EC1
On a break
the going times out at heavy end of soft at Chester..will be a thorough test for the 2yo's
The 2015 2-y-o thread.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
EC1
On a break
won nice..the figures are stacking up nicely..chelmsford decent race..thought it was better than the brocklesby at the time...winner of that beaten by the fastest 2yo of season..2nd placed in it beats reasonable early types here today
log out island ...is the one to better before Ascot..hopefully we will see another 2 or 3 big figures before then from something
log out island ...is the one to better before Ascot..hopefully we will see another 2 or 3 big figures before then from something
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Colin Phillips
At the Start
Nice one, EC.
High Speed got away well enough but wasn't good enough on the day.
High Speed got away well enough but wasn't good enough on the day.
EC1
On a break
the shorter distance races there are being run too fast in the conditions generally Col..leaders are tieing up in the straight in many races due to ground being so slow.
Danoli
Banned member
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2013
- Messages
- 210
RaceBets had taken off the odds for FSS champion for a few days. They're back on now and there are some interesting changes once again.
Zoffany 8/11 (from 2/1)
Lilbourne Lad 3/1 (from 7/2)
Canford Cliffs 10/3 (from 5/2)
Poet's Voice 4/1
Roderic O'Connor 6/1
Dream Ahead 7/1 (from 11/2)
Frozen Power 10/1 (from 11/1)
Pour Moi 20/1
Dick Turpin 100/1 (from 66/1)
These are the progeny numbers posted earlier by Eleanora Duse:
I dont quite understand the recent hefty change of odds for Zoffany going from 2/1 to 8/11 apart from the fact that RaceBets are reacting quickly to biggish bets or to some smaller ones in a row.
Given the current situation in the table with Zoffany on 3 winners, Lilbourne Lad on 2 and Canford Cliffs, Frozen Power, Poet's Voice, Roderoc O'Connor and Soul City each on 1 winner there is absolutely no reason for any FSS to be odds on - especially as it's early days in the year and with the number of progeny considered, too.
Personally I see it between Zoffany and Lilbourne Lad and I see a slight edge for Lilbourne Lad. Odds in my view would be fair around 7/4 to 9/4 for these two, so I think Zoffany is underpriced and Lilbourne Lad is overpriced.
For the time being I will not re-invest as I had backed Zoffany, Lilbourne Lad and Canford Cliffs earlier and each would give me the same payout/profit. For others interested in the market it may now well be worth to go against the odds on favourite and pick may be 2 or 3 at odds of 3/1 and above or - alternatively - if Zoffany is fancied to wait longer until the situation has established a bit clearer and go in with a bigger stake.
Zoffany 8/11 (from 2/1)
Lilbourne Lad 3/1 (from 7/2)
Canford Cliffs 10/3 (from 5/2)
Poet's Voice 4/1
Roderic O'Connor 6/1
Dream Ahead 7/1 (from 11/2)
Frozen Power 10/1 (from 11/1)
Pour Moi 20/1
Dick Turpin 100/1 (from 66/1)
These are the progeny numbers posted earlier by Eleanora Duse:
I dont quite understand the recent hefty change of odds for Zoffany going from 2/1 to 8/11 apart from the fact that RaceBets are reacting quickly to biggish bets or to some smaller ones in a row.
Given the current situation in the table with Zoffany on 3 winners, Lilbourne Lad on 2 and Canford Cliffs, Frozen Power, Poet's Voice, Roderoc O'Connor and Soul City each on 1 winner there is absolutely no reason for any FSS to be odds on - especially as it's early days in the year and with the number of progeny considered, too.
Personally I see it between Zoffany and Lilbourne Lad and I see a slight edge for Lilbourne Lad. Odds in my view would be fair around 7/4 to 9/4 for these two, so I think Zoffany is underpriced and Lilbourne Lad is overpriced.
For the time being I will not re-invest as I had backed Zoffany, Lilbourne Lad and Canford Cliffs earlier and each would give me the same payout/profit. For others interested in the market it may now well be worth to go against the odds on favourite and pick may be 2 or 3 at odds of 3/1 and above or - alternatively - if Zoffany is fancied to wait longer until the situation has established a bit clearer and go in with a bigger stake.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Today's races:
Cork 5.10
All newcomers and I'm with Cry Me A River on breeding, a good half-brother and two decent full siblings.
Nottingham 5.45
Another runner from that good Chelmsford race in this. Lil's Joy, by first season sire Lilbourne Lad, ran fourth there and is probably the best of those with form. Of the debutantes we have Zoffany(FSS) represented by Cara's Muse and Tawwaaq, a half-sister to the useful sprinter Steps.
Ripon 6.00
Mozimba the only one to have run doesn't look good enough. FSS Canford Cliffs has Holy Grail and another FSS Poet's Voice has Midnight Malibu. Satin Chic a half-sister to decent 6f. handicapper Seal Rock is also of interest.
Ascot 6.05
Of the four that have run I think Rial might do best here. Dream Dreamer represents FSS Dream Ahead and she showed some ability at Windsor on debut. Of the newcomers, Kassia is reportedly one of Mick Channon's better ones and Fatawwy makes some appeal on breeding but Brian Meehan's first time out don't win do they!?
Cork 5.10
All newcomers and I'm with Cry Me A River on breeding, a good half-brother and two decent full siblings.
Nottingham 5.45
Another runner from that good Chelmsford race in this. Lil's Joy, by first season sire Lilbourne Lad, ran fourth there and is probably the best of those with form. Of the debutantes we have Zoffany(FSS) represented by Cara's Muse and Tawwaaq, a half-sister to the useful sprinter Steps.
Ripon 6.00
Mozimba the only one to have run doesn't look good enough. FSS Canford Cliffs has Holy Grail and another FSS Poet's Voice has Midnight Malibu. Satin Chic a half-sister to decent 6f. handicapper Seal Rock is also of interest.
Ascot 6.05
Of the four that have run I think Rial might do best here. Dream Dreamer represents FSS Dream Ahead and she showed some ability at Windsor on debut. Of the newcomers, Kassia is reportedly one of Mick Channon's better ones and Fatawwy makes some appeal on breeding but Brian Meehan's first time out don't win do they!?
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Colin Phillips
At the Start
A good day at the races for the Fahey 2-y-os yesterday. At Nottingham Kept Under Wraps justified the strong support (11/4f.), no doubt racing on the stand rail helped but she always looked to be holding Lil's Joy. The Ripon win of Holy Grail wasn't quite as expected, the daughter of first season sire Canford Cliffs ran on well to get the better of the tiring leaders. In what looked a good race at Ascot the Kodiac filly Beshara came with a withering run inside the final 100m. to cut down Kassia and Rial. There will be future winners coming from this race.
Today:
Lingfield 1.50
FSS Canford Cliffs (Katie Canford) and Lilbourne Lad (Olivia Pope) have runners in this, both of these sires have made a prompt start to their breeding careers. Of the three that have run Archimedes looks best. The Godolphin newcomer Strong Challenge is of interest, he is a full-brother to Bullish Champion who did well in top handicaps in Hong Kong and Half-brother to Riskit Fora Biskit, a Listed sprint winner in France and Fox Trotter a winner on 2-y-o debut and placed second in the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury.
Ascot 4.20
Another Fahey debutant, Paddy Power, heads the market here at a very skinny 5/4 but they have been winning with regularity. Of the ones with form Jaadu and Beaverbrook should improve on their promising debuts. Again, I find it hard to drag myself away from the breeding of Myselfie but the terrible 2-y-o record of Derek Shaw and the terrible name put me off.
Today:
Lingfield 1.50
FSS Canford Cliffs (Katie Canford) and Lilbourne Lad (Olivia Pope) have runners in this, both of these sires have made a prompt start to their breeding careers. Of the three that have run Archimedes looks best. The Godolphin newcomer Strong Challenge is of interest, he is a full-brother to Bullish Champion who did well in top handicaps in Hong Kong and Half-brother to Riskit Fora Biskit, a Listed sprint winner in France and Fox Trotter a winner on 2-y-o debut and placed second in the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury.
Ascot 4.20
Another Fahey debutant, Paddy Power, heads the market here at a very skinny 5/4 but they have been winning with regularity. Of the ones with form Jaadu and Beaverbrook should improve on their promising debuts. Again, I find it hard to drag myself away from the breeding of Myselfie but the terrible 2-y-o record of Derek Shaw and the terrible name put me off.
EC1
On a break
i like Jaadu in that 4.10.
Paddy Power has a couple of FTO failings on the stats which puts me off. Also Fahey underperforms here with 2yo..2/36..with them winning just 57% of market chance.
Jaadu has a few things on his side...Channons great record here with juveniles at this time of year..and the sires record with quick returning 2yo's is very good.
Paddy Power has a couple of FTO failings on the stats which puts me off. Also Fahey underperforms here with 2yo..2/36..with them winning just 57% of market chance.
Jaadu has a few things on his side...Channons great record here with juveniles at this time of year..and the sires record with quick returning 2yo's is very good.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
At Lingfield yesterday we had an example of why previous racecourse experience is important. The winner, Riflescope, had run third on debut at Nottingham, looked thoroughly professional, breaking well and making all on the stand rail. On the other hand Strong Challenge, making his debut, looked like a pupil on his first day at a new school, not knowing what it was all about, missing the break, running green but keeping on at the finish for second place, no doubt he will be winning races.
Jaadu was very disappointing at Ascot. Beavercreek looked and ran well but had no answer to the run of the Godolphin-owned Steady Pace who made a very nice debut.
Today.
Leopardstown 2.10
There are three first season sires with runners in this; Roderick O'Connor (Mint Chai), Frozen Power (Power Grid) and Zoffany (Stamp Hill). Mint Chai showed loadsa promise on his debut at Cork and this race appears to be between him and Ard San Aer who was second to his stablemate Mimicking at the Curragh. Very difficult to chose between them.
Jaadu was very disappointing at Ascot. Beavercreek looked and ran well but had no answer to the run of the Godolphin-owned Steady Pace who made a very nice debut.
Today.
Leopardstown 2.10
There are three first season sires with runners in this; Roderick O'Connor (Mint Chai), Frozen Power (Power Grid) and Zoffany (Stamp Hill). Mint Chai showed loadsa promise on his debut at Cork and this race appears to be between him and Ard San Aer who was second to his stablemate Mimicking at the Curragh. Very difficult to chose between them.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Early tables:
Top 2-y-o sire
STALLIONWINNERS-RUNNERSWINSRUNS£ WIN PRIZE£ TOTAL PRIZEDark Angel4-11 36%417£22,623£31,801Zebedee4-16 25%419£22,264£29,720Zoffany3-7 43%38£22,628£24,704Equiano3-9 33%311£24,196£26,613Alfred Nobel2-2 100%25£12,004£13,929Raven´s Pass2-4 50%27£7,181£7,613Canford Cliffs2-6 33%28£6,469£8,055Invincible Spirit2-6 33%29£13,030£21,365Pastoral Pursuits2-6 33%29£5,791£13,009Kheleyf2-8 25%213£7,763£12,063Lilbourne Lad2-10 20%214£6,469£14,661Approve2-10 20%215£6,132£9,157Kodiac2-21 10%226£13,585£21,381Lonhro1-1 100%22£16,548£16,548Camacho1-1 100%11£3,235£3,235Makfi1-1 100%11£3,235£3,235Diktat1-1 100%11£3,235£3,235Street Boss1-1 100%12£8,291£10,461Elusive City1-1 100%12£3,235£3,235Dutch Art1-1 100%12£2,911£2,911Soul City1-1 100%12£2,264£2,481Arakan1-2 50%12£3,235£3,235Strategic Prince1-2 50%12£2,782£2,974Roderic O´Connor1-2 50%13£2,911£7,137Bertolini1-2 50%13£3,235£3,667
Top 2-y-o sire
STALLIONWINNERS-RUNNERSWINSRUNS£ WIN PRIZE£ TOTAL PRIZEDark Angel4-11 36%417£22,623£31,801Zebedee4-16 25%419£22,264£29,720Zoffany3-7 43%38£22,628£24,704Equiano3-9 33%311£24,196£26,613Alfred Nobel2-2 100%25£12,004£13,929Raven´s Pass2-4 50%27£7,181£7,613Canford Cliffs2-6 33%28£6,469£8,055Invincible Spirit2-6 33%29£13,030£21,365Pastoral Pursuits2-6 33%29£5,791£13,009Kheleyf2-8 25%213£7,763£12,063Lilbourne Lad2-10 20%214£6,469£14,661Approve2-10 20%215£6,132£9,157Kodiac2-21 10%226£13,585£21,381Lonhro1-1 100%22£16,548£16,548Camacho1-1 100%11£3,235£3,235Makfi1-1 100%11£3,235£3,235Diktat1-1 100%11£3,235£3,235Street Boss1-1 100%12£8,291£10,461Elusive City1-1 100%12£3,235£3,235Dutch Art1-1 100%12£2,911£2,911Soul City1-1 100%12£2,264£2,481Arakan1-2 50%12£3,235£3,235Strategic Prince1-2 50%12£2,782£2,974Roderic O´Connor1-2 50%13£2,911£7,137Bertolini1-2 50%13£3,235£3,667
Colin Phillips
At the Start
First season sires
[TABLE="class: grid right, width: 635"]
<tbody>[TR="class: rowSorting"]
[TH="class: first left, align: left"]STALLION[/TH]
[TH]WINNERS–RUNNERS[/TH]
[TH]WINS[/TH]
[TH]RUNS[/TH]
[TH]2ND[/TH]
[TH]3RD[/TH]
[TH]4TH[/TH]
[TH]WIN PRIZE[/TH]
[TH="class: last"]TOTAL PRIZE[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: separatorSmall, colspan: 10"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Zoffany[/TD]
[TD]3-7 43%[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]£22,628[/TD]
[TD]£24,704[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Canford Cliffs[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2-6 33%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£6,469[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£8,055[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Lilbourne Lad[/TD]
[TD]2-10 20%[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]£6,469[/TD]
[TD]£14,661[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Soul City[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1-1 100%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,264[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,481[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Roderic O´Connor[/TD]
[TD]1-2 50%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]£2,911[/TD]
[TD]£7,137[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Frozen Power[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1-2 50%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,386[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,578[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Poet´s Voice[/TD]
[TD]1-3 33%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]£3,235[/TD]
[TD]£3,235[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Wootton Bassett[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0-1 0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Atlantic Sport[/TD]
[TD]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]£0[/TD]
[TD]£524[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Dick Turpin[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£241[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Dream Ahead[/TD]
[TD]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]£0[/TD]
[TD]£625[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Elusive Pimpernel[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£481[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Sorry about formats, haven't mastered the intracacies of the MacBook yet.
[TABLE="class: grid right, width: 635"]
<tbody>[TR="class: rowSorting"]
[TH="class: first left, align: left"]STALLION[/TH]
[TH]WINNERS–RUNNERS[/TH]
[TH]WINS[/TH]
[TH]RUNS[/TH]
[TH]2ND[/TH]
[TH]3RD[/TH]
[TH]4TH[/TH]
[TH]WIN PRIZE[/TH]
[TH="class: last"]TOTAL PRIZE[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: separatorSmall, colspan: 10"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Zoffany[/TD]
[TD]3-7 43%[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]£22,628[/TD]
[TD]£24,704[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Canford Cliffs[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2-6 33%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£6,469[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£8,055[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Lilbourne Lad[/TD]
[TD]2-10 20%[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]£6,469[/TD]
[TD]£14,661[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Soul City[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1-1 100%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,264[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,481[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Roderic O´Connor[/TD]
[TD]1-2 50%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]£2,911[/TD]
[TD]£7,137[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Frozen Power[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1-2 50%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,386[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£2,578[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Poet´s Voice[/TD]
[TD]1-3 33%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]£3,235[/TD]
[TD]£3,235[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Wootton Bassett[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0-1 0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Atlantic Sport[/TD]
[TD]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]£0[/TD]
[TD]£524[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Dick Turpin[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£241[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, align: left"]Dream Ahead[/TD]
[TD]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]£0[/TD]
[TD]£625[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: greyRow"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: first left, bgcolor: #F4F3EE, align: left"]Elusive Pimpernel[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0-2 0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F4F3EE"]£481[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Sorry about formats, haven't mastered the intracacies of the MacBook yet.
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Eleanora Duse
Conditional
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2013
- Messages
- 888
An early batting order on Bell's 2yos (in my humble opinion)
Academy House
Rosecomb
Big Sky
Golden Hello
Show Legend (but may be already better than this)
Modest, Giant Shadow, Cape Orford, Towerland Park, Carter Pace (terribly green: may be better)
Bocking End
Sciarra
Blue Moon Rising
There are 3 I can't tie in at the moment but The Major is ahead of Duck a L'Orange and General Hazard.
Very difficult to differentiate from the small amount of evidence you see. Will be interested in the run of Rosecomb (Rip Van Winkle out of a Mtoto mare) on Thursday. Spencer is in the plate!!!
Academy House
Rosecomb
Big Sky
Golden Hello
Show Legend (but may be already better than this)
Modest, Giant Shadow, Cape Orford, Towerland Park, Carter Pace (terribly green: may be better)
Bocking End
Sciarra
Blue Moon Rising
There are 3 I can't tie in at the moment but The Major is ahead of Duck a L'Orange and General Hazard.
Very difficult to differentiate from the small amount of evidence you see. Will be interested in the run of Rosecomb (Rip Van Winkle out of a Mtoto mare) on Thursday. Spencer is in the plate!!!
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Very useful Eleanora - I assume you work at bell's then?
Danoli
Banned member
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2013
- Messages
- 210
Latest odds for FSS champion by RaceBets as per today:
Zoffany 8/11
Canford Cliffs 5/2 (from 10/3)
Lilbourne Lad 3/1
Poet's Voice 9/2 (from 4/1)
Roderic O'Connor 6/1
Dream Ahead 7/1
Frozen Power 11/1 (from 10/1)
Pour Moi 20/1
Dick Turpin 50/1 (from 100/1)
The top 3 in the market are the ones on 3 respectively 2 wins. Frozen Power Poet's Voice, Roderic O'Connor and Soull City are the only other FSS with a win against them.
I've also compared the current RaceBets odds against the initial odds offered by PaddyPower before they decided to take off the market - Paddy Power's initial odds in brackets:
Zoffany 8/11 (9/4)
Canford Cliffs 5/2 (11/4)
Lilbourne Lad 3/1 (10/3)
Poet's Voice 9/2 (10/1)
Roderic O'Connor 6/1 (16/1)
Dream Ahead 7/1 (7/2)
Frozen Power 11/1 (13/2)
Pour Moi 20/1 (12/1)
Dick Turpin 50/1 (50/1)
Zoffany shows a sharp and not really justified shortening to odds on. Canford Cliffs and Lilbourne Lad are pretty much were PP showed them initially - despite RaceBets having had a few needless reactions lowering and/or raising their odds.
From the others Roderic O'Connor was overpriced with both RaceBets and PaddyPower - nicely spotted by Eleanora Duse - and looks fairly priced now, a bit on the generous side may be.
Poet's Voice I find difficult to judge - may be Racebets reacted a bit to much lowering his odds after his sole win, whilst PaddyPower had him a bit too high initially.
Dream Ahead and Frozen Power got pushed out gradually, I'd say PaddyPower went too low on both.
Pur Moi hardly noticeable so far and apparently not a lot of interest for him due to the odds.
Dick Turpin was - and still is - the rank outsider. RaceBets went a bit too low on him initially and gradually pushed him out to 100/1 before somebody finally got tempted by rhe odds and had them returned to 50/1.
Looks the top 3 in the current market keep generating most interest - and rightly so in my eyes. Of the others Roderic O'Connor is the interesting outsider. I can't see Dream Ahead playing a very strong role becoming Champion FSS and the same I'd say about Poet's Voice and Frozen Power - may be Frozen Power the likeliest to have some nice winners here and there.
Pour Moi and Dick Turpin are no threats and so are any of the other FSS without odds for them - like Soul City, Elusive Pimpernel and some others.
In the end number of runners and - even more so - number of runs will be the deciding factor rather than reasons like making early 2-y-o's.
Last year Zebedee decided it through runs and the fact he had some very early and good 2-y-o's of the many that he had anyway..
The top 3 in this year's market look likely to follow in his path - Lilbourne Lad the most runs so far, Zoffany and Canford Cliffs will at least pursue him all season. May be Zoffany can overtake LL by number of runs in a few weeks.
Zoffany 8/11
Canford Cliffs 5/2 (from 10/3)
Lilbourne Lad 3/1
Poet's Voice 9/2 (from 4/1)
Roderic O'Connor 6/1
Dream Ahead 7/1
Frozen Power 11/1 (from 10/1)
Pour Moi 20/1
Dick Turpin 50/1 (from 100/1)
The top 3 in the market are the ones on 3 respectively 2 wins. Frozen Power Poet's Voice, Roderic O'Connor and Soull City are the only other FSS with a win against them.
I've also compared the current RaceBets odds against the initial odds offered by PaddyPower before they decided to take off the market - Paddy Power's initial odds in brackets:
Zoffany 8/11 (9/4)
Canford Cliffs 5/2 (11/4)
Lilbourne Lad 3/1 (10/3)
Poet's Voice 9/2 (10/1)
Roderic O'Connor 6/1 (16/1)
Dream Ahead 7/1 (7/2)
Frozen Power 11/1 (13/2)
Pour Moi 20/1 (12/1)
Dick Turpin 50/1 (50/1)
Zoffany shows a sharp and not really justified shortening to odds on. Canford Cliffs and Lilbourne Lad are pretty much were PP showed them initially - despite RaceBets having had a few needless reactions lowering and/or raising their odds.
From the others Roderic O'Connor was overpriced with both RaceBets and PaddyPower - nicely spotted by Eleanora Duse - and looks fairly priced now, a bit on the generous side may be.
Poet's Voice I find difficult to judge - may be Racebets reacted a bit to much lowering his odds after his sole win, whilst PaddyPower had him a bit too high initially.
Dream Ahead and Frozen Power got pushed out gradually, I'd say PaddyPower went too low on both.
Pur Moi hardly noticeable so far and apparently not a lot of interest for him due to the odds.
Dick Turpin was - and still is - the rank outsider. RaceBets went a bit too low on him initially and gradually pushed him out to 100/1 before somebody finally got tempted by rhe odds and had them returned to 50/1.
Looks the top 3 in the current market keep generating most interest - and rightly so in my eyes. Of the others Roderic O'Connor is the interesting outsider. I can't see Dream Ahead playing a very strong role becoming Champion FSS and the same I'd say about Poet's Voice and Frozen Power - may be Frozen Power the likeliest to have some nice winners here and there.
Pour Moi and Dick Turpin are no threats and so are any of the other FSS without odds for them - like Soul City, Elusive Pimpernel and some others.
In the end number of runners and - even more so - number of runs will be the deciding factor rather than reasons like making early 2-y-o's.
Last year Zebedee decided it through runs and the fact he had some very early and good 2-y-o's of the many that he had anyway..
The top 3 in this year's market look likely to follow in his path - Lilbourne Lad the most runs so far, Zoffany and Canford Cliffs will at least pursue him all season. May be Zoffany can overtake LL by number of runs in a few weeks.
Eleanora Duse
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- Joined
- Jan 2, 2013
- Messages
- 888
It's on his website. You just have to go through all the videos and try to judge who does best.
Must admit as I was going through the list order I wondered if it was the equivalent of the Porridge Stakes..........not that interesting.
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Colin Phillips
At the Start
At Leopardstown yesterday, Ard San Aer won quite narrowly but well from a group of three; Mint Chai, the favourite, and two newcomers, Galway Bay and the Zoffany colt Stamp Hill. Both of the debutants showed promise.
Today:
Wolverhampton 1.50
Not a particularly inspiring event. The likely favourite, Copacobana, probably has the best form of those that have run. Of the newcomers Bales is a full sister to Pleasant Bay, a winner a winner as a 2-y-o and fourth in a Listed event at the Curragh, and a half-sister to Capable Guest, placed in the Coventry in 2004.
Musselburgh 2.30
Bertie Buoy, who showed little on debut at Thirsk, is the only one that has had a run. Fisher gate looks like being another short-price Fahey debutant. Heraldic has some very nice American breeding, by Discreet Cat (who has done well with a small number of runners here) out of a daughter of Chilukki a decent sprinter in the US.
Windsor 5.50
This looks like a convention for offspring of first season sires; three for Canford Cliffs and one each for Zoffany and Lilbourne Lad. Much the most interesting of these is the Lilbourne Lad filly, Tears In My Eyes. She is a half-sister to Rich Tapestry, a winner of four races including a Grade 1 6f. race on dirt. Of those that have run, Alaskan Phantom's second at Windsor looks best
Today:
Wolverhampton 1.50
Not a particularly inspiring event. The likely favourite, Copacobana, probably has the best form of those that have run. Of the newcomers Bales is a full sister to Pleasant Bay, a winner a winner as a 2-y-o and fourth in a Listed event at the Curragh, and a half-sister to Capable Guest, placed in the Coventry in 2004.
Musselburgh 2.30
Bertie Buoy, who showed little on debut at Thirsk, is the only one that has had a run. Fisher gate looks like being another short-price Fahey debutant. Heraldic has some very nice American breeding, by Discreet Cat (who has done well with a small number of runners here) out of a daughter of Chilukki a decent sprinter in the US.
Windsor 5.50
This looks like a convention for offspring of first season sires; three for Canford Cliffs and one each for Zoffany and Lilbourne Lad. Much the most interesting of these is the Lilbourne Lad filly, Tears In My Eyes. She is a half-sister to Rich Tapestry, a winner of four races including a Grade 1 6f. race on dirt. Of those that have run, Alaskan Phantom's second at Windsor looks best
Colin Phillips
At the Start
From my point of view a very unsatisfactory day yesterday. No mention given to any of the winners and the horses Idid mention ran like drains.
Ah! well on to today:
Beverley 2.25
Three first season sires with runners; Poet's Voice (Bathos), Frozen Power (Emerald Asset) and Canford Cliffs (Canford Kilbey). The last named is of the most interest of those. Of the ones with experience General Alexander's third in the Brocklesby might be best. He has the disadvantage of being drawn 11, That'll Happen (trained by Channon whose 2-y-os seem to be running OK) is nicely drawn in 2 but faces a much different test to his debut 5f. at Bath on firm.
Chelmsford 7.05
Carrington is odds on (at the moment) to step up on his promising debut fifth Newmarket behind Zebstar. FSS Zoffany has Spongy , a half-brother to two decent animals, running for him. Another newcomer Fakeittilyamakeit is also related to some decent ones.
Ah! well on to today:
Beverley 2.25
Three first season sires with runners; Poet's Voice (Bathos), Frozen Power (Emerald Asset) and Canford Cliffs (Canford Kilbey). The last named is of the most interest of those. Of the ones with experience General Alexander's third in the Brocklesby might be best. He has the disadvantage of being drawn 11, That'll Happen (trained by Channon whose 2-y-os seem to be running OK) is nicely drawn in 2 but faces a much different test to his debut 5f. at Bath on firm.
Chelmsford 7.05
Carrington is odds on (at the moment) to step up on his promising debut fifth Newmarket behind Zebstar. FSS Zoffany has Spongy , a half-brother to two decent animals, running for him. Another newcomer Fakeittilyamakeit is also related to some decent ones.
EC1
On a break
that zebstar form looks poor on overall time and sectional time Colin...i am looking to find one to beat carrington..not looked yet at the others but i don't think that newmarket form is worth much
Colin Phillips
At the Start
You could well be right, EC. Touch of suck it and see at this stage of the season.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
I'm thinking of backing Spongy ew in that race
Fell out of the stalls, no chance.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
At Beverley yesterday General Alexander and That'll Happen ran well but not well enough to hold the challenge of Fahey's newcomer Lathom who ran and won in a very professional manner. Harrington easily landed the odds at Chelmsford. Spongy lost whatever chance he had at the start and the other one I mention, Fakeitilyamakeit, will need to improve a lot for this poor run.
Today:
York 4.50
Only four go to post here and on form and from a breeding point of view Dheban is the choice.
Bath 5.15
Art Collection is the first runner for first season sire Shakesperean. Another FSS Dick Turpin is represented by Receding Waves. The ones that have run have shown little.
Naas 5.35
Of those with form nothing stands out. From the breeding angle Dermot Weld's Piazzini is of some interest.
Naas 6.05
Argentero, a son of FSS Zoffany, impressed when winning on debut here last month. Zoffany is also represented by the O'Brien-trained Waterloo Bridge disappointing on debut at the Curragh. It will take something special for a newcomer to take this.
Today:
York 4.50
Only four go to post here and on form and from a breeding point of view Dheban is the choice.
Bath 5.15
Art Collection is the first runner for first season sire Shakesperean. Another FSS Dick Turpin is represented by Receding Waves. The ones that have run have shown little.
Naas 5.35
Of those with form nothing stands out. From the breeding angle Dermot Weld's Piazzini is of some interest.
Naas 6.05
Argentero, a son of FSS Zoffany, impressed when winning on debut here last month. Zoffany is also represented by the O'Brien-trained Waterloo Bridge disappointing on debut at the Curragh. It will take something special for a newcomer to take this.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Three quite impressive debuts yesterday; Areen at York, Round Two at Naas and Tawdheef at Bath.
Today:
Salisbury 1.50.
Not much form on show, on a breeding basis Azhar looks interesting.
York 4.50
First Season Sire Cape Blanco has his first runner with Munira Eyes, he is a half-brother to No Jet Lag who became a decent miler in the USA and Optari , placed in a Group 3 in France. Poet's Voice another FSS is represented by Ode To Evening.
Newmarket 5.15
Three FSS with runners here; Lilbourne Lad (Cat Royale), Zoffany (Freddie Freeloader) and Dick Turpin (Highway Robber). The last named is a half-brother to two decent 7f. handicappers.
Today:
Salisbury 1.50.
Not much form on show, on a breeding basis Azhar looks interesting.
York 4.50
First Season Sire Cape Blanco has his first runner with Munira Eyes, he is a half-brother to No Jet Lag who became a decent miler in the USA and Optari , placed in a Group 3 in France. Poet's Voice another FSS is represented by Ode To Evening.
Newmarket 5.15
Three FSS with runners here; Lilbourne Lad (Cat Royale), Zoffany (Freddie Freeloader) and Dick Turpin (Highway Robber). The last named is a half-brother to two decent 7f. handicappers.