Road to the Gold Cup 2011

Bar the Bull said:
Can anybody more knowledgeable than me interpret Punchestown's run?
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Looked like Geraghty had given up to me then Pasco began to tire and Punchestowns stamina kicked in. Personally the horse looks a shadow of himself to me. they might be better reverting back to hurdles or giving him a rest until next season.
 
I didn't think he jumped all that well either , he stepped at the third last and was pretty close to a few- the horse seems to have lost his pace over fences- he was a superb traveller over hurdles .

Pasco reported to have choked coming into the straight and is to have a wind op - had he not then it seems likely Punchestowns would have been soundly beaten .
 
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I’ve come to the regrettable conclusion that Punchestowns is not very adaptable and worryingly one-paced. I can’t see him making an impact as a chaser. Whether he should revert to hurdling I don’t know, but he clearly was right at the top of the tree as a staying hurdler while he’s as flat as a pancake doing what he does now.
 
I rarely call horses right, but I think I can add Punchestowns to the only other example (Black Jack Ketchum) of horses that never fooled the Bull.

Having said the above, he ran the complete opposite race to what I expected. I thought he might have been cruising to the last, finding little off the bridle.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I rarely call horses right, but I think I can add Punchestowns to the only other example (Black Jack Ketchum) of horses that never fooled the Bull.

Having said the above, he ran the complete opposite race to what I expected. I thought he might have been cruising to the last, finding little off the bridle.
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Punchestowns just keeps plodding at an even pace it seems to me. His style was effective as a staying hurdler though. A bit of a puzzle.

BJK was a different kettle of fish altogether. A horse with an array of gears that went physically wrong.
 
Ardross said:
Pasco reported to have choked coming into the straight and is to have a wind op - had he not then it seems likely Punchestowns would have been soundly beaten .
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Pasco looked like he had been shot on the run in I'd agree. This was an awful race that no one deserved to win.
 
Mill House of course ran in 5 Gold Cups between 1963-68, finishing: 122FF

Pas Seul may also have run in 5, but I'm not sure if he competed the year Mill House won. He fell (would have won) in 1959, won in 1960, finished second in 1961, was allegedly doped when running poorly the following year and made up the numbers behind Arkle and Mill House in 1964. He was 8/15 morning favourite to beat Mandarin et al in the infamous 1962 race, but drifted to 9/4 against on the off. You don't see that in many Gold Cups, do you?
 
SteveM said:
Pasco looked like he had been shot on the run in I'd agree. This was an awful race that no one deserved to win.
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Exactly - if I was senior steward I'd have voided it between the last 2! God knows what happened to Crack Away Jack, who stopped as if shot. In fact the entire field looked that they'd either been shot or wanted shooting at one stage or another.
 
Good win by Riverside Theatre today. Supports the 'theory' that the KG was decent enough form and a pointer to Long Run's ability.
 
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SteveM said:
Good win by Riverside Theatre today. Supports the 'theory' that the KG was decent enough form and a pointer to Long Run's ability.
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Are you not supposed to be working on the telly??:whistle: I would have to admit he did it pretty well while still looking that he needed further. Gauvain ran an excellent race over probably too short a trip - POD seemed to be going very well before his disaster.

I may have completely underestimated LR but I am grasping onto the belief that he is a Kempton horse as Celestial Halo is a Wincanton horse:p
 
PN betfair blog

Before the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival begins in earnest, I thought I would update you on the fact that Denman had a soft palate operation after his third in the Hennessy.
Obviously, there was no disgrace in finishing just over 15 lengths third to Diamond Harry at Newbury, giving that very talented rival 26lb.
In fact, Denman got the biggest applause in the paddock after the race, after going head-to-head with the winner for so long, before the weight finally told.
It was a tremendously brave and pleasing performance, and probably not one that far off his 2008/09 best.
So why did we see fit to give him the operation?
Well, in last year's Gold Cup and the Hennessy I didn't think he was finishing the races as well as he could.
Before Denman first ran in Ireland, he had a hobday operation but he didn't have his soft palate cauterised.
So we had that done a week after the Hennessy, and I just hope that it will improve him slightly and allow him to finish off his races a little better.
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SteveM said:
Good win by Riverside Theatre today. Supports the 'theory' that the KG was decent enough form and a pointer to Long Run's ability.
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I am not sure you can take too much out of it . RT was professional and smart but that was all. It was a very weak renewal of the race yesterday and P of D looked to be going best of all when he met his fatal accident albeit too far out to judge accurately.
 
I thought he looked a good winner

I have to look at Gauvains efforts when racing at 2m4+ though which suggest he is below his best at those distances..if he is a 159 horse at best..his past form suggests he runs 10+lbs below his best at these trips

so RT didn't have to extend himself to beat what is in effect a 150 or worse horse at that trip
 
EC1 said:
I thought he looked a good winner

I have to look at Gauvains efforts when racing at 2m4+ though which suggest he is below his best at those distances..if he is a 159 horse at best..his past form suggests he runs 10+lbs below his best at these trips

so RT didn't have to extend himself to beat what is in effect a 150 or worse horse at that trip
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Gauvain did seem to wilt pretty quickly off the turn rather than RT picking up.
 
EC1 said:
I thought he looked a good winner

I have to look at Gauvains efforts when racing at 2m4+ though which suggest he is below his best at those distances..if he is a 159 horse at best..his past form suggests he runs 10+lbs below his best at these trips

so RT didn't have to extend himself to beat what is in effect a 150 or worse horse at that trip
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I was also impressed with RT - he is far from the softie I portrayed him to be before the King George.......not that this was a field of world-beaters. :whistle:
 
I will be having a decent bet on Long Run in the next week at 13/2 - very hard to see him out of the first 3. The gold cup is nearly always won by an improver(he is the only one in this category, along with Diamond Harry) and people are being put off by the theory he doesn't act round Cheltenham.
 
Long Run's Cheltenham form is just nowhere near GC class - it is an enormous leap of faith to expect him to improve enough to win a GC.
 
The thing is though, Long Run's course form isn't all that far behind Burton Port's, whose form isn't a million miles behind Diamond Harry's, whose Cheltenham form is worse than Long Run's!

The key to this race, imo, is how far Imperial Commander has regressed, if at all. I have to consider both Kauto and Denman to be below the height of their previous powers, and figure IC will have to have regressed a fairly long way, before any of the 'improvers' will trouble him.

If the likes of Long Run and Diamond Harry progress again to the tune of a 5lbs, Imperial Commander probably has to regress by 5lbs himself, before either of them can get him into trouble. And Cheltenham is a track where Imperial Commander routinely runs up to the best of his form.

Everything still points to the jolly, as far as I'm concerned.
 
Ardross said:
Long Run's Cheltenham form is just nowhere near GC class - it is an enormous leap of faith to expect him to improve enough to win a GC.
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That is a lazy viewpoint, IMHO. He is just a better horse now, and jumped better lto than his previous Feltham run at Kempton, giving every reason to believe he will leave his previous course form behind. And, as GH points out, this is quite good in itself. Plus, at his age, he is still open to considerable improvement.
 
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