a point about computers. Just trying to beat a market by maths alone is not going to happen
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Bad e/w races are just that <300% or <400%. It's funny how at different times on this thread both sides of an arguments are used to argue against me when it suits.
 
An interesting question posted by Slim, but forever destined to black-hole, principally because;

a) Few are into tying-up 'real' money for 4 months
b) Even fewer are prepared to tie it up in races where, effectively, you're throwing away half the bet
c) If you're smart/clever/lucky enough to pick a yoke that actually runs in the QMCC (increasingly small fields a trend), you're probably smart/clever/lucky enough to use that capital to better effect over the course of the next four months anyway.
 
Grasshopper said:
An interesting question posted by Slim, but forever destined to black-hole, principally because;

a) Few are into tying-up 'real' money for 4 months
b) Even fewer are prepared to tie it up in races where, effectively, you're throwing away half the bet
c) If you're smart/clever/lucky enough to pick a yoke that actually runs in the QMCC (increasingly small fields a trend), you're probably smart/clever/lucky enough to use that capital to better effect over the course of the next four months anyway.
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A good post but if you include it in e/w doubles and trebles with other bad e/w then the win part doesn't matter because the place part of the bet will be ridiculously inflated over the true odds. No one is going to refuse a bet on the Cheltenham festival so it almost makes the bet look muggish when in fact it should be an account closer.
 
On The Bridle said:
I started betting as a 10 year old on bad ew in gaff track maiden hurdles in Ireland. A large % of my bets are ew. I bet to supplement my income and for enjoyment. I don't enjoy losing. When you are given an opportunity to beat the numbers you have to consider it strongly.

The 8:20 in Dundalk was a brilliant example of a bad ew race this am but Smullens mount being buried makes it slightly less so as now it looks there is only one place available.

The straight place concession is disappearing as that is a license to clean up...
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It was a perfect the e/w race. The 7/4 joint fav was available at 7/2 this morning e/w 1/5 odds while trading 1.32 to place lay on Betfair. There was only three to be concerned with.
 
SlimChance said:
A good post but if you include it in e/w doubles and trebles with other bad e/w then the win part doesn't matter because the place part of the bet will be ridiculously inflated over the true odds. No one is going to refuse a bet on the Cheltenham festival so it almost makes the bet look muggish when in fact it should be an account closer.
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Fair enough, but will you be accommodated to an extent where it's worth tying-up a percentage of your tank? I have my doubts.
 
Grasshopper said:
Fair enough, but will you be accommodated to an extent where it's worth tying-up a percentage of your tank? I have my doubts.
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Its just a project to tip away at. Its not for the lazy.If you end up investing only £200 but that £200 means has averaged 7/1 about a horse that goes off 5/4 in the place market then it will have been worth it win or lose. You need to eek out edges. If you offered me 11/10 on a coin I wouldn't have my whole tank on it just because its perceived value but I'll happily build a good position.


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Slim

You slag off the traders at your employees so (not being sarcastic here at all for once) why don't you front up the bosses and ask for that role? They will probably not understand a fcking word of the above but at least reckon you have thought something through? Which you clearly have

Surely it's got to be better than cleaning out the bogs and sweeping up the car park?
 
clivex said:
Slim

You slag off the traders at your employees so (not being sarcastic here at all for once) why don't you front up the bosses and ask for that role? They will probably not understand a fcking word of the above but at least reckon you have thought something through? Which you clearly have

Surely it's got to be better than cleaning out the bogs and sweeping up the car park?
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I'm slagging off the notion that traders are all knowing and all seeing. I found a market during the week that is 44% over broke. No doubt the trader that devised it thought he was being very clever in devising a new maket to increase the turnover and market offerings on his product. So when he gets filled in by the sharps will he even understand why? I doubt it.

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