Royal Ascot

EC1 said:
Rory

i'm listening to you on the radio..you keep saying it was Good to Soft today..the times clearly show it was Good ground on the straight course...they ran 41mph early on in SJP the round course ..so it couldn't really have been good/soft there either
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Hi EC1,

if that's how it came across I apologise - I was actually saying that the official was gd/sft but that it was either riding quicker or that the time was freakish - even compared it with the QEII. I suggested it was no worse than the slow side of good. Plenty of good/fast ground horses acquitting themselves well on the straight track, and I'm happy to call it that way.
 
SlimChance said:
I love the way he quickens over 10f. He has a turn of pace that So You Think doesn't have.

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So You Think has plenty of speed, imo - hard to find any 10f turf race (here or Oz) where he hasn't shown it sometime during the last 2 furlongs.
His problem is lack of stamina, rather than lack of zip, though given the paucity of pace horses tomorrow, it should hardly be a problem.
 
Its ridiculous really - If the Queen Anne and the Coventry had been swapped on the card, Frankel's win would have been given as 12 lengths because of the intervening ground change. If the race was run 5 years ago, it would have been given as 10 lengths.
 
So what was the draw bias like today? I didn't take too much notice having only watched replays quickly this evening.
 
Because of no watering then i can't see any reason for any advantage,looked non today as two high draws won two of the sprints.Theres no reason why the stands side could be slightly advantageous if a few take the risk on quicker ground.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Its ridiculous really - If the Queen Anne and the Coventry had been swapped on the card, Frankel's win would have been given as 12 lengths because of the intervening ground change. If the race was run 5 years ago, it would have been given as 10 lengths.
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That really does seem crazy.

I used to have an A4 card (probably still do up the loft somewhere) with all the distances on all tracks measured to the fraction of a second per length it takes to run each distance (based on a horse weighing 1000lbs and carrying 126lbs). I eventually abandoned it because it was all so close to Raceform's global scales, it was a lot less work just to go with the latter. From memory, I think it ranged from something like 0.015spl at 5f to 0.017 at 2m.
 
One serious bet for me today on Emulous in the Windsor Forest. She has a G1 penalty but so does her main opposition Nahrain and Emulous has a run under her belt and I really feel this mare is a big improver and will be very hard to beat today.

Also going to throw a BF multiple in on the following:

Emulous
Reply/Sentaril/Aljamaaheer
Carlton House/Farrh

Won't pay huge but I think So You Think could be beaten today and think the winner has to come from those three in the Jersey (Which looks a really interesting race).
 
I've backed Carlton House e/w and had a mug e/w Lucky15

Aljamaaheer
Chachamaidee
Carlton House
Belgian Bill
 
Gareth Flynn said:
An explanation of the 147 from Timeform's Simon Rowlands:

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...-rated-horse-in-history-on-147-200612-43.html
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Credible enough justification from Simon given the higher bias that Timeform adopts over ORs. It seems that Frankel must have run to a high rating. It must be up there and according to TF is the best.

It seems in the right ballpark to me. Whether it is truly dispassionate I'll leave for our ratings experts to judge.
 
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Horses I like today are:
2.30 Reply, Red Duke
3.05 Nahrain
3.45 Carlton House, Farhh
4.25 Invisible Man, Man of Action, Captain Bertie
 
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