Royal Ascot

Tout Seul said:
Help please!
I have some strong fancies drawn low in two one mile races tomorrow, many runners. How significant disadvantage is there likely to be tomorrow?
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Low draws didn't seem to do too bad today. I have a low drawn one in the Hunt Cup and have just put part of my stake on the place element.
 
Kingman v Toronado in the Sussex (yet another Dual on the Downs!) - who would you favour? Kingman has electric speed but I fancy the track could find him out - whereas we know Toronado handles it well (and Hughsie reigns supreme at Goodwood IMO)
 
jinnyj said:
Kingman v Toronado in the Sussex (yet another Dual on the Downs!) - who would you favour? Kingman has electric speed but I fancy the track could find him out - whereas we know Toronado handles it well (and Hughsie reigns supreme at Goodwood IMO)
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kingman
 
jinnyj said:
Kingman v Toronado in the Sussex (yet another Dual on the Downs!) - who would you favour? Kingman has electric speed but I fancy the track could find him out - whereas we know Toronado handles it well (and Hughsie reigns supreme at Goodwood IMO)
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Depends how much Toronado comes on from today I suppose . I think he may well handle the track better and I should not be all that surprised to see one or two more Sheikh J runners to make sure they go a good gallop - indeed possibly even send Olympic Glory into battle too.
 
I think Toronado should come on a fair bit - he looked as though he had plenty left to work on. Anyone know what his problems have been? I know he had a breathing problem that they corrected with a spoon bit last season so presume he had a wind op over the winter - was there anything else?
 
EC1 said:
Reet...he has now run in two mile races where the jockey on the leader dictated the pace to suit their own mount..so why have both horses been beaten? .

if Kingman is so vulnerable...then why in this race and the irish guineas did not the leaders make it a harder test?...do you know for sure it was a slow pace today?...do you think even pace races are slow and only pace burn ups are fast?...do you really think a horse that wins like he did today...up that mountain you always refer to at Ascot...is going to lose if they go a bit faster

the guineas is just misleading NOT supporters and putting them away
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Why Hughsie should choose to ride a horse that had taken every stride of a strongly run 1m to assert previously, and p!ss about like he did today, escapes me completely, but there is no doubt at all the early pace was poor (Even mediocre judges were shouting it from the rooftops, though conveniently ignoring the fact when eulogising the winner afterward), and it was obvious after 2f that NOT wouldn't be winning anything.
There's no question Kingman is a very good horse, there's equally no question he lost the only time they went "a bit faster".
 
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Hamm said:
I see why you think it wasn't value but i think sometimes you know one horse is better than the other, irrespective of previous run. Remember the French 1000. Guineas where you backed Beauty Parlour at odds even you thought you were too skinny because you were sure she would win? And that day I was the one holding all the value bets!
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Yes, of course, not done that many times since luckily! We can all pick out bad bets from our past, if you can't then you're only fooling yourself! Acknowledging bad bets is part of developing yourself as a punter and turning you into a winning punter long term. Like when I backed World Domination for the Derby and you backed Sajjhaa for the Oaks.... :whistle:

I do think this scenario was different to Beauty Parlour though, I just couldn't see any resemblance of evidence pre-race which suggested Kingman should be significantly shorter than Night of Thunder on all known form. The subsequent result is irrelevant to this debate really.

Odds on favourites will always be less value due to the margins involved, you're much more likely to find ricks at 10/1+ than at odds on due to the way the market is formed and the money traded, a bit like Apple's share price is a lot less likely to be wrong than some obscure Latvian telcoms company or a Nevada start up for example.
 
Toronado simply to good for that lot.
Sole Power - Does what it says on the tin. Have to love the horse.
The (O'Brien) raider in the last has some boot.

Knew after a furlong the SJP would cause even more discussion. Have to say I thought Kingman was home and hosed very early under that sedate pace. Never going to beat Kingman under those tactics. Very odd tactics I thought. You have Toormore who is a lengthener not a quickener being held on to (keen) under that gallop. He stood no chance. Kingman is a cracking horse with some boot. QE2 on soft ground with a proper gallop may not be so straight forward, or maybe it would. It's one I would still like to see though because today told me nothing I didn't already know.
Glad to see Outstrip run much better as he scoped dirty after Newmarket. War Command ran better aswell, as expected.

I do like Toronado, but trying to give Kingman 8lbs in the Sussex. Kingman all day long for me.
 
Once it became clear that Toormore was not going to make the running then what other choice did hannon and hughes have ? Night of Thunder setting a fast pace would negate his own turn of foot so best hope was to pinch it - didn't work as Kingman is so quick off a sedate pace it could not be pinched .

I agree that if they were to meet again in the QEII with a biggish field and lots of pace N of T would be likely to much closer to Kingman again
 
jinnyj said:
I think Toronado should come on a fair bit - he looked as though he had plenty left to work on. Anyone know what his problems have been? I know he had a breathing problem that they corrected with a spoon bit last season so presume he had a wind op over the winter - was there anything else?
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Definitely a wind op but Hughes referred to a number of problems when interviewed by C4 straight after the race .

I suspect he will come on a bundle and if they make it into a real test at Goodwood it will be interesting .
 
Gamla Stan said:
Yes, of course, not done that many times since luckily! We can all pick out bad bets from our past, if you can't then you're only fooling yourself! Acknowledging bad bets is part of developing yourself as a punter and turning you into a winning punter long term. Like when I backed World Domination for the Derby and you backed Sajjhaa for the Oaks.... :whistle:

I do think this scenario was different to Beauty Parlour though, I just couldn't see any resemblance of evidence pre-race which suggested Kingman should be significantly shorter than Night of Thunder on all known form. The subsequent result is irrelevant to this debate really.

Odds on favourites will always be less value due to the margins involved, you're much more likely to find ricks at 10/1+ than at odds on due to the way the market is formed and the money traded, a bit like Apple's share price is a lot less likely to be wrong than some obscure Latvian telcoms company or a Nevada start up for example.
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Sorry, i've come across wrong - i was trying to say that day was Beauty parlour's and betting against her was only going to mean value losers, and i wished i had done the same bet as you, pre-race. Those days are rare but this was another. He was never going to lose.
 
It's damn shame Starspangledbanner had fertility problems or he'd most likely be leading the freshmen sire list. That honour goes to Showcasing and yesterday their youngsters The Wow Signal (Starspangledbanner) and Cappella Sansevero (Showcasing) filled the first 2 places in the Coventry.

After yesterdays result, today's Queen Mary might see Starspangledbanner top the list or be the nearest challenger to Showcacing albeit for a short time with so many good Showcasing youngsters around.

The likely favourourite is Spanish Pipedream. The only things I know bout him is John Prine wrote and performed the song and the vibes say he's very useful.

What puts me off him is what he's beaten. Both the 2nd and the 4th in his win have been trounced since. I just can't bring myself to be backing him blind with nothing other than his trainer having won this before.

Richard Hannon's Tiggy Wiggy has bundles of speed but was beaten fair and square by Patience Alexander who misses thisand goes for the Albany. Tiggy Wiggy did bound back to beat the Brocklesby winner **** of the North but he finished a county behind the Wow Signal yesterday so beating him doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence.
I think it's a foregone conclusion Tiggy Wiggy will run well but be run out of it in the closing stages.

John Quinn and Frankie team up again this time with Harry Dancer who surprised the yard and hacked up in her only outing at Thirsk. The bookies aren't taking much of a chance with her (as low as (9/1) but it's very much a case of let her run and cross your fingers she's improved bundles because the Thirsk race was a very poor contest. I wish them luck but can't see her being good enough.

Enter Starspangledbanner and his filly Anthem Alexander. She has a similar profile to Harr'y Dancer having beaten very little but te way she did it blew a lot of people away myself included. She didn't quicken when asked she absolutely flew.
She looks like a filly with a big future and one to follow staring today.

How good the yank is who knows but if she is going to beat this filly she better be very special.

I'm convinced she'll go off favouvirite when the Irish start piling in so I've already backed her at rates of 5.4 to 4.9

Anthem Alexander for me.
 
Mukhadram is very good on his day and if anything were to upset Treve today it would be him.

Treve actually looked good value at 8/11 as this looks like a bit of a cakewalk for him.

Main bet is Treve with a back up on Mukhadaramm at 9/4 without Treve

I thought Sky Lantern would start favourite for this? That aside the form the Hannon's are in she is sure to be A1 for this.

Sky Lantern 4/1 is very tempting so I'm taking the chance she can defy her penalty and get off to a good start.

I backed Abseil when he was backed sensless at Epsom. At 5/1 he looks terrible value to win again which is a much better race. You can have a bit better than EVENS by dutching the next 10 in the betting which I would rather do than take a chance on him winning again.

Mark Johnston has the favouirite in the last. If I had to make a choice between backing a Johnston fav, laying a Johnston fav or eating rabbit droppings I'd pick up the nearest spoon and get stuck in :eek:......no bet race for me.

Geed luck all
 
reet hard said:
Very impressive, but he was always going to waltz in on fast ground and off a steady pace.
The fact remains that was beaten the only time he's run 1m at a good clip, and his trainer talking aiming at Deauville and Goodwood hardly dispels the suspicion regarding his lack of stamina.
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What lack of stamina? I think you are very much alone on that line of thinking Reet.

If Richard Hannon thought there was the remotest chance Kingsman wouldn't stay in a stongly run race he would have made sure it was a strongly run race.

Instead Hughsie has controlled a steady pace from the front took a little pull just before the home turn to get those behing packing up and hopefully causing a few of them to break stride.....then 2 furlongs out quicken up and go for home hoping getting first run on Kingman would be enough. Clearly it wasn't and Kingman's powepacked run never even hinted that he couldn't have done the same if they had been running up the Cheltenham Hill.

Soft ground firm ground uphill downhill fast run race slow run race Kingman is clearly a far superior animal.......IMVHO of course
 
Tanlic said:
The likely favourourite is Spanish Pipedream. The only things I know bout him is John Prine wrote and performed the song and the vibes say he's very useful.
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I'm glad someone else has heard of him!

(I sang Sam Stone at a karaoke in Benidorm a few months ago and got a standing ovation when I left the stage. I think the standing ovation was for leaving the stage. :lol:)
 
Tanlic said:
I backed Abseil when he was backed sensless at Epsom. At 5/1 he looks terrible value to win again which is a much better race. You can have a bit better than EVENS by dutching the next 10 in the betting which I would rather do than take a chance on him winning again.
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I agree and I can see punters agreeing too so he might well lengthen. Dutching the next ten in the betting might get you even money but you still couldn't be confident of any of the ten being placed!

It's a phenomenal race. We have the highest rated top weight in the recent history of the race, we have the likes of Short Squeeze, Queensberry Rules and Stirring Ballad trying win on their seasonal debut, we have two Godolphin - they only run Group horses in these races - reps, we have a Stoute hotpot, we have past winners of big handicap winners at this meeting in Belgian Bill, Prince Of Johanne and Field Of Dream, and we might not be close to naming the winner!

I love this race!
 
Abseil (Hunt Cup) has always looked a plot horse, and the stable withdrawing the erstwhile favourite even before he'd picked up the penalty that got him into the race just adds to the confidence. There looked to be a lot more in the tank at Epsom, and this more conventional 1m should enable him to produce it.
Parbold (Jersey) gets the stiff 7f and likely strong pace he needs, and should well outrun his 18/1 price tag.
 
Frankel - I know that but no doubt the decision had been made before the race by Toormore's connections that he would not be sent on .
 
Did anyone get teh 7/4 Coral were offering about Treve? I tried for about 15 minutes and couldn't get on.

OK it was only a score but it would have generated a further £35 towards another bet elsewhere.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I agree and I can see punters agreeing too so he might well lengthen. Dutching the next ten in the betting might get you even money but you still couldn't be confident of any of the ten being placed!

It's a phenomenal race. We have the highest rated top weight in the recent history of the race, we have the likes of Short Squeeze, Queensberry Rules and Stirring Ballad trying win on their seasonal debut, we have two Godolphin - they only run Group horses in these races - reps, we have a Stoute hotpot, we have past winners of big handicap winners at this meeting in Belgian Bill, Prince Of Johanne and Field Of Dream, and we might not be close to naming the winner!

I love this race!
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I don't disagree if Bruce Banner had a bet in the Hunt Cup he'd be 1/25 to turn green

The problem is you have no idea which trainers have specifically targeted the race and really you could just about toss the form book out the window.

I'll be doing my 10 but if earlier results go in my favour I will have a bit on Trumpet Major racing of 106. He won the Craven and the Bet365 Mile of 114.

The fact Hughsie is riding Sea Shanty doesn't put me off as the gelding is owned by the Queen and I suspect he's not regarded as their best chance.

Trumpet Major ran his best race for some time last time out over 9f carrying top weight. That should have put him spot on for this and at 20/1 or better on the machine he's worth a dabble.
 
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