Road to the Champion Hurdle 19/20

Slim said:
Willie Mullins has said the ground will decide where Benie runs but more likely it will be what happens at Cheltenham on Saturday. they can run Honeysuckle wherever they want, she wins nothing.
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Completely agree re Honeysuckle. Just a massive talking horse that people want to be good. So much so, I’d match bet Stormy Island against her in the Mares.
 
Double J said:
Completely agree re Honeysuckle. Just a massive talking horse that people want to be good. So much so, I’d match bet Stormy Island against her in the Mares.
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If anyone looks at her form in search of a formline that lets her win a Champion Hurdle they might be a while...
 
Interesting article (not often you can say that anymore) in the RP today by Sam Walker who compiles the RPR's.

He shows the expected RPR trajectory for first-time Champion Chase winners and how they progress from 3 runs back, 2 runs back, final prep run and expected winning standard.

Obviously it's a different discipline but the same fundamentals ought to apply for first-time Champion hurdle winners.

Honeysuckle has clocked RPR's of 145 and 160 this season and raced on the track only six times.

In a sub-standard year, and with no obvious pace in the race outside of Klassical Dream, if she continues on the same trajectory she will be favourite for the Champion Hurdle after Leopardstown.

At he same time there will be plenty like Slim waiting to dispel this theory!
 
redundant pal said:
Interesting article (not often you can say that anymore) in the RP today by Sam Walker who compiles the RPR's.

He shows the expected RPR trajectory for first-time Champion Chase winners and how they progress from 3 runs back, 2 runs back, final prep run and expected winning standard.

Obviously it's a different discipline but the same fundamentals ought to apply for first-time Champion hurdle winners.

Honeysuckle has clocked RPR's of 145 and 160 this season and raced on the track only six times.

In a sub-standard year, and with no obvious pace in the race outside of Klassical Dream, if she continues on the same trajectory she will be favourite for the Champion Hurdle after Leopardstown.

At he same time there will be plenty like Slim waiting to dispel this theory!
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RPRs
Regression trajectory theory
"if she continues"
Hyped mares

Too much material here...
 
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I followed Paul Kealy in today on Thomas Darby at 40/1 ew.

I had had this one in mind for the County so let it go unbacked last time when it won. It was a very good second to Klassical Dream in the Supreme despite finishing lame. I don't set too much store by that as I believe adrenaline masks pain but it couldn't have helped any.

PK argues that it's very tight on ratings. Call Me Lord (160) is the highest-rated of the home runners (not counting the mares' allowance) and only Sharjah is higher. The RP card shows TD on 151 but he actually went up to 158 for that win. It clearly hasn't got through to the RP database.
 
Not watched much racing this season......a handful of big Saturday’s only really, but I’m starting to form some opinions, so here goes.

Worst Champion Hurdle in years this.....you need to go back to Katchit to find one as bad. On that basis, I want to be against the principals, save for Pentland Hills, who I think can get the job done, if he is given a Sea Pigeon ride.

The only a/p bet I have in the race, is a tenner at 75 the aforementioned Thomas Darby, which I slung on just to have something running for me, when Olly Murphy said he’d go back over hurdles.

It’s a poor affair overall, however, and a shock result would absolutely not shock me.
 
I agree. Sub-par and definitely wide open. The winner could come from anywhere in the market, and it could well be one of those seasons where something comes through the handicap route.

The only one I have in the book that potentially fits that bill is Eldorado Allen, but I could be tempted by Thomas Darby. The thing with him though is I don't think his price will shift too much until the week before so I'm prepared to wait. His price is definitely wrong though in relation to Klassical Dream.

I backed Pentland Hills at 12's straight after the Call Me Lord race. I'm not sure I'd back him now at 7's though. I'll re-look at this race now (as I will most races), after the market shake up following the DRF.
 
I’m rather hoping PH gets written-off as a gutless pig during all the ‘informative’ Preview nights, and drifts to a double-figure price. He’s an each-way bet to nothing, if he hits 10/1 before the race.
 
I'm not sure it was a great Triumph Hurdle so I have reservations about PH on that score and on his age.

It looks to me like Hendo is looking after PH for the time being. Something longer-term, maybe?
 
Maruco said:
I agree. Sub-par and definitely wide open. The winner could come from anywhere in the market, and it could well be one of those seasons where something comes through the handicap route.
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I take it horses can still be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle?

There are one or two big potential improvers in The Betfair, who if they won impressively, would surely entice their trainers in to supplementing them.
 
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Probably wasn’t a great Triumph, Maurice - they rarely are, minus a few exceptions - but this CH is so bad, I think the 5yos do have to come into consideration.

Don’t think PH is being ‘looked after’ necessarily. I reckon it’s taken them until now to figure-out how best to ride him.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’m rather hoping PH gets written-off as a gutless pig during all the ‘informative’ Preview nights, and drifts to a double-figure price. He’s an each-way bet to nothing, if he hits 10/1 before the race.
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Nice to see you back Grassy, always interested to hear your thoughts.
I agree, Pentland is definitely going to be there or thereabouts, Nico gonna have to be cool as a cucumber in producing him as late as possible.
 
Grasshopper said:
Not watched much racing this season......a handful of big Saturday’s only really, but I’m starting to form some opinions, so here goes.

Worst Champion Hurdle in years this.....you need to go back to Katchit to find one as bad. On that basis, I want to be against the principals, save for Pentland Hills, who I think can get the job done, if he is given a Sea Pigeon ride.

The only a/p bet I have in the race, is a tenner at 75 the aforementioned Thomas Darby, which I slung on just to have something running for me, when Olly Murphy said he’d go back over hurdles.

It’s a poor affair overall, however, and a shock result would absolutely not shock me.
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Welcome back mucker.

Guess if Henry's mare Sunday weekend,she goes off the jolly in March

Looking at history.it would be some leap of faith for her to be that good

One of Willie's for me
 
That looked like greenness.

Amazing how something that couldn't win a Class 6 handicap can be a Triumph winner and a Champion Hurdle contender in the space of about 18 months.
 
not convinced she does yet, 50/50

with or without her where do you even begin to unpick this champion hurdle, think at the moment saldier is the bet but you'll probably need the NRNB concession
 
i think you could pull the fly out of retirement, give him 2 weeks hard training and he'd enter the equation!

its wide open
 
Honeysuckle no where near good enough, but will have learnt a huge amount from today. It's a dogshite of a race and right now I'd have to say Sadlier from the mare.
 
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Dog shite is a compliment, I honestly thought that Benson (a 5 year old who had never jumped a hurdle on a racecourse) was coming to win the contenders hurdle at Sandown today. Perhaps it would be better to just cancel it this year or have a random draw for the winner.
 
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