The 2015 2-y-o thread.

Not much to say about yesterday mentions, the Kelleway horse in the first at Sandown managed second place but the two Stoute animals were the last two home in their race. I see the Racing Post comment for both horses was "better for race"......hmmmm! Stoute has had 132 first time out 2-y-os since the start of 2013, just 10 of them have won.

The 3.30 at Leopardstown is a nice race and there are two AP O'Brien runners in there that are nicely bred:

COOLMORE - beaten a length when third to Lanzana at the Curragh on debut last month, is a full-sister to Gleneagles and Marvellous.

SEVENTH HEAVEN - is a Galileo half-sister to Crusade (winner of the 2011 Middle Park) and Cristoforo Columbo (third to Dawn Approach in the 2012 Coventry).
 
Just a quick post of today's results.

Only 1 winner for the top5-FSS by Zoffany's Stamp Hill who won at 11/8f beating the 2nd favourite by a nose.

This gives Zoffany a 28-25 lead over Canford Cliffs and it's all smiles with BennyB.
 
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Starspangled said:
Just a quick update to say that Galileo has closed the gap today, and there is only 10K or so between them now.
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Thanks Starspangled. I was hoping for this as I took the 11/4 for Galileo yesterday and today - the odds were far better than should have been. Tomorrow the gap will widen again to about 150.000 or so - all well though.

It's a wide open contest now, so I'm happy about my 11/4.
 
No winner today for the top5-FSS - back to the normal preview listing tomorrow morning.
 
I share the view of some in other threads of this forum - some great days of racing in the UK, Ireland and France these last few days.

I'm looking forward to all the autumn highlights still to come!


Quite a few good 2-y-o races and their runners though not a lot happening with the 2-y-o top5-FSS stats.

As posted before Zoffany had a winner on Saturday giving him a 28-25 lead over Canford Cliffs. Other FSS with a winner since Friday were Elusive Pimpernel and Roderic O'Connor who managed a win each.


There are 5 2-y-o races today - Brighton (1), Wolverhampton (2) and Listowel (2) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Brighton
2.00 Lilbourne Lad Lilly Bonbon 13/2

Wolverhampton
2.40 Canford Cliffs Just Fab 22/1, Lilbourne Lad Lily Ash 33/1

Listowel
2.35 Zoffany Gainmill Girl 11/1
4.05 Lilbourne Lad Clon Rocket 10/1


I don't think there'll be a lot of success for the top5-FSS today, probaby none at all.

Enjoy!
 
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Today's Listowel card abandoned due to waterlogged track, so scratch the bottom 2 FSS races from the listing above.
 
Danoli said:
Thanks Starspangled. I was hoping for this as I took the 11/4 for Galileo yesterday and today - the odds were far better than should have been. Tomorrow the gap will widen again to about 150.000 or so - all well though.

It's a wide open contest now, so I'm happy about my 11/4.
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Holy christ - I've always said the rabbits have no clue about breeding related odds. Even on Saturday evening, when Galileo was virtually level and had a good Sunday in prospect, they still offered Galileo at 11/4 and Dubawi at 1/4 to become Champion sire in Europe end of this year by prizemoney. Sunday morning they slowly - very slowly - began to realize they got it all wrong and cut the odds to 5/2, 7/4, 6/4, 11/8 and finally 6/5.

Odds of 6/4 were still available at a time when Galileo was 350.000 in front late Sunday evening. Only afterwards he came in to 11/8 and 6/5. Then later in the day they closed the market to re-assess the odds and this led to the latest market now where Galileo is 4/11 and Dubawi out to 3/1. Obviously it's not quite over yet but Dubawi really needs an Arc winner now as else Galileo should hold him at distance. Easy for me to cover against this with two win bets on New Bay and Postponed.

The rabbits have no clue what they are doing but I love that RaceBets is around :D
 
Congratulations, Danoli! I think you've got a win/win situation there thanks to Galileo's offspring this past weekend.

But re 2 year olds: will be really exciting to see the Air Force Blue/Emotionless clash in the Dewhurst if it comes off. I guess Shalaa might stick to 6f this year, but who knows? Would be a great Dewhurst if he joined in too!
 
No top5-FSS winners yesterday.

There are 8 2-y-o races today - Carlisle 1, Catterick (3), Chepstow (2) and Yarmouth (2) - today's top5-FSS runners are:

Catterick
3.00 Poet's Voice Ae Fananah 5/1

Chepstow
2.10 Lilbourne Lad Donttouchthechips 66/1

Yarmouth
2.50 Dream Ahead Edification 13/2

Enjoy!
 
Article below is from the Aidan O'Brien fansite - link would go to the whole, large page so I just copied this particular article in here.

Not sure whether the advantage stated is correct - may be I mis-calculated the winnings last weekend or may be there are some prizes still missing. Then again, after Galileo made up a million in a matter of a week, who cares about 100.000 up or down :D


Galileo regains lead in sires' championship


BY ZOE VICARAGE12:22PM 14 SEP 2015


After an outstanding weekend of results, Galileo has regained the lead in the European sires' championship by prize-money, with progeny earnings of £5,540,885.

Long-time leader Dubawi sits second with a total of £5,297,893 and RaceBets have shortened Galileo to long odds-on to come out on top.

His other winners included Minding, who led home a one-two-three for the sire in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, and Bondi Beach, who was awarded the St Leger in the stewards' room.Coolmore resident Galileo - who has topped the table of European sires by prize-money for the last five years - was represented by his 50th individual top-level winner at the weekend when Order Of St George landed the Irish St Leger.

Galileo might have opened an even bigger advantage over Dubawi at the weekend, but for Darley's flagship sire supplying Prix Niel winner New Bay and Prix Foy scorer Postponed.

The title could go down to the wire and be decided on the outcome of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, worth more than £2 million to the winner. Galileo currently has two entries for the race while Dubawi has four.

RaceBets' Joseph Burke said: "On a very busy weekend for racing in Europe, we missed the fact that punters had been backing Galileo in the Champion Sire market consistently from 11-4 as recently as Friday down to 9-4, then 7-4 and finally into 5-4 before we finally suspended the betting on Sunday.

"Now that the dust has settled, we note there has been a seismic shift in the standings following the weekend.

"In little over three weeks since we opened the book on the leading sire in Europe, Galileo has overturned a huge £1 million-plus deficit with Dubawi to surge into a lead of £242,992.

"Consequently Galileo's odds have been completely reversed from 11-4 against to odds-on at 4-11 to retain his title.

"With a number of exciting two-year-olds to run for him, not least some or all of his Moyglare Stud Stakes one-two-three in the Prix Marcel Boussac, Galileo appears to be in the driving seat once again and as we approach the business end of the season, it's a case of 'business as usual' for the champ.
 
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Not a very exciting day's racing but the front two in the market of the Carlisle 4.15 are worth a mention.

NINETTA (4/7) is by New Approach and is a half-sister to Pouvoir Absolut the winner of a Listed event over 12f. on heavy ground at Longchamp and a close-up but unlucky fifth in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud over 12f. on soft. Ninetta has had a run, a promising second over 7.5f. at Beverley at the end of last month.

FORGIVING FLOWER (4/1), a newcomer, is also by New Approach and is a half-sister to Live Concert a smart Group 1 winner in Japan.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Not a very exciting day's racing but the front two in the market of the Carlisle 4.15 are worth a mention.

NINETTA (4/7) is by New Approach and is a half-sister to Pouvoir Absolut the winner of a Listed event over 12f. on heavy ground at Longchamp and a close-up but unlucky fifth in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud over 12f. on soft. Ninetta has had a run, a promising second over 7.5f. at Beverley at the end of last month.

FORGIVING FLOWER (4/1), a newcomer, is also by New Approach and is a half-sister to Live Concert a smart Group 1 winner in Japan.
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I'd fancy Ninetta, the odds are quite poor though. The other New Approach is a FTO for Burke and the 2 horses with experience both showed improved form 2nd time out (84 and 63).

So, may be the race is hotter than it looks on paper, I'd still stick with Ninetta after her good debut in front of the odds-on favourite. Not sure whether that favourite's form is shaky and perhaps it should make me think that this Godolphin/Appleby 2-y-o filly is 4 races without winning and was beaten as odds-on favourite in her last 2 starts.
 
No top5-FSS winners yesterday.

There are 9 2-y-o races today - Beverley (5), Listowel (1), Sandown (2) and Yarmouth (1) - today's top5-FSS runners are:

Beverley
2.35 Zoffany Wowcha 6/1, Poet's Voice Alzebarh 33/1
3.10 Lilbourne Lad Onefourseven 100/1
3.40 Lilbourne Lad Rainbow Lad 16/1

Listowel
2.10 Lilbourne Lad Boxer Dunford 15/2

Sandown
2.15 Lilbourne Lad Taskeen 11/1
2.50 Zoffany Essenaitch 11/1

Yarmouth
1.55 Lilbourne Lad Tears In My Eyes 28/1 & Cadland Lad 125/1

Plenty of Lilbourne Lad's today - hardly a good chance for FSS's, best chance may come via the FTO's from Zoffany (Wowcha/Quinn) and from Lilbourne Lad (Boxer Dunford/Murtagh).

Enjoy!
 
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Found a few worth mentioning.

Beverley 2.35

PELOPONNESE (4/1) a Montjeu half-sister to Unnefer -RPR 114- the winner of a good Conditions race at Lingfield (turf) over 10f. She was slowly away on her debut 7th.(20/1) at Newmarket in a race won by her stable companion Diploma. Stoute's record with 2-y-os on this course is four wins from five runs.
ALL THE RAGE (40/1) a Dubawi half-sister to Michaelangelo who was third to Encke and Camelot in the 2012 St. Leger. She was a well-beaten 10th. of 11 on debut at Salisbury.

Beverley 5.20

SANAADH (9/4), a newcomer, is a half-brother to Lady Of The Desert the winner of the Loather Stakes in 2009 and the Diadem the following year.

Listowel 2.10

PINWOOD (12/1) is a Bushranger newcomer who is a gelded half-brother to Waady who won the Group 3 Coral Charge in July. The ground today is an obvious question mark.

Sandown 2.15

SOUTHFIELDS (3/1) is a New Approach debutantand a half-brother to Cosmo Phantom -RPR 118- a very smart 10f. horse in Japan.
TIERCEL (3/1) is well enough bred but the yard's first time out 2-y-o record, since the beginning of 2013, is 8 from 109.

Yarmouth 1.55

CRAZY HORSE (10/1) is a newcomer by Sleeping Indian and is a half-brother to Richard Pankhurst the winner of the 2014 Listed Chesham at Royal Ascot. He will have to be a bit special to beat 1/3 shot Massaat.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Found a few worth mentioning.

Beverley 2.35

PELOPONNESE (4/1) a Montjeu half-sister to Unnefer -RPR 114- the winner of a good Conditions race at Lingfield (turf) over 10f. She was slowly away on her debut 7th.(20/1) at Newmarket in a race won by her stable companion Diploma. Stoute's record with 2-y-os on this course is four wins from five runs.
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Sounds good to me and at 7/2 she is a lot more fancied today than for her 20/1 debut. With the expected improvement and Stoute's good record it should make her the leading contender and thus at 7/2 is a good e/w bet
 
Danoli said:
No top5-FSS winners yesterday.

There are 9 2-y-o races today - Beverley (5), Listowel (1), Sandown (2) and Yarmouth (1) - today's top5-FSS runners are:
Sandown
2.15 Lilbourne Lad Taskeen 11/1
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Good profit for the ones who kept faith in Lilbourne Lad's Taskeen - I did not. The Hannon runner was trading at 11/1 this morning only to fall constantly up to the off at 9/2.

Under Dane O'Neill the filly won it by a nose from 6/1 Yensir with the 3/1 favourite Tiercel a further 1/2 length back in third.

Lilbourne Lad up to 13 wins now - still 2 wins behind 3rd placed Dream Ahead and 1 win behind 4th placed Poet's Voice.

All 3 far behind the two fighting it out at the top with Zoffany on 28 and Canford Cliffs on 25 wins.
 
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No top5-FSS winners yesterday - a well-backed winner for Lilbourne Lad as in my previous post.

After Yarmouth having been abandoned there are 3 remaining 2-y-o races today - Ayr (1), Chelmsford (1), and Pontefract (1) - today's top5-FSS runners are:

Please note that the odds are the forecast odds from the Sporting Life racecards by race, should I have enough time later and see actual odds from this morning I will update the odds for the 2 FSS runners and take out this sentence.

Chelmsford
5.50 Canford Cliffs Thee And Me 10/1

Pontefract
2.10 Lilbourne Lad Spike 5/2f

A quiet day today, Lilbourne Lad has a favourite though, so perhaps he'll follow up yesterday's winner with another one today.

Enjoy!
 
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No top5-FSS winners yesterday - and another winner for Lilbourne Lad when Spike 6/4f won by a neck.


Today there are 7 2-y-o races - Ayr (4), and Newbury (3) - today's top5-FSS runners are:


Don't know what happened yesterday morning to the actual odds on the Sporting Life racecards by race - anyway, the odds are back on today.


Ayr
1.30 Zoffany St Dunston 13/2
2.00 Zoffany Wocha 9/2 & Picture Painter 18/1
2.30 Dream Ahead Donjuan Triumphant 12/1

Newbury
3.55 Dream Ahead Blackout 14/1


The advance listing for the weekend will be posted early afternoon.


Enjoy!
 
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Ayr 2.00

CONSTANTINO (13/8) - was given a nice introduction on his debut at York last month is a Dunhill Dancer half-brother to Amazing Maria the winner of two Group 1s this year before disappointing in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time.

WOWCHA (7/1) - a newcomer and a Zoffany half-sister to The Wow Signal -RPR 116- a successful 2-y-o last year.

Newbury 3.55

TUKHOOM (20/1) - an un-raced Acclamation gelding who is a half-brother to Tupi, the winner of two Listed events at Newmarket this year. A tough ask on debut.
 
Already got all input for this weekend, so off to an early one :D


Here's the list of the top5-FSS runners for Saturday and Sunday (the odds are the forecast odds of the Sporting Life racecard by race and thus may not be as accurate as the odds posted in the morning of a raceday):



Saturday - a total of 12 2-y-o races in UK & IRL - Ayr (2), Catterick (3), Newbury (3), Newmarket (2) and Wolverhampton (2) - runners of top5-FSS are:

Ayr
2.00 Canford Cliffs Lady Choir 7/1 & Silhuette 10/1

Catterick
3.00 Lilbourne Lad Quick N Quirky 8/1

Newbury
2.15 Dream Ahead Raucous 11/4, Poet's Voice Whitman 7/1
4.00 Canford Cliffs Storm Rising 9/4f, Lilbourne Lad Forgotten Wish 8/1 & Lilbourne Prince 16/1

Newmarket
3.15 Dream Ahead Hillside Dream 12/1

Wolverhampton
7.10 Lilbourne Lad Totzo 8/1
8.10 Lilbourne Lad Nouvelli Dancer 50/1



Sunday - a total of 4 2-y-o races in UK & IRL - Gowran Park (2) and Hamilton (2) - runners of top5-FSS are:

Gowran Park
2.25 Canford Cliffs Aspen Mountain 14/1 & Ocean Tides 20/1


Enjoy!
 
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