The 2020 Longshot Thread

Looking at the proximity of 5 lengths between Regal Encore and Vinndication, in that chase you refer to you last year, I can't really believe they sent Regal Encore off at the price that they did last Saturday.

On that one performance one could argue he was nicely handicapped off 145.

Anyways, we live and learn.
 
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Marb said:
Looking at the proximity of 5 lengths between Regal Encore and Vinndication, in that chase you refer to you last year, I can't really believe they sent Regal Encore off at the price that they did last Saturday.

On that one performance one could argue he was nicely handicapped off 145.

Anyways, we live and learn.
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On Saturday I wrote elsewhere:

Regal Encore strikes me as a solid marker for the race. He tends to be a trier in good handicaps at this CD, usually running to his best form. His best form, though, shouldn’t be good enough to win an average renewal. I can see him running his race but finding one or two just too good.

Opted not to back it, not expecting the race to fall apart as it did. My main bet in the race was Whatmore :mad:

My bad re the Vinndication form too. Eyes to blame. Not worried about the Badger entry. Plenty of Hennessy runners use it to get fit.
 
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Potterman declared for the Badger ales on Saturday, along with Some Chaos who can run well assuming he jumps okay.
 
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Like I said, I'm not worried about Saturday's entry for Potterman. If he's up to going close at Newbury he won't be winning on Saturday because he won't be able to afford the penalty. If he does win, I can't even see him going to Newbury. You need either a Gold Cup horse or something stupidly well handicapped to win a modern Hennessy and he's already shown too much of his hand. I'll happier to see a jog round in midfield at the weekend.
 
There might be one over-priced in the Badger race.

Erick Le Rouge 25/1 4pl / 22/1 5pl - has had a prep run and wears pieces for the first time, another second-season novice who went off favourite last time so clearly didn't run to expectations and today's price might be an over-reaction to that run but he's had a month to get fitter.
 
GLENCADAM GLORY Nov hcap .took 33s last night.i think DO put this up for the ebor.with ellie mcCain claiming 7lb it seems to have a chance.

Just looked and its 66/1 now.i must be losing it.
 
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Outsider said:
GLENCADAM GLORY Nov hcap .took 33s last night.i think DO put this up for the ebor.with ellie mcCain claiming 7lb it seems to have a chance.

Just looked and its 66/1 now.i must be losing it.
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I did have a look at it with this thread in mind but the jockey booking combined with the trip put me off, plus it went up a few pounds for not winning the Ebor and hasn't come back down yet.
 
Every chance he is simply in decline, but I’m taking a small chance on Fagan (22/1 generally) in the Aintree Pertemps qualifier today.

Smart enough at one time to have finished second to Unowhatimeanharry in a Bartlett (granted, it was a few years ago), he somewhat lost his way in a novice chase campaign, and then had almost two years on the sidelines, before re-appearing for Alex Hales in a Haydock Pertemps qualifier in February this year (running with some credit before weakening; beaten around 20L behind Welsh Saint).

His only subsequent outing last season was when down the field in the Coral Cup, over a trip that was essentially far too sort for this thorough stayer.

Given his age and problems, he isn’t one for having the mortgage on, but the handicapper has given him a chance today off 134, and the yard continues to go well.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
There might be one over-priced in the Badger race.

Erick Le Rouge 25/1 4pl / 22/1 5pl - has had a prep run and wears pieces for the first time, another second-season novice who went off favourite last time so clearly didn't run to expectations and today's price might be an over-reaction to that run but he's had a month to get fitter.
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I've been waiting for another to drift and it has. Kitty's Light 20/1.

I don't recall a four-year-old ever running in this race let alone winning it but this one intrigued me when I checked the race out yesterday.

Its win a couple of weeks ago earned it quite a hike so it isn't out of the handicap and its claimer has been doing well for himself. There's absolutely no way of knowing if it will continue with another steep rise in performance or bounce or whatever but it strikes me as being very well bred for a NH horse (Nathaniel/Refuse To Bend) and at the price I can afford to pay a small price to find out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've been waiting for another to drift and it has. Kitty's Light 20/1.

I don't recall a four-year-old ever running in this race let alone winning it but this one intrigued me when I checked the race out yesterday.

Its win a couple of weeks ago earned it quite a hike so it isn't out of the handicap and its claimer has been doing well for himself. There's absolutely no way of knowing if it will continue with another steep rise in performance or bounce or whatever but it strikes me as being very well bred for a NH horse (Nathaniel/Refuse To Bend) and at the price I can afford to pay a small price to find out.
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Would have won if it could jump a fence.

Not sure what happened to Champagne Court who was carrying my money. Dicky had him 20 lengths off the leader at the start.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Like I said, I'm not worried about Saturday's entry for Potterman. If he's up to going close at Newbury he won't be winning on Saturday because he won't be able to afford the penalty. If he does win, I can't even see him going to Newbury..
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Thoughts?
 
I think the pace meant it was slightly out of its comfort zone. Had that horse not fallen at the second last and caused him to sidestep quite violently, I think he would have been very close. Cracking run by a 4yo and good persevering ride by young Jack Tudor.
 
I'm more inclined to put it down to inexperience at this level for its age but he covered the two bets.

Erick Le Rouge ran well but put in an extra stride at too many fences. He's better than the bare form and I'd love to see if Bryony Frost could get a tune out of him.

Very pleased that Potterman ran so well with the Hennessy longshot bet in mind. I can see his price for that halving on the back of this run as he is pretty much a winner without a penalty as he'll probably go up 4 or 5lbs for today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Potterman 40/1 5pl - this is Alan King's only entry for the race and is already in good form. Technically he is another second-season chaser but has already shown improved form, winning really nicely at Market Rasen and duly raised. However, this time last year, he was a 143-rated novice taking on the 151-rated Vinndication in an open £100k handicap chase at Ascot, beaten only five lengths. His rating subsequently came down and his new mark following his summer win leaves him a pound below that so, arguably, he might still have second-season improvement in him. It's possible the Scottish National is the target, as the trainer ran Dingo Dollar (twice) in this en route to its main objective at Ayr . But he also won this with that good grey Smad Place. Again, I have no idea if the plan is to run but he only needs six to come out to make the cut an he's near the top on RPRs.
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I'm still not sure Potterman will go for the Ladbrokes Chase but most bookies cut it after yesterday's good run. However, a couple didn't so I've gone in again at 40/1. As I mentioned yesterday, I reckon he'll go up 4 or 5lbs and if he does turn up it will become common knowledge that he's officially well in. He really shouldn't be any more than about 12/1. In a lesser race he'd be 5/2 if he was officially 5lbs well in.

He has three weeks to get over yesterday's exertions. That should be plenty of time. Yesterday suggested he has improved again. If he improves another couple of pounds by the end of the month he has to have a serious chance.
 
In Saturday's big hcap chase at Cheltenham (whatever it's now called) I've taken 50/1 Kauto Riko.

I was intending to hold on until the final decs but I see it has gone blue this morning in a number of places so I thought I'd better get in just in case it collapses (the price, but knowing my luck probably the horse).

He has a bit of good novice form against Top Notch which would put the latter in this race off 147. I know it doesn't really work that way but it looks like maybe the handicapper has over-reacted to a couple of modest runs and he's lightly enough raced to maybe have a smidgen of improvement despite being older than ideal.

You never know...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm still not sure Potterman will go for the Ladbrokes Chase but most bookies cut it after yesterday's good run. However, a couple didn't so I've gone in again at 40/1. As I mentioned yesterday, I reckon he'll go up 4 or 5lbs and if he does turn up it will become common knowledge that he's officially well in. He really shouldn't be any more than about 12/1. In a lesser race he'd be 5/2 if he was officially 5lbs well in.

He has three weeks to get over yesterday's exertions. That should be plenty of time. Yesterday suggested he has improved again. If he improves another couple of pounds by the end of the month he has to have a serious chance.
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Nice to get something right occasionally...

Potterman raised 5lbs for that effort so when people realise he's that much well in officially they won't let him go off - assuming he goes there - at 40/1 or anything near it.

Edit - one bookie (Betfred) still going 40s so I've taken another bite. This isn't to say I think it will/should win, just that it shouldn't be anywhere near 40/1.
 
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Two for this thread for the Greatwood:

Sir Psycho fits a little trend of mine that I watch out for the race and is 25/1, and Countister 20/1 must be a seriously well handicapped horse if the brakes are off.
 
It'll be interesting to see what path they take with Secret Investor now, having beaten Potterman 7 lengths giving him 11lb in weight the last day.

He's rated 162 now, and a 20/1 chance for the Ladbrokes Trophy.

I've put him in a couple of my ten to follow lists just in case he turns up in the Welsh National, which is a race Paul Nicholls has won twice before.
 
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Secret Investor and Potterman both need top of the ground though.................you may get that for the Hennessey, but I'd say the chances of getting that for the Welsh National is pretty much zero.
 
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Aye point taken, Darren. That could be the biggest problem. He's only ran on it twice though, you never know, the miracle might happen and it might come up gd-st. Fingers crossed.

He might even run well in the Hennessy yet, who knows.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Lamanver Pippin 50/1 5pl [Hennessy]- assuming TOTG runs LP will be 7lbs 'wrong', which might be offset at least partially by a good claimer, and I'm not convinced he'll even run, let alone stay the trip. He weakened badly late on in the NH Chase but is currently top-rated on RPRs (from his mark) and, as a second-season novice could improve considerably. Tizzard tends not to send donkeys for this race so if he makes the cut he might not be 50/1. They might campaign him to pick up a penalty as it would only be 4lbs so wouldn't affect his weight, in which case his price would probably contract anyway. It's worth some fun money early doors.
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Engaged in the conditionals' race on Saturday. Wouldn't pick up a penalty for it so no idea if it's prepping or trying and I now see the trainer is talking about it more as a Welsh National type.

But at least today he went blue on the exchange for the Hennessy ahead of this so I'm hopeful that Newbury remains under serious consideration regardless of whether he wins on Saturday.
 
Cheltenham 13:15 - Presenting Yeats

Looks like the Pipe horse is a warm order for this (my instinctive reaction is to always oppose such types from this yard) but I have had a small each-way tilt at Milton Harris's rag. A bumper winner over the summer, he's been held-up (and getting run off his feet) over the minimum trip in his four hurdle runs to-date, and it's interesting - to me, at any rate - that he is now upped significantly in trip on his first handicap outing. 25/1 is freely available, and I've played-up a few kopeks in the win market at 75.
 
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