Road To The Champion Hurdle

The fact that three future Champion Hurdlers have won or finished second in the Supreme since 1999 makes this an irrelevant stat. Almost as bad as the one Nick Mordin always trotted out about horses who ran in the Guineas not being able to win the Derby.
 
The winner of the last 12 Champion Hurdles had previously won at the festival so HF is against the stats too.
 
Euronymous said:
The fact that three future Champion Hurdlers have won or finished second in the Supreme since 1999 makes this an irrelevant stat. Almost as bad as the one Nick Mordin always trotted out about horses who ran in the Guineas not being able to win the Derby.
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they didn't win the following year though..the relevance of which you might be missing

i can't remotely see any connection between this and the NM one..i'm sure there is one but i'm not seeing it..is it a stat linked trickie job thing?:)

that stat could also be a blow for my bet on OW..as it seems you do end up lacking the 2 mile pace ..and then that chasing thing kicks in;)

stats..some do have relevance imo..obviously they are easy to ignore..but are they profitable to ignore..thats the thing isn't it

if I were fancying Menorah..i'd be a bit concerned tbh
 
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Gearoid said:
The winner of the last 12 Champion Hurdles had previously won at the festival so HF is against the stats too.
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not as good as a 40 year one:p

you mean HF might not win?..oh shit..this thread will be like a pindrop area if that happens;)

i'll tell you something..i am really looking forward more than ever to this race..even though it might mean i'll have to hibernate afterwards:lol:
 
EC1 said:
they didn't win the following year though..the relevance of which you might be missing
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It would only be relevant if they'd run relatively poorly in the CH following their Supreme. But Hors La Loi was second to a legend and Brave Inca was beaten less than a length.
 
Euronymous said:
It would only be relevant if they'd run relatively poorly in the CH following their Supreme. But Hors La Loi was second to a legend and Brave Inca was beaten less than a length.
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a lot of them did run poorly though..what do you want..every one to finish last or summat?:)

you must admit..40 years is pretty keen

Fighting Fifth has only another 19 years to go and it will be right up there as the 2nd best graveyard for potential CH winners;)
 
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lets get this thread back on track anyway..no need for all this stats and analysis nonsense


I'll tell you what..that HF is a classy horse...that Binocluar is a bit classy an all
 
Didnt Punjabi win the Fighting Fifth and the champion Hurdle in the same season?


about the statistic of Hurricane
he has not won in the Festival because he hasnt run there in the last 2 years,
 
EC1 said:
no..you both lost me here..the stat points to Menorah being unlikely to win the CH..as he would be breaking a 40 year trend

40 years..thats a lot i reckon..especially when we have had 2 beaten favs in the last 10 years


i've just noticed..it gets dark at night;)
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I think it was a longer one that no beaten horse in the Dane wins the Derby and that trend was broken last year by Abdullahs horse.
 
A friend of mine is painting himself onto Pedlars Cross. The last time he did this was Nick Dundee who fell when travelling like a winner. He turned green in front of me and I didn't see him for two months :(
 
sunybay said:
Didnt Punjabi win the Fighting Fifth and the champion Hurdle in the same season?


about the statistic of Hurricane
he has not won in the Festival because he hasnt run there in the last 2 years,
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we had this before I think Suny..Punjabi won FF AFTER the CH..now thats entirely different thing:)

ah the HF one..he hasn't run..so may just lack that track craft needed you see:)

at end of day..some of this stats stuff is coincidence and nonesense of course it is..but some of it is based on good reasoning.

the SN to CH one for me is about experience..to win a CH you have to be a very experienced hurdler..or a one off like your Alderbrooks that just take to the game and have natural ability..there isn't many Alderbrooks so normally we are looking at a solid hurdler with plenty of experience

as good as Menorah is..is he the finished article?..what will happen when he isn't hammering lessers?..when a couple range up alongside him and put him to the test over the last couple of hurdles

I was never sure about the Dante thing tbh..its a coincidence thing for me ..whereas this isn't..this does have some logic behind it

As Gearoid said..a lot of the also rans at the 2 mile Novice stage aren't hardened 2 mile hurdlers..so you get a horse that is up against these types for a season then he leaves that division behind and starts meeting hardened older 2 mile hurdlers instead of potential chasing stayer types

its at that point I think the novice needs a few more races at that level to become hardened enough for a CH

if i had Menorah and wanted this CH I would have give him another run..maybe two.. in competetive races..he is pretty lightly raced imo for a horse thats basically just out of nursery in hurdling terms
 
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sunybay said:
Didnt Punjabi win the Fighting Fifth and the champion Hurdle in the same season?


about the statistic of Hurricane
he has not won in the Festival because he hasnt run there in the last 2 years,
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The last ten individual winners previously RAN at the festival.
 
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Sheikh said:
A friend of mine is painting himself onto Pedlars Cross. The last time he did this was Nick Dundee who fell when travelling like a winner. He turned green in front of me and I didn't see him for two months :(
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I too will vanish should he not run his race - remember that Nick Dundee incident only too well! He would have sluiced up....
 
A horse able to win again after 21 months off the track and who spent 11 weeks in Lambourn recovering from his serious injuries after his Cheltenham fall might not have been lacking in the bravery department.
 
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