Road to the Champion Hurdle 19/20

Marb said:
I wonder if Twisty wants to bring The New One out of retirement hahaha.
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Would love for that to happen.

Twiston-Davies making a tool of himself with this horse in two-mile Grade 1’s, has been one of the best things in Jumps racing over the last ten years.

There should be some sort of filter on the Internet, which bars mention of his name, in the context of a Champion Hurdle.
 
Grasshopper said:
Would love for that to happen.

Twiston-Davies making a tool of himself with this horse in two-mile Grade 1’s, has been one of the best things in Jumps racing over the last ten years.

There should be some sort of filter on the Internet, which bars mention of his name, in the context of a Champion Hurdle.
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Apparently he’s entered Ballyandy just to cause you sleepless nights Nick. The bullish statements will come in an ITV Racing interview shortly.
 
I reckon there’s a fair chance Pic D’orhy comes here now given it’s such a poor renewal. Willie was known to fancy Ciel de Neige as a well handicapped horse, and if that’s correct Pic D’orhy has finally shown Nicholls what he was hoping he’d be. We know he was undercooked for the Triumph, and with Pentland Hills 2nd favourite here he surely won’t be able to resist. In such a poor renewal it’s hardly tilting at windmills. Espoir D’Allen was a 155 horse last year and won by 15 lengths.

Both have likely screwed up big price ante post bets for me at the Festival now I guess. The handicapper will surely see to that.
 
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Another thought occurs to me. Perhaps Willie will re-route either Melon or Cilaos Emery here. Even Faugheen will come in to their thoughts.

Have you guys got any thought on any others that could be re-routed?
 
I think you could quibble about who gets marked-up what from the Betfair Hurdle, plus or minus a few lbs either way - but I’d be amazed if it had any relevance to the Champion Hurdle.

Whilst I enthusiastically-endorse the theory it (the Champion Hurdle) is an appalling race, it isn’t so appalling that it brings any of the Betfair principals into contention. Even the winner - the only one you could remotely make a case for - would need to find practically another stone - on top of whatever he gets raised to - to trouble the judge.

Granted, the winner is lightly-raced, and could still improve, but he didn’t win like he had stacks in hand yesterday, and I think it’s best not to get carried-away with the result.

I get why people might be inclined to boost for Pic D’Ohry. Given how thin the Champion Hurdle is, we’d all love something to spring from the handicap ranks and shake things up, so it’s perfectly natural.

But he isn’t the horse you’re looking for.

That horse is Thomas Darby.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Whilst I enthusiastically-endorse the theory it (the Champion Hurdle) is an appalling race, it isn’t so appalling that it brings any of the Betfair principals into contention. Even the winner - the only one you could remotely make a case for - would need to find practically another stone - on top of whatever he gets raised to - to trouble the judge.
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I'd go along pretty much with all of that, GH, bar this snippet.

Say PD'O gets 4lbs to take him up to 150. Another stone takes him to 164. If I owned anything else in the race I'd be worried about something being able to it 164 in what looks - at the moment - a really poor renewal, probably the worst since Flakey Dove's, which is going some.

Personally, I don't believe PDO is anywhere near a 164 hurdler, though.
 
Accounting for the mares’ allowances, I reckon you’ll need to run to 168 to win, so we’re not miles out.

Champion Hurdle finish could easily be a blanket-job like the Betfair.
 
Grasshopper said:
Accounting for the mares’ allowances, I reckon you’ll need to run to 168 to win, so we’re not miles out.

Champion Hurdle finish could easily be a blanket-job like the Betfair.
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I forgot about the wummins' tease. That could be the deciding factor this year right enough. Off the top of my head, I think Sharjah is top-rated on 162 so, in theory, a mare rated 156 could win.

God help us.
 
It may not throw out many CH winners, but it is used as a legit stepping-stone for CH runners, and I think “Trial” is therefore a fair enough description.

If it’s any consolation, adding ‘The New One’ to the name, provides clear warning that it’s a race that doesn’t produce Champion Hurdle winners.
 
Hhmm I still think 'trial' is rather a misnomer seen as since 2000 the Champion Hurdle has had 26 runners who had ran in the Champion Hurdle 'Trial' in January, and in that time none of them won and only 3 placed.
 
Grasshopper said:
It may not throw out many CH winners, but it is used as a legit stepping-stone for CH runners, and I think “Trial” is therefore a fair enough description.

If it’s any consolation, adding ‘The New One’ to the name, provides clear warning that it’s a race that doesn’t produce Champion Hurdle winners.
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You're hatred and distain towards TNO is almost as strong as your love for Hurricane Fly!!!

Very close race. Photo finish [emoji1]
 
Slim said:
What will get supplemented?
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Min won’t, but I would.

Sceaux Royal. Won’t get close in a Champion Chase.
Melon
Grand Sancy.

Something will I’d guess get supplemented, it’ll go short in the betting and go off no value I’d imagine. I reckon it could be Melon.
 
HawkWing said:
After this weekend, I'm convinced that Supasundae will win the Champion Hurdle. Haven't been as confident about a 33/1+ shot in a long while.
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Hard to know what merit it has but Tom Segal concurs in Racing Post Q&A today. Was looking at the field again and with Honeysuckle, Benie des Dieux and Envoi Allen unlikely to run there is nothing in the field. Epatante the only other conceivable value in the race. (Paul Kealy sweet on Thomas Darby but I can't see it)
 
HawkWing said:
Hard to know what merit it has but Tom Segal concurs in Racing Post Q&A today. Was looking at the field again and with Honeysuckle, Benie des Dieux and Envoi Allen unlikely to run there is nothing in the field. Epatante the only other conceivable value in the race. (Paul Kealy sweet on Thomas Darby but I can't see it)
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Think Supasundae will be my dart on the day to back up my Sharjah bet. Not a race I’ll be getting heavily involved in though.
 
Is Buveur D’Air definitely out for the season?

Its all gone quiet. And the last article I read he was recovering well. Let everyone pile money into everything else, then chuck in the big dog for one last dance?

Or am I just wishful thinking?
 
Nicky Henderson’s next statement:

Well it came as a shock to us, he was recovering well but we never foreseen this. He’s been doing some light galloping for the last couple of weeks and all looked good. So we just thought we’d try a piece of work with him and wow. It was astonishing, as if the injury never happened. I was gobsmacked. I’ve spoken to JP, and if he’s fit and well which he seems to be showing at home, well he has to be seriously considered.
 
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HawkWing said:
Hard to know what merit it has but Tom Segal concurs in Racing Post Q&A today. Was looking at the field again and with Honeysuckle, Benie des Dieux and Envoi Allen unlikely to run there is nothing in the field. Epatante the only other conceivable value in the race. (Paul Kealy sweet on Thomas Darby but I can't see it)
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I'm told something big is getting supplemented. Dangerous to make assumptions on the field just now.
 
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