Road to the Gold Cup 2020

I’m fairly underwhelmed from what I’ve seen so far, Clan Des Obeaux aside - who doesn’t seem the same horse at Cheltenham - and while Al Boum Photo may change that and Kemboy and Presenting Percy are entitled to improve considerably come March, I’ve decided to go for a complete wild arra.

Beware the Bear won the opening day handicap off a mark of 151 in March and put in a decent effort when not beaten far off 158 in the Ladbroke trophy on his return. The ground would have been against him that day - all worst efforts have come with Gd in the description - and he’s a decent record here, which would arguably be better had things gone differently in his first two festival runs.

He’s rated 162 now, which leaves him with roughly 10-12lb to find but if it was to turn up soft on the day he’s got the scope, despite turning 10 tomorrow, to outperform his previous ratings. Runs like his Bet365 effort mean he’s always going to come with risks attached but from 162 he’s pretty much ruled himself out of any of the other festival races and while I’ve no doubt the National is his ultimate aim - declared to run in the handicap hurdle here tomorrow, presumably to protect his chase rating - he’s run at the last three festivals so if connections want him to make it four this must surely be the race, when the National weights will have already been published.

His current rating isn’t far off the last two winners going into the race and at 164/1 on the exchange I’ve had a speculative punt.
 
Last edited:
You can do anything with stats.

The Savills Chase is marked as a Gold Cup trial but no Irish trained horse has ever won it (or its equivalent) and gone on to win the Gold Cup in the same season.

Delta Work has either won a key race or totally ruled himself out for March.
 
I agree with you G-G, CDO doesn't get 3+ miles around Cheltenham in my opinion, and I think connections know that.

I'm a Kemboy fan and I was happy with his re-appearance at the weekend. Will also be interesting to see how Al Boum Photo gets on today.

I do have my worries about Delta Work's jumping in a top flight race such as a Gold Cup.
 
After the Christmas races, new ORs:

177 Kemboy (no change)
173 Lostintranslation (no change)
173 Clan Des Obeaux (+4)
169 Delta Work (+6)
168 Monalee (+5)
167 Road To Respect (-2)
167 Presenting Percy (-2)
164 Elegant Escape (no change)
 
Just caught up with the race replay. Willie Mullins must be very pleased with that, Al Boum Photo looked full of beans for most of the race, and won that tidily giving weight away all round. Pleasing performance, wouldn't back against him retaining his crown come March.
 
I think at this stage ABP warrants likely favouritism but I wouldn't be going overboard about giving weight to a ropey handicapper and a mare that's obviously pretty gone at the game.
 
I’m surprised there are seven horses quoted at less than half the odds of Native River.

The 2018 winner may be a 10yr old now but he’s hardly done anything wrong and with the lighter campaign and the possibility of ground riding slower than it was last March, he could quite conceivably make up the 9 lengths he was beaten.

20/1 (23 on the Exchange) is a bit of an insult IMO and was as big as 25s until recently.
 
Euronymous said:
I think at this stage ABP warrants likely favouritism but I wouldn't be going overboard about giving weight to a ropey handicapper and a mare that's obviously pretty gone at the game.
Click to expand...

I wouldnt either but have to like how he moved, jumped and travelled

Given that nothing else has really stood out, he just had to show up and win really
 
There are certain horses that I can't stop thinking of as bad jumpers, and ABP is one of them. Mind you, a couple of others in recent years have been Kauto Star and Don't Push It which goes to show how much I know.
 
granger said:
I wouldnt either but have to like how he moved, jumped and travelled

Given that nothing else has really stood out, he just had to show up and win really
Click to expand...

No, nothing has really stood out - but lets look at the last 10 Gold Cup winners and their profiles at the turn of the year

2019 - ABP had one win in open company
2018 - Native River did come across as the biggest danger to Might Bite but had been beat in race the previous year.
2017 - Sizing John looked Ryanair bound
2016 - Don Cossack had just fallen in the KG and had also come down in the previous year's Ryanair
2015 - Coneygree had won the Feltham but did not look a possible GC contender
2014 - Lord Windermere - Form not much to write home about. Very lucky RSA winner, outsider.
2013 - Bob's Worth did look the most likely at this stage
2012 - Synchronised was a handicapper
2011 - Long Run was the most likely winner at this stage
2010 - Imperial Commander. It was all about Denman and Kauto really despite IC's credentials

So of the last 10 GC winners you'd only say Long Run and Bob's Worth were in ABP's position as most likely as the year turned.
 
Maybe not now after the injury, but I’m still absolutely adamant they should have give Tiger Roll a spin here before going for a third National.
 
Back
Top