I was just thinking about Binocular lying in bed last night actually. It's amazing how much - and perhaps more pertinently, for how long - his Supreme run coloured my view of him; up until his run in last year's Champion I had him down as a 'speed' horse, despite all of the evidence since that Supreme pointing firmly to the contrary - that is, to a horse that relishes every yard of a stiff two miles.
Last year's Champion still sets the standard in form terms as far as I am concerned. As much as he rates an unreliable 'marker' horse, those dismissing last year's renewal on the basis of the proximity of Zaynar (no names mentioned, though my mouse is hovering over you, Grasshopper...
) are towing a fairly dangerous line in my book. The strength of that form, as well as the fact nothing he has done this year points to him being unable to reproduce that form, makes Binocular a worthy favourite in my book.
I haven't a clue what to make of Hurricane Fly or Peddlers Cross if I'm honest. I think Solwhit is a better horse than Hamm believes (and I would tend to agree with Grasshopper that Hurricane Fly has won with a bit up his sleeve), though I have found the riding tactics aboard the Byrnes horse slightly bizarre this year given his proven stamina and the fact that he ran Hurricane Fly to a head last year at Punchestown given a more positive ride.
The McCain horse remains all potential. My initial reaction to his Fighting Fifth victory was that he had put up a serious performance to beat Starluck in a relatively steadily run race that should have suited the Fleming horse. On watching it again tonight, he has arguably been better positioned than Starluck given the way the race was run and I am just slightly hesitant to extrapolate potential improvement from a steadily run race.
Menorah is one I am against. The notion that he 'needs' a strong pace is something of a red herring for me; whilst he may well improve for a genuine pace I would be of the opinion that others will improve - or prove better suited by it - significantly than him*. A beating of two horses who were far more inconvenienced by the steady pace of the Bula than he is far from rock solid form. I totally accept that he may have strengthened since last year's Supreme, but I am actually unconvinced that Menorah will last up the hill off a searching pace.
Oscar Whisky is yet another with bags of potential, though his beating of stayers** in a steadily run affair at Cheltenham is relatively unconvincing form given some of the other form on offer. For all that I'm a big Dunguib fan, I'm not entirely convinced he's a huge fan of jumping hurdles at pace. If this race was over 2m on the flat at Newmarket I would make him second favourite and I can't deny I've had a score at 20's just in case I'm wrong.
In summary, I haven't a fucking clue. Binocular rates the most likely winner, and Menorah is too short in the market. Roll on Tuesday...
*I thought it was potentially interesting that Hobbs said after the Bula that he was surprised how well the horse had handled a steady pace given he had previously considered him more of a stayer.
**FWIW, I thought Celestial Halo looked far too free off the relatively steady gallop that day and as a result didn't quite get home.