Road To The Champion Hurdle

Euronymous said:
No, he was that price because the bookmakers over factored his King George run into his price. Just like they over factored Captain Cee Bees last fence fall into Sizing Europe's price. Why was New Approach available at 7/1 for his Derby on the day of the race - despite having easily the best form of any of the runners? Like I said examples are numerous.
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you took my WF point without the second part I mentioned....he wasn't that price because of the bookmakers though..he was that price because punters deserted him partly due to not recognisisng and then ignoring his blow out on too fast ground...a lack of analysis

bookies only offer prices..its punters that make the markets

New Approach was 7/1 because his trainer threw great doubts over his well being for the race as I seem to remember..he wasn't go take part etc

these aren't really good examples of what Bar was talking about though are they?..but you have definately highlighted how laziness is the biggest enemy of the punter..ignoring speed figures..ignoring pace analysis..Cape Blanco springs to mind when he won in Ireland...yes its endless..but i wasn't making that point..i responded to Bar's point about horses that are at the top like KS.


OTB :D
 
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On The Bridle said:
EC1 takes on all-comers in 60 page Champion Hurdle Thread Showdown!! Who's next ?? Roll Up Roll Up ........ If OW or MC wins the CH the forum members should commision a wall-paper version of this thread and present it to EC so he can wallpaper the living room and regale his guests with how he told us so! If however neither of the above do maybe we could do something similar with a toilet roll version!!!:D

I love it EC, I love it!!
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and if HF loses i'll do a toilet roll version for 90% of the forum..as it looks thats how many are on him;)
 
EC1 said:
you took my WF point without the second part I mentioned....he wasn't that price because of the bookmakers though..he was that price because punters deserted him partly due to not recognisisng and then ignoring his blow out on too fast ground...a lack of analysis

bookies only offer prices..its punters that make the markets

New Approach was 7/1 because his trainer threw great doubts over his well being for the race as I seem to remember..he wasn't go take part etc
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I do 95% of my punting on Betfair so when I say bookmakers I really mean layers. So yes, I am talking about other punters not bookmakers.

New Approach's well being was never in doubt. But he was beaten further at the Curragh than he was at Newmarket by Henry..... and that's what punters latched onto. The lively ground made this an irrelevant factor though.
 
Euronymous said:
I do 95% of my punting on Betfair so when I say bookmakers I really mean layers. So yes, I am talking about other punters not bookmakers.

New Approach's well being was never in doubt. But he was beaten further at the Curragh than he was at Newmarket by Henry..... and that's what punters latched onto. The lively ground made this an irrelevant factor though.
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as I said Euro..such as NA at that stage wasn't a KS type..he was a good example after the Derby though of a horse thats poorish value once everyone and grandma know about em..and his prices 2/1 lost - 8/13 -6/5 reflect that

for some reason i wasn't betting in that period much and missed all the will he.. won't he run stuff..only what i read a little on here..that sort of carry on can affect a price too i think.
 
On The Bridle said:
EC1 takes on all-comers in 60 page Champion Hurdle Thread Showdown!! Who's next ?? Roll Up Roll Up ........ If OW or MC wins the CH the forum members should commision a wall-paper version of this thread and present it to EC so he can wallpaper the living room and regale his guests with how he told us so! If however neither of the above do maybe we could do something similar with a toilet roll version!!!:D

I love it EC, I love it!!
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I never thought I'd get a migraine listening to a (Grasshopper) in the City Of London (EC1), thank god I kept my distance and brought my Binocular(s) :lol:
 
swedish chef said:
Greatwood - using Olofi who ran almost to the lb on his previous C/D & going run.

Menorah 157+
Bothy 130+
Manyriverstocross 139+
Any Given Day 140
Olofi 130

International Hurdle using Cue Card & Silviniaco Conti

Menorah 160+
Cue Card 155+
Silviniaco Conti 158 (needs further)
Clerks Choice 151 (needs good fast ground)

Ascot 30 Oct
Dunraven Storm 142+ ( was running consistently to this mark)
Recession Proof 138+ (proved to 4-5lb well in Totesport Trophy)


Chelt 12th Nov
Cue Card 151+
Dunraven Storm 143

Totesport Trophy - conditions suited first five home
Recession Proof 138
Bothy 137 - I think he improved 7lb for his Greatwood run and there was a lot of strong tips about for him on the day to this effect.
Notus De La Tour 144
The Betchworth Kid 141
Soldatino 150

I did nap Recession Proof on another board on the day but confess to not having a bet as everyone I knew was on Bothy but unless you believe Bothy ran to 136 in the Greatwood and Menorah didn't improve in the International - then I'm struggling to get Menorah into the mid 160's. I do believe he's capable of it but has he got 10-12lb improvement in him to win a CH?
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27th Nov Fighting Fifth – Impossible to rate imo as it turned into a sprint off a slow pace
Peddlers Cross – proved he could quicken off a slow pace
Starluck – Always runs well at the start of the season
Binocular – Wasn’t fully fit imo
Bygones of Brid – Now on a mark of 138 and looks well h’cap given his right conditions 18f soft at Kelso where I think he’s capable of running 145+


15th Jan Christmas Hurdle – Rated through Starluck who normally runs best before Jan then seems to slowly lose form. Binocular got the fast pace he loves, hurdled beautifully and looked to win with plenty in hand. This imo was the best trial.

Binocular 164+
Overturn 160
Starluck 158

5th Feb Totesport Contenders Hurdle – Impossible to rate on my system as Binocular won on the bridle against very poor opposition


17th Feb VC Morebattle Hurdle – Rated through Bygones Of Brid who I believe had his ideal conditions.
Peddlers Cross 160+
Bygones Of Brid 145

Binocular – Been trained all season for the CH and deserves to be fav imo on his Christmas Hurdle run looks capable of 170+

Hurricane Fly – I can’t get a handle on his form as he just travels easily off the pace and quickens up nicely to do just enough – struggles a little in Heavy ground but still proves too good for the opposition. Visually looks like g/soft will suit and a genuine contender imo but lack of any Cheltenham experience a huge worry.

Peddlers Cross – Hasn’t had a fast run race and like Menorah hasn’t had to recorded a mark in the mid 160’s imo – was my e/way choice from the start due to trainers comments and visual appearance when racing but I now have doubts but bets already on.

Menorah – Again hasn’t had to record a mark in the mid 160’s imo but does look capable of at least that.

Mille Chief – is fast improving started the season on a mark of 136 and in his last 4 runs this season has run 143+. 147+, 152+, 159+ don’t think there’s enough left in the locker to win a Champion this year?

Oscar Whisky – 163+ After his three counties win I rated him 168+ but I think I have got this well wrong as I don’t think Celestial Halo stayed the trip that day although that horse has improved and I also believe Any Given Day and Karabak’s marks are too high by at least 5lb – he wouldn’t surprise me if he won as he looks to have a touch of class. He didn’t have to beat anything in the Welsh Champion hurdle and looks a top class 2 ½ - 3m horse in the making. Interesting horse.

Dunguib – unusual prep and hasn’t shown me enough but can only improve. Gives me the impression he needs 2 ½ - 3m

Khyber Kim – Age puts me off but with the right trainer – shouldn’t beat a fit Binocular.

Clerks Choice – The Dark Horse if it was good fast ground even more so with firm in the description.

Thousand Stars – I was there when he won last year and he impressed me enough to have him as one to follow this season. He has since proved what a well h’capped horse he was that day but I can’t find any reason including going why he should finish in front of Hurricane Fly.

Zaynar – hasn’t looked the same horse this season but dangerous to write off – the outsider of the field but my idea of a fun place bet at big odds on the day if he runs in this. Likely to go for the World Hurdle and doesn’t look like 3m is his distance but may run well if they have him back to his best.
 
Swedish. Is Overturn really a 160 horse? Can he be rated higher than Solwhit? On his Galway Hurdle run, as impressive as it was, I really can't believe he has improved that much subsequently. He drags the form of that race down - and his subsequent reverse at Wincanton confirms my feeling that Binocular didn't have much to do that day. It can't be the best trial. If it is, then it's a very poor reflection on the season.
 
Keep the faith, Bar - less than two weeks until we get it all back.:cool:

Admin, can you please fire some yellow cards ( or bullets if you have them handy) at those polluting the thread with talk of Flat racing. It's a worse affront than my handbags with EC1.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Is Hurricane Fly Back to Lay material. Determined to win money on the fucker after the kast two years.
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WM quite confident about him in the Weekender today. Winning 9 out of his 11 over jumps inc 7 grade 1`s.Travelled further than Chelt to win at Auteuil in 2008 so no problems there. For me I have to take out Menorah but the winner will come from these two imo.
 
How can you back a horse at 2/1 or so with a view to trading out in running? Surely there's no point at all to that?
 
EC1 said:
I think its potentially stronger than last year/QUOTE]

When isn't it "potentially stronger than last year". This is the sort of thing that is usually said and invariably it is no better or worse, but to a similar standard... which is why horses often come back and win more than once.
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Hamm said:
How can you back a horse at 2/1 or so with a view to trading out in running? Surely there's no point at all to that?
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I have £20 on Grand Crus already @ 3/1 so lets say I have another £80 on @ 9/4 that leaves me with 240/100. If I lay back 40 @ 6/4 that leaves me with 180/60. I never trade out, I just have partial lays that give me better prices.
 
bloodnok said:
Certainly not ratings Ardross. I have never taken notice of ratings, I base all my bets on my own opinions. Ratings and speed figures etc leave me cold. A pound here or there does not concern me. I look for class and that something special something that you see that leaves an impression on you.

It seems to me this game is all about opinions and your own personal interpretations of performances and what might happen the next time. This approach has led me to some staggeringly poor conclusions of course but occasionally I get lucky!

Do you think this years race is less competitve than last years? I am not being provocative I am just interested what you think.
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Last year we had Go Native , Khyber Kim and Zaynar as the up and coming young pretenders . This year we have HF, Menorah and Peddlers Cross - I cannot see that on what they have achieved before the CH makes it a stronger field. The only thing that makes people say last year was less strong is that Binocular thrashed them all.
 
Ardross said:
Last year we had Go Native , Khyber Kim and Zaynar as the up and coming young pretenders . This year we have HF, Menorah and Peddlers Cross - I cannot see that on what they have achieved before the CH makes it a stronger field. The only thing that makes people say last year was less strong is that Binocular thrashed them all.
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Exactly... there is always such strength in depth, that it takes something extraordinary to be any different from the usual standard.
 
Bobbyjo said:
Swedish. Is Overturn really a 160 horse? Can he be rated higher than Solwhit? On his Galway Hurdle run, as impressive as it was, I really can't believe he has improved that much subsequently. He drags the form of that race down - and his subsequent reverse at Wincanton confirms my feeling that Binocular didn't have much to do that day. It can't be the best trial. If it is, then it's a very poor reflection on the season.
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Overturn's Wincanton run was no surprise as he had a busy 12 months before hand and I think the Christmas hurdle would have bottomed him out. He needs and deserves a long rest. He also won the Galway hurdle comfortably off 145 - did he have a stone in hand that day? possibly - has he improved from that run? possibly. As for Solwhit on the system I use I couldn't tell you what my rating is as he runs against the same horses and each race is similar although I hope Hurricane Fly will give us a better idea after the Champion Hurdle. I rated the Christmas Hurdle on the back of the very consistent Starluck and I'm happy with that.
 
It's a tough one, but all I'm saying is that second home behind a fully tuned up Overturn in the Galway Hurdle was the top weight that day...and that top weight has been beaten miles in graded hurdles so, I'm not sure how good that race actually was.
 
Bobbyjo said:
It's a tough one, but all I'm saying is that second home behind a fully tuned up Overturn in the Galway Hurdle was the top weight that day...and that top weight has been beaten miles in graded hurdles so, I'm not sure how good that race actually was.
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Yes but Bahrain Storm was showing a preference for better ground and the race against Solwhit was on soft/heavy and I think its fair to say he wasn't suited by conditions that day. I certainly wouldn't have used him that day to rate the other horses around him but would love to own a horse like him.
 
Ardross said:
Last year we had Go Native , Khyber Kim and Zaynar as the up and coming young pretenders . This year we have HF, Menorah and Peddlers Cross - I cannot see that on what they have achieved before the CH makes it a stronger field. The only thing that makes people say last year was less strong is that Binocular thrashed them all.
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this is a perfect moment to make sure a certain horse gets mentioned on every page:)

i think you are right Ardross now i think about it..the field this year is weakened by the fact that Celestial Halo won't be in it as well:D
 
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