Royal Ascot 2022

Synopses for today (updates in red):

2.30 - Chesham – my plan was to leave this race alone but Cole has one and he only sends his best juvenile to this so I’m on Sunningdale at 80/1.

3.05 I have a very high rating for Noble Truth, much higher than the rest of these, and have gone in very heavily at 9/2. I can’t see past it but have to acknowledge that my figure for him might be wrong.

3.40 Hurricane Lane is a good thing and is a rare odds-on (8/11) bet for me. I fancy the double with Noble Truth too. It pays 15/2 at current best odds.

4.20 This is more like a handicap but I’ve taken 19/2 Creative Force to show that his win in the G1 here last autumn was no flash in the pan. (Added Emaraaty Ana 33/1 today)

5.00 I backed Rohaan (25s) the other day. He’s 3lbs lower than when he won last year and his back form suggests he won’t mind the faster ground. I’m very curious about Ventura Tormenta and why he’s making his reappearance, after two years, in this race, and curious enough to make sure I’m on at 40/1 (7 places). He won the G1 Robert Papin back then and, who knows, might have gone on to become a G1/G2 3yo. I’ll probably spread some cash around all the ones I reckon can hit 125 on the scale so long as they are drawn no higher than 20 and preferably around 10. Fresh was the first one I backed earlier in the week as I anticipated a gamble. (Draw might now favour middle-to-high so I've added Summerghand (20s) Bielsa (28s) and Apollo One (33s).)

5.35 - I had a look through this field and the only ones I can see that might be better handicapped than average are Sun King and Knightswood. I backed Splendent at 20/1 because connections’ only previous runner won it but it might not make the cut. I’d be interested in Bushfire if it got in as well because Hughie Morrison is brilliant at targeting these races and has probably kept the horse away from the track to preserve a good mark. I’ll decide on bets nearer the time. (Splendent didn't make the cut but Bushfire did and I've backed all three of these. I might try the tricast.)

6.10 - I can’t see Trueshan running so will hold off on bets until the market resets. I fancied Nate The Great but wonder why David Probert doesn’t ride. That would leave the way clear for Falcon Eight and Wordsworth to have the finish to themselves. It’s possible that the Ces is the target for Nate. (No further forward with this.)
 
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Slim said:
It's some draining week. It was hard to watch a race at Down Royal this evening after a week of high class racing.

Will Trueshan run? Will be a right betting heat in the last if not.
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No chance for Trueshan on that ground. I'm close by and there was a very short 'spit' of a shower about an hour ago but it's already evaporated. Think it would have to pour down starting now for any chance. :(
 
Is he though? Like, Nature Strip had form in excess of 5f but this falla has never run over further than 6 and the AUS tracks are not as stiff as Ascot. I'm gonna back a few at massive odds on the exchange win only:

A Case of You - quality form last year. Goes on fast ground
Emaraaty Ana - Sprint Cup winner, ignore Meydan he's 16s surely
Minzaal - Ascot form
Diligent Harry - Might get three figures on this one.
 
Euronymous said:
Is he though? Like, Nature Strip had form in excess of 5f but this falla has never run over further than 6 and the AUS tracks are not as stiff as Ascot. I'm gonna back a few at massive odds on the exchange win only:

A Case of You - quality form last year. Goes on fast ground
Emaraaty Ana - Sprint Cup winner, ignore Meydan he's 16s surely
Minzaal - Ascot form
Diligent Harry - Might get three figures on this one.
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I'm going to chance Minzaal small. Today is very much not a betting day.
 
Euronymous said:
Diligent Harry - Might get three figures on this one.
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Ive backed this as well- 66/1 6 Places

Like Gulliver in the Wokingham 22/1 8 places, always runs well in big Handicaps

Surely Stratum is too big at 14s in the last race, Willie always has em spot on for Ascot and he won it last year
 
I swear if you had a fiver EW on every outsider this week you'd be rolling in cash

In the meantime did any catch the tricast in the first race

Tricast:
£66,051.84
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Synopses for today (updates in red):

2.30 - Chesham – my plan was to leave this race alone but Cole has one and he only sends his best juvenile to this so I’m on Sunningdale at 80/1.

3.05 I have a very high rating for Noble Truth, much higher than the rest of these, and have gone in very heavily at 9/2. I can’t see past it but have to acknowledge that my figure for him might be wrong.

3.40 Hurricane Lane is a good thing and is a rare odds-on (8/11) bet for me. I fancy the double with Noble Truth too. It pays 15/2 at current best odds.

4.20 This is more like a handicap but I’ve taken 19/2 Creative Force to show that his win in the G1 here last autumn was no flash in the pan. (Added Emaraaty Ana 33/1 today)

5.00 I backed Rohaan (25s) the other day. He’s 3lbs lower than when he won last year and his back form suggests he won’t mind the faster ground. I’m very curious about Ventura Tormenta and why he’s making his reappearance, after two years, in this race, and curious enough to make sure I’m on at 40/1 (7 places). He won the G1 Robert Papin back then and, who knows, might have gone on to become a G1/G2 3yo. I’ll probably spread some cash around all the ones I reckon can hit 125 on the scale so long as they are drawn no higher than 20 and preferably around 10. Fresh was the first one I backed earlier in the week as I anticipated a gamble. (Draw might now favour middle-to-high so I've added Summerghand (20s) Bielsa (28s) and Apollo One (33s).)

5.35 - I had a look through this field and the only ones I can see that might be better handicapped than average are Sun King and Knightswood. I backed Splendent at 20/1 because connections’ only previous runner won it but it might not make the cut. I’d be interested in Bushfire if it got in as well because Hughie Morrison is brilliant at targeting these races and has probably kept the horse away from the track to preserve a good mark. I’ll decide on bets nearer the time. (Splendent didn't make the cut but Bushfire did and I've backed all three of these. I might try the tricast.)

6.10 - I can’t see Trueshan running so will hold off on bets until the market resets. I fancied Nate The Great but wonder why David Probert doesn’t ride. That would leave the way clear for Falcon Eight and Wordsworth to have the finish to themselves. It’s possible that the Ces is the target for Nate. (No further forward with this.)
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Thanks, DO. I was in two minds about Noble Truth until I read your piece, so doubled up. Thanks again, sir.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Synopses for today (updates in red):
3.05 I have a very high rating for Noble Truth, much higher than the rest of these, and have gone in very heavily at 9/2. I can’t see past it but have to acknowledge that my figure for him might be wrong.

3.40 Hurricane Lane is a good thing and is a rare odds-on (8/11) bet for me. I fancy the double with Noble Truth too. It pays 15/2 at current best odds.
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I now need to think about taking a profit on the double.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Letting it ride. Hope I don't regret it.

Edit
:(

Brilliant ride again by Moore.
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I think you were cheated. Most commentators thought that HL wasn’t fully fit (because he has bigger targets down the line) and “hoped” that his class would see him through. If correct, I don’t think trainers should be allowed to send off horses which aren’t fully fit without announcing the fact beforehand.
 
We can't control what other people do or don't decide to say though..something I am increasingly coming to realise in later life.

Hurricane Lane should have been odds against for sure. The bookies cheated on that score.
 
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I wasn't watching the lead-up. If I'd heard them say that I'd have cashed out.

I don't see that I was cheated, though.

No sooner had they crossed the line than the brother was on the phone to ask me what rating Broome might have run to there. I was able to call up my ratings and it only then did occur to me that I broke a personal rule in backing HL. I've said on here before, horses rated in the 120s rarely run within 5lbs of their peak figure on their seasonal debut. If I'd heeded that I'd have looked elsewhere or in the market without HL. I'm not suggesting for a second I'd have backed Broome but he'd have merited serious consideration if you take HL out of the equation.
 
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barjon said:
I think you were cheated. Most commentators thought that HL wasn’t fully fit (because he has bigger targets down the line) and “hoped” that his class would see him through. If correct, I don’t think trainers should be allowed to send off horses which aren’t fully fit without announcing the fact beforehand.
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Behave -you are talking nonsense.
 
Euronymous said:
Is he though? Like, Nature Strip had form in excess of 5f but this falla has never run over further than 6 and the AUS tracks are not as stiff as Ascot. I'm gonna back a few at massive odds on the exchange win only:

A Case of You - quality form last year. Goes on fast ground
Emaraaty Ana - Sprint Cup winner, ignore Meydan he's 16s surely
Minzaal - Ascot form
Diligent Harry - Might get three figures on this one.
Click to expand...



You were absolutely spot on re the track..he was a fingers crossed passenger accompanying the Aussie Champion but I always thought they were peeing against the wind with him
hence I never put him forward at anytime as a bet
 
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Euronymous said:
Is he though? Like, Nature Strip had form in excess of 5f but this falla has never run over further than 6 and the AUS tracks are not as stiff as Ascot. I'm gonna back a few at massive odds on the exchange win only:

A Case of You - quality form last year. Goes on fast ground
Emaraaty Ana - Sprint Cup winner, ignore Meydan he's 16s surely
Minzaal - Ascot form
Diligent Harry - Might get three figures on this one.
Click to expand...

You had the right idea.

It's always frustrating when you back a big priced horse or a few big prices and another one comes in.
 
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