Does anyone believe Ruby would have won with any those horses?
Road To The Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
Does anyone believe Ruby would have won with any those horses?
EC1
On a break
why do you have win on any of them?
EC1
On a break
lets try and override Hamm's argument a bit..by using more runners in the fields
the median price for his runners = 16/1
in fields of 11+ runners 16/1 shots finish in the first 7 at a rate of 46%
he's managed that 10 times
so his % is 38%
i think thats a better representation of the stats..basically he underperforms a bit ..not bad..but I wouldn't say he's better than the average jock..slightly below average at the course i would say
the median price for his runners = 16/1
in fields of 11+ runners 16/1 shots finish in the first 7 at a rate of 46%
he's managed that 10 times
so his % is 38%
i think thats a better representation of the stats..basically he underperforms a bit ..not bad..but I wouldn't say he's better than the average jock..slightly below average at the course i would say
Last edited:
I like some of your statistics but on this case, I dont see the angle
most of the horses are non hopers and the position a horse is finishing in a 25 field for doesnt matter to finish 18th or 23th, once you are not involved with the chance to be at least placed, many drop their hands and are not trying hard.
the way to rate this jockey would be with statistics like that is to do it at Leopardstown when he is riding more races, at top level , with a good chance and riding against top horse and top jockeys,
I have been following for the last 3 years and he is a superb jockey.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
But the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle isn't run at Leopardstown?!
I thought the discussion started with the question "would Townend be jocked off the horse for the Champion Hurdle?"
I thought the discussion started with the question "would Townend be jocked off the horse for the Champion Hurdle?"
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Agree Colin but stats gleamed from riding 12/1+ shots at the Festival and comparing them with Ruby Walsh who'll be on 3 or 4 sub 7/1 chances every day isn't the way to judge their respective merits either.
Personally I'd prefer to have PT on board - he knows the horse well, he's the horses regular rider and the last time Ruby rode him he nearly made a complete balls up of it.
Personally I'd prefer to have PT on board - he knows the horse well, he's the horses regular rider and the last time Ruby rode him he nearly made a complete balls up of it.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
IS, the only point I'm trying to make is that Ruby has had much more experience over what is thought to be a difficult course to ride, and nothing more than that.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Fair enough but he's got 13 or 14 years on Townend - PT has enough experience of the course to know what to expect of the track and the Festival in general.
EC1
On a break
16/1 shots at Cheltenham aren't no hopers though Suny..not when some of those races have 7/1 favourites
i'm not saying its ideal to compare..I was just saying that even with those 20 odd races..you can form some sort of picture to analyse them
i would like to do the same approach with Ruby Walsh's rides from the last 2 years at Cheltenham..if someone could post the same data.
Don't forget that even if Ruby is riding shorter odds horses he will then be expected to have a very high % in the top 7..so it is a fairish way of comparing how well they ride the course
swedish chef
At the Start
EC1
On a break
interesting article
i would be wary of some of the figures though..the 3/1 or less is biased against McCoy and Walsh..some of their rides at that price..would probably actually have a 4/1 chance of winning..not the sp of 3/1..PT's 3/1 shots are just that..hence he can get a higher strike rate in that price band
the figures for those "bad" courses would scare me a bit..he seems to have bogie courses..of wich you could say Cheltenham is one of them..at the moment
Last edited:
EC1
On a break
A few years ago when I had lots of years of Racing Systems Builder I thought of another way of assessing how good jockeys were
if any of you have good databases you might be able to try this..I used Postmark ratings as they could be queried in RSB
Use any rating system you have on your databse and measure a jockey on how he performs on top rated horses in non handicaps..you could include all races but non hadicaps are better i think.
this removes the market from the figures and if you have enough data it gives you a good picture of how good jocks are.
if any of you have good databases you might be able to try this..I used Postmark ratings as they could be queried in RSB
Use any rating system you have on your databse and measure a jockey on how he performs on top rated horses in non handicaps..you could include all races but non hadicaps are better i think.
this removes the market from the figures and if you have enough data it gives you a good picture of how good jocks are.
EC1
On a break
whilst we are on stats..what is the view of this one?
No horse has won the Supreme Novices the year before and gone on to win the Champion Hurdle since 1971
No horse has won the Supreme Novices the year before and gone on to win the Champion Hurdle since 1971
John Whitley of Racing Research publishes an annual assessment of jockeys on the flat based on computer analysis of all performances, effectively measuring how horses perform for different jockeys. Does he do the same for jump jockeys? His flat assessments have always made interesting reading.
G
Gearoid
Guest
The Supreme Novice is a cavalry charge for young 3m chasers not future champion hurdlers.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The exception being if they are placed in it and have the initials B or D.
EC1
On a break
if every SN winner had won the CH the following year since 1971 would you ignore it and back something else?
EC1
On a break
you are saying that Menorah has little chance as he is a 3 mile chaser?
G
Gearoid
Guest
I am saying that is how I interpret the stat.
Last edited:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
What he's saying is you're more likely to get a War of Attrition, a Kicking King or a Best Mate than an Istabraq or a Hardy Eustace. Even when a future Champion Hurdler runs in a Supreme he is outnumbered by future chasers. Tranquil Sea, Deep Purple, Calgary Bay and Kalahari King all ran in Captain Cee Bee's renewal.
EC1
On a break
lets have a look at these 3 mile chasers
2002 Like A Butterfly... won Irish CH after SN win..then lost in CH at 13/2..did make a 3 mile chaser 3 years later
2003 Back In Front .won Bula after SN win....btn 7/2 fav following years CH...did make a 3 mile chaser..3 years later
2004 Brave Inca..won races over 2m later..but beaten at 10/1 in followng years CH..didn't make the 3 mile chaser bit
2005 Arcalis...lost at 9/1 in following year CH..didn't mae a 3 mile chaser 12 years later
2006 Noland..out next season..then did win at 3 miles..3 years later
2007 Ebaziyan...lost at 33/1 in CH..didn't make a 3 mile chaser 10 years
later
2008 Captain Cee Bee ,,didn't run in CH..hasn't made a 3 mile chaser yet..maybe thats the key to him
2009 Go Native..beaten 11/4 fav in following years CH..due to make a 3 mile chaser in 2015
quite a few fancied CH runners there..2 fav's for a start..and i only looked at 10 years
sorry..had a bit of fun there..but i'm not seeing the 3 mile chaser bit
2002 Like A Butterfly... won Irish CH after SN win..then lost in CH at 13/2..did make a 3 mile chaser 3 years later
2003 Back In Front .won Bula after SN win....btn 7/2 fav following years CH...did make a 3 mile chaser..3 years later
2004 Brave Inca..won races over 2m later..but beaten at 10/1 in followng years CH..didn't make the 3 mile chaser bit
2005 Arcalis...lost at 9/1 in following year CH..didn't mae a 3 mile chaser 12 years later
2006 Noland..out next season..then did win at 3 miles..3 years later
2007 Ebaziyan...lost at 33/1 in CH..didn't make a 3 mile chaser 10 years
later
2008 Captain Cee Bee ,,didn't run in CH..hasn't made a 3 mile chaser yet..maybe thats the key to him
2009 Go Native..beaten 11/4 fav in following years CH..due to make a 3 mile chaser in 2015
quite a few fancied CH runners there..2 fav's for a start..and i only looked at 10 years
sorry..had a bit of fun there..but i'm not seeing the 3 mile chaser bit
Last edited:
EC1
On a break
i'm talking about the winner ..not the also rans
EC1
On a break
no..you both lost me here..the stat points to Menorah being unlikely to win the CH..as he would be breaking a 40 year trend
40 years..thats a lot i reckon..especially when we have had 2 beaten favs in the last 10 years
i've just noticed..it gets dark at night
40 years..thats a lot i reckon..especially when we have had 2 beaten favs in the last 10 years
i've just noticed..it gets dark at night
EC1
On a break
best to make sure you read the stat properly and digest ..before hitting the keys Euro
EC1
On a break
i'd just like to say..this is the finest CH thread I've read..so much better than on other forums