Sussex Stakes

The more I think about it, the more I am swaying towards Rip Van Winkle, and think 7/4 represents a lotof value. Even if you take a negative view of the Eclipse form, this still puts him ahead of both of the other principles. Ghanaati would need to be a 126+ horse to beat him which would make her one of the best fillies of the last 10 years; I'm happy to take the chance this isn't the case. If you consider the highest rating Paco Boy has run to being around 127/128 (being generous perhaps), then he still has a pound or two to find (on his very best form).

O'Brien will set a suitably fast pace for Rip Van Winkle, and the only doubt I have is his possible resolution (doubts sowed by others more than myself!).
 
Beacon Lodge (IRE)
Forgotten Voice (IRE)
Mia's Boy
Paco Boy (IRE)
Lord Shanakill (USA)
Malibu Bay (USA)
Rip Van Winkle (IRE)
Ghanaati (USA)
Lahaleeb (IRE)​

Final declarations above. The Ballydoyle tactics should keep it as simple as possible....one pacemaker setting a good strong pace with RVW in second and then taking it up early enough to ensure he gets the rail to keep him straight. On a track like this I would have serious doubts about him keeping straight even coming just a couple of horses wide. Think the trip is in his favour though the track will test his resolution to the max - cracking race.​
 
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Ladbrokes:

RVW – 11/8
Ghanaati – 9/4
Paco Boy - 4/1
Lord Shanakill - 12/1
Beacon Lodge – 20/1
Lahaleeb – 25/1
Forgotten Voice – 25/1
Mias Boy – 100/1
Malibu Bay – 150/1
 
This race seems tailor made for Paco Boy. He is clearly a G1 miler, and with question marks (to me) about RVW's resolution and ability to drop back effectively to a mile and Ghanaati's form outside her sex and age group, I will be going in hard on Paco.

I agree that RVW is the most likely winner, but I am surprised to see 4/1 on PB.
 
I too think Paco Boy at 4/1 is by far the best best....these look to be his absolute perfect conditions. I think Rip Van Winkle is one of the most talented horses in training and I also think he is a pure miler but the track and attitude makes him a no no for this. Ascot would suit him ideally.
 
Sussex Stakes

Rip Van Winkle 133 (+?) t
Paco Boy 127+
Ghanaati 126+
Lahaleeb 121?
Lord Shanakill 120
Beacon Lodge 117p
Forgotten Voice 116+p
Mia’s Boy 111
Malibu Bay 102+

It looks a straight contest between the top three. If Rip is over his Sandown exertions he should win with plenty to spare despite the drop back in trip. I’m surprised they haven’t put in more than one pacemaker for him, though.

Paco Boy’s best form puts him in with a shout and the course should suit but he isn’t exactly the most consistent of beasts.

Ghanaati has looked pretty bullet proof against her own age and sex so this marks a doubly difficult task. However, she’s so visually impressive, I fancy she can beat Paco Boy for second place and if anything goes wrong with Rip she’s the one to take advantage. I’m never comfortable backing fillies against colts as they are less consistent but this filly has looked a wee bit special.

Lahaleeb put up a fast time early in the season but form lines haven’t backed it up so I’m dubious about her figure.

Forgotten Voice is the dark horse and could sneak into the frame if one or two others fail to run to form.
 
I think we've seen from his excellent efforts in the Guineas when he had an interrupted preparation, the Derby where he was poorly positioned in a slow run race and in the Eclipse where he ran into a superstar that RVW is a talented and versatile animal. I respect the filly but it's a stretch to see her beating a top class colt. I can't have Paco Boy, look what AOB's charge did to Conduit at Sandown. It's gonna take a fantastic older horse to beat the best 3yo's this summer, and he aint it.

Rip Van Winkle stands out like a sore thumb on form and cannot be opposed imo. Giant's Causeway won this after putting in a top class effort in the Eclipse and I expect Rip to do the same.
 
Thanks for those figures DO.

My first thought was surprise that Lord Shanakil is so far off the principles, but that was based on my impression rather than any rating on form.

I'm definitely weighing up a place bet on him.
 
Do you not think that race in soft ground at Doncaster would of toughened him up abit, ok he had 3 runs previous to this race but hadn't really been tested even in the Royal Hunt Cup were he was drawn from stall 1, now a tough race in ground thats going to make the horse work hard will probally take out any buzz in his demeanor and would be a perfect stepping stone to Group level.
 
From Sporting Life:

Johnny Murtagh believes the drop back to a mile will see Rip Van Winkle at his best in the BGC Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday.
The Aidan O'Brien-trained colt was only beaten a length by the dual Classic winner Sea The Stars in the Coral-Eclipse over a mile and a quarter at Sandown earlier this month, with subsequent King George hero Conduit back in third.
The son of Galileo had been fourth to Sea the Stars in the Derby and 2000 Guineas on his two previous starts this season.
"I'm really looking forward to riding the horse again and everyone knows he's one of my favourite horses," said the Irish jockey.
"Obviously there has been a lot of hype about the horse and I think everyone knows the high regard I hold him in and Aidan O'Brien holds him in - hopefully Wednesday will be the day he shows everybody.
"He's a horse with a lot of speed, so the drop to a mile won't be a problem. Maybe we've been running him over the wrong trip.
"It looks a hot race, the Sussex always is. You can see when you look at the race down the years the great horses that have run in it and won it, and tomorrow is no different.
"It's a strong field and whoever wins it will probably be the best miler around.
"My horse is in great form at home and he's a horse who is very solid and consistent in his work.
"I just can't wait - I wouldn't swap him."
 
Took 2.7 on him this morning for £200 with the hope that he shortens dramatically tomorrow. Hoping to have 2/1 in the book before the race.
 
FFS!!!!!

By Tony O'Hehir6.37PM 28 JUL 2009
THE participation of Rip Van Winkle in Wednesday's BGC Sussex Stakes is in doubt after connections discovered a problem with the Galileo colt's hind hoof on Tuesday afternoon.
Aidan O'Brien said on Tuesday evening that the Coral-Eclipse runner-up could still contend Wednesday's showpiece at Glorious Goodwood, but underlined that his participation was in doubt.
He said: "We discovered this afternoon that Rip Van Winkle had a slight problem with a hind hoof. We will check him out in the morning and it’s possible that he will travel to Goodwood and a decision be made after he getsthere.”
On Tuesday evening, the Derby fourth was a best-priced 13-8 favourite to land a first Group 1 victory, with Ghanaati next best at 5-2.
 
That would be crap.

He had a bruised hoof before the Eclipse too, didn't he? I wonder if he's got general foot issues.
 
Im not sure why Paco boy is deemed inconsistent. Dubai and Newmarket were defeats that were pretty excusable.

RVW's form should be rated through STS rather than Conduit. That horse is a good few lbs better over 12 than 10, im sure of that. But i just feel that a mile is a bit sharp for RVW. Breeding suggests so maybe? It just doesnt feel like his sort of race does it?

Certainly cant rule the filly out of this with any confidence. Nothing seen yet to suggest that she isnt pretty special
 
I'll be incredibly be pissed off if Rip comes out as all value on Ghanaati evaporates, as does the match bet with him, in which she was 11/10 which was fantastic.

Also making me kick myself even more as I didn't take 5/2 antepost last week when I was forced to go and see Harry Potter instead...
 
It will be really disappointing for all racing fans if this clash doesn't go ahead. I know that I've been looking forward to this for what seems like weeks.
 
I'm gonna back Lord Shanakill each way if Rip doesn't run. The form of Paco Boy's Queen Anne is rotten and he shouldn't be four times as short a fellow Group 1 winner.
 
RVW is the best thing since sliced bread but keeps getting beat.
Paco Boy is a 7f beast who can sneak the odd soft G1 over a mile
Ghannati has yet to beat her own age and sex (some of which looks crap).

Whichever beats the others will get a rating like Brigadier Gerard but for me will mean nothing more than a great price to oppose it next time.

I don't want to be all negative about this race though, so I'll back my opinion and take Lord Shanakill win and place.
 
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