Road To The Supreme Novice Hurdle

Claisse calling the ground Soft for Amaretto Rose's Supreme is the greatest piece of legerdemain since David Copperfield walked through the Great Wall of China.*

* He didnae, the stupid-haired twat, but on the plus side, he has seen Claudia Schiffer's pie. :cool:
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Ruby aboard Champagne Fever in the Supreme.
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Lovely to see that Mr Ricci will be able to have a day out at the expense of everyone who has backed the horse ante-post for the Neptune and Albert Bartlett. Succeeded in reducing a multiple grade one winner to a social runner.
 
It confirms what they think of Pont Alexandre plus he's been campaigned over 2-2m4f all season, so given the Ricci's have Ballycasey and they've kept him over shorter all year, why would they run in the 3m?
 
To be fair, if any of us were in the very fortunate position of having three real good novice hurdlers like Ricci does, we would try to have on in each of the novice races too rather than have them running against each other.
 
Aragorn said:
It confirms what they think of Pont Alexandre plus he's been campaigned over 2-2m4f all season, so given the Ricci's have Ballycasey and they've kept him over shorter all year, why would they run in the 3m?

The short answer is because he deserves to have the chance to actually win a race rather than make up the numbers/give the owner a day out. He would be near enough favourite for the Albert Bartlett that should tell you everything you need to know.

The real question should be why sacrifice this horse in favour of one who so far in comparison has achieved next to nothing. Based on achievement Ballycasey is one of the weakest favourites of the whole meeting but following Champagne Fever's setback he has been punted at all rates. Might upset the applecart for someone if his stablemate were to turn up and outlass him.

The style of Champagne Fever's bumper wins should have cried out staying novice for the following season. Having beaten nothing first time out he had the run of the race next time against Jezki but was comprehensively outpaced despite the winner jumping with little fluency. He flopped next time before returning to beat a second division field in no better than workmanlike fashion. His runs have been categorised by a need to make the running, at best an ordinary jumping technique and little change of pace. Everything points to the fact they have been running him over the wrong trip.
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As of 8.30am tomorrow morning (Sat), William Hill will be paying FIVE places on each way bets in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
 
Treetangle, I understand your point but his stamina is not proven and I think they have an eye to the future over fences and are minding him; the Albert Bartlett is a war of attrition he doesn't need. His breeding says he'll probably stay but the Neptune would have been the right race in the circumstances. Unfortunately he is the stablemate of the winner.

For what it's worth I reckon he'll run a big race in the Supreme.
 
it was galileos choice,i was sweet on him for weeks runnin up to the festival,i listened to the race on fivelive while at work and the only time i heard john hunt mention his name was "and robbie mcnamara is playing it very cool at the rear of the field on galileos choice".
 
Aragorn said:
Treetangle, I understand your point but his stamina is not proven and I think they have an eye to the future over fences and are minding him; the Albert Bartlett is a war of attrition he doesn't need. His breeding says he'll probably stay but the Neptune would have been the right race in the circumstances. Unfortunately he is the stablemate of the winner.

For what it's worth I reckon he'll run a big race in the Supreme.
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I think the 'war of attrition' as you put it is exactly what he wants if he is to have any chance of success. He has yet to show that he can overtake a horse at the business end of a race. I suspect the only way they will be 'minding him' is by pulling him up in the Supreme.

I would be more optimistic that you might be right about Pont Alexandre but his price reflects a rather large dose of hype over achievement and given the strength of opposition it is not too difficult to oppose him as well.
 
MTOY is a monkey. I defy anyone to tell me otherwise after looking at his last two bumper starts last year. Doesn't like it put up to him which it undoubtedly will in the supreme. Think Willie will do it, possibly Pique Sous if genuine good ground ala that horse who should have beaten Like A Butterfly! that's my tuppence worth anyway lads....Bon nuit
 
Sherwood saying not on account of any of the opposition but having spoken to Simon Claisse it's unlikely the ground will be any better later in the week so the shorter trip is a no brainer.
 
Been drawn to looking at the 'Supreme' by the Bet Victor offer.

As is my habit, I look for interesting trends, both positive and negative, in the last 10 years winners.

What struck me immediately was my '£25k' rule, only 3 of the 10 winners had won a race to this value or more, I would have expected twice that many - this tells me to look further a field than MTOY or Jezki!

My conclusion is that whilst older than the average 'Novice', in this race its easy to have left their true potential behind in the January and February mud.

GLTA - MR2
 
Puffin Billy could make them go in this and sneak a place or better. He made absolute mincemeat of Up To Something who has done his fair share of winning including beating MTOY in a bumper. He nearly pulled his jockeys arms out of their sockets from the moment the jumped off at Newbury and still found loads in the closing stages to win easily.

He could well have gone here unbeaten but for him going lame in the closing stages of his last race and he'd be less the half the odds he is if not for that.

Simply not prepared to have my lunch money on MTOY at such short odds in the very first race. Seen enough when Dunguib got turned over to convince anyone anything can get beat.

Puffin Billy ew at around 20/1 Plus an additional few quid on the machine with a view to laying him back in running. He travels superbly well and his odds should drop enough to make a big enough profit to cover my ew investment, should he get run out of it in the closing stages, by the big guns.
 
My Tent Or Yours isn't Dunguib! One didn't have the speed for the job, the other one does.
The only forseeable chink in his considerable armour is heavy ground dulling that turn of foot, something you'd bet AP would allow for this time anyway.
 
I think CHELTENIAN is a dark horse, it looks a decent ew bet at 33,s. Won champion bumper 2011. Was off for nearly 2 years and ran a stormer just getting beat minella forefitness, it will surprise a few I reckon. also think MELODIC RENDEZVOUS looks not bad on the prices to. Im hoping MTOY is overated.
 
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