The 2020 Longshot Thread

2.15 Cheltenham Domaine de l’isle 33/1 Paddy Power (6 places)
Ran up a 3 timer last season before jumping stickily and failing to stay the 3m at Ascot. Can do better today having been sharpened up by a spin over hurdles last month, especially if it gets testing


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Cheltenham 3.25 Nebuchadnezzar 33/1 4 pl - raised to 124 when he won a fair handicap on his final run last season quite takingly, suggesting he was on a curve. A couple of modest runs this season see him dropped a pound but the yard is in good form again and it doesn't strike me as a strong field.
 
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PP Gold Cup - Aso 22/1 6pl - I've always had big ratings for this horse and have no worries about his weight here. He's a wee bit Frodon-ish for me (in a good way, I mean) and I can see him running prominently throughout, jumping well and staying on strongly. Available at 25s to fewer places.

Brelan D'As 22/1 - as I mentioned elsewhere, JP will be desperate to win this having had so many placed over the years. It's hard to imagine any other scenario than that he's asked around his trainers for their best handicapped horse with this race in mind and he's elected to go it alone with this one and Nicholls will have plenty of ammo for a race he might well have been able to win with Frodon.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham 3.25 Nebuchadnezzar 33/1 4 pl - raised to 124 when he won a fair handicap on his final run last season quite takingly, suggesting he was on a curve. A couple of modest runs this season see him dropped a pound but the yard is in good form again and it doesn't strike me as a strong field.
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I've put this one in my tracker. I watched the race to see if my thoughts at the time were valid and it merely served to confirm them. This wasn't off an inch, as market weakness suggested. Anchored near the back, a couple of mistakes did nothing to stop it but the jockey, in my opinion, did plenty. Still on a tight rein going uphill for the final time, the jockey, in my opinion, pulled it back to let the others get away from it and then pretended to be shaking it up going downhill, whereas I think he was actually asking it to slow down. Left with no chance from two out, he allowed the horse to run on again up the hill to pass a few that were weakening.

Today's loss will be recouped at some point, make no mistake.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One for today.

Cheltenham 3.00 Whatsupwithyou 28/1 6 places - When I looked at the race yesterday I decided to look for second-season novices who might improve past the more exposed runners, usually a profitable ploy at this time of year. There's a handful of them in this race, of which WUWY is the longest price. His market weakness is sounding alarm bells but I'm sticking with it rather than be sick if does run as well as I hope. Not my main bet in the race but with the current top price (boostable to over 30/1) and the extra places on offer it might not be too risky. The worst that can happen is finish seventh...

Edit - the 7lb claimer is 4-11 for the trainer so far this season.
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It was only when I was watching the replays last night that this one rang bells. I must have forgotten to put it in my tracker although it's a facility I seldom use during the jumps season. I reckon I got lucky not putting sickness insurance on it but, as viking says, the young fella will hopefully learn from this mistake. The down side is that the horse will go up a fair bit for not winning.
 
Greatwood Hurdle - I managed to narrow this one down to just the eight :lol: but decided I didn't want to back all of them and narrowed it down to two. That was before checking the market and it turns out three of the eight qualify for the thread.

Harambe 20/1 - won last year's race and was looking likely to be involved in the finish of the Schweppes when brought down at the last. He would have put up a career best that day and it's possible he's got more to come but is under the radar because of that fall.

Countister 25/1 - now 3lbs lower than when an excellent third in the very strong 2019 County, well clear of a Mullins job in fourth. Has run slower than me every time since then but can't afford to get much lower in the weights or could miss out on the festival cuts. The slight worry is that I backed Dame De Compagnie for the same connections last year only for Geraghty to put the brakes on when he should have been making ground and the rest, as Charlie Nicholas would say, is geography. Sickness insurance is in order today.

Cormier 22/1 - backing up tiggers's keenness on this one, it's my main fancy in the race. I’ve gone high with Cormier’s form and he could be on a steep curve. The trainer took this with Nietzsche a couple of years ago although this one’s profile is quite different as he’s still unexposed and falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. Were he trained by Nicholls or Henderson he’d be 9/4f
 
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Desert, did your eightsome include Strong Glance? He cruised into contention at Aintree in his last race, but couldn’t hold Jacamar in the end. His stamina over the 2m4f trip has been a bit iffy and it’s interesting that Murphy has brought him back to this toughish 2m which is likely to be run at a strong pace. It might just suit him. 20/1 atm so just qualifies for your thread - I might just have 50p.:p
 
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No, barjon. It isn't one of them. I have it as an improver, though, so a win wouldn't be a total surprise. They've got Coleman up on the other one for the yard and he is one of the eight.

Rest assured, though, if Strong Glance is in with a shout and none of mine are, I'll be cheering him on for you.

Good to see you getting involved in the spirit of the thread!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Greatwood HurdleCormier 22/1 - backing up tiggers's keenness on this one, it's my main fancy in the race. I’ve gone high with Cormier’s form and he could be on a steep curve. The trainer took this with Nietzsche a couple of years ago although this one’s profile is quite different as he’s still unexposed and falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. Were he trained by Nicholls or Henderson he’d be 9/4f
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Good luck today, DO.

Cormier is an interesting one. I nearly backed him but saw this money for Jonjo O Neills horse so went with that one instead.

I suppose Cormier could run a very good race and maybe fill a place without winning. Thats my best guess of what might happen, but you never know, so best of luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Greatwood Hurdle - I managed to narrow this one down to just the eight :lol: but decided I didn't want to back all of them and narrowed it down to two.
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1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th plus Harambe who would have been placed. Didn't make a penny on the race but the winner was 12/1 when I looked at it last night and maybe taking the scattergun to the race would have at worst minimised losses.

Lesson to be learned...
 
Cairnshill 2.30 Hexham tomorrow...Hurry up

They've got him fit, They've got his handicap down, They've got their ground, he has bottom weight and the best form in the race....
 
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It's the kind of race you'd need to pay me to look at but, what the heck, you seem like an honest type of tyke so I'm in!

(Got 25/1 and the blue hue is encouraging.)
 
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Kempton 6.55 Imrahor 20/1 - a tracker horse although seemingly up against it here. Still, it's blue in a couple of places so maybe it can outrun its odds.
 
Saturday Ascot - Marracudja 25/1 - I planned to put this up on the day as a sickness insurance bet but I see Paul Kealy has gone and tipped it so the price will almost certainly contract. Hasn't been off an inch so far and is stupidly well handicapped on his best form, on my ratings.
 
Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'Air 25/1

Breaking one of my own recent resolutions here about not backing any more ante-post for the festival.

I read/heard somewhere in the last day or so that Hendo had said of Shishkin something about 'why train him for the Champion Hurdle when I have Epatante and Buveur D'Air?'

Considering the latter's problems and the other good horses Hendo does have, I'm reading quite a bit into that remark.

I have Epatante on something like 165 and she'll have the 7lbs allowance so it will take a 173+ male to dethrone her and I don't see anything around with that kind of rating. Except Buveur D'Air at his best.

If Hendo can get him back to the track and looking like his old self, the 25/1 will disappear.

Happy to have him onside at this stage at that price to small stakes just in case.
 
On the one hand, it’s probably a smart bet, as he’ll probably be introduced in something like the Contenders Hurdle, duff-up three no-marks/chancers, and have his price clipped.

On the other hand, it’s a bit odd to be breaking your self-imposed ante-post rule, to back a (rising) 10yo who won’t have seen the track for 16 months.

I reckon you could have found a better 25/1 shot to come out of hibernation, DO.
 
Hi guys: I’ve finally been able to re register after being in the wilderness for several weeks. I, too fancied Strong Glance for the Greatwood but annoyingly didn’t back The Shunter that was 5th on my ratings list. Tegretek was 2nd but his price was rubbish and although I like to back horses with claimers on board I read that 7lb claimers had a bad record in the race. I need Cairnshill to win as I’m now down to 1penny in my betting account and don’t want to top it up! I’ve got some money in a Corals account that I can play with but they don’t let me have best odds on it so I stopped using them.
 
Grasshopper said:
I reckon you could have found a better 25/1 shot to come out of hibernation, DO.
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I'd need to study the form for that, GH, and would need to know the definite target for pretty much anything else. At least with BD'A we know his level and target. If he gets there he won't be 25/1. If he doesn't, the price is irrelevant.
 
moe said:
Hi guys: I’ve finally been able to re register after being in the wilderness for several weeks. I, too fancied Strong Glance for the Greatwood but annoyingly didn’t back The Shunter that was 5th on my ratings list. Tegretek was 2nd but his price was rubbish and although I like to back horses with claimers on board I read that 7lb claimers had a bad record in the race. I need Cairnshill to win as I’m now down to 1penny in my betting account and don’t want to top it up! I’ve got some money in a Corals account that I can play with but they don’t let me have best odds on it so I stopped using them.
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Welcome back, Moe.
 
The two best 'value' bets for me in the Champion Hurdle are Saldier at 25/1 and Maries Rock at 50/1, both with cashout.

Mullins loves Saldier, and he'll start of in the Morgiana against Honeysuckle, and Maries Rock is a bang two miler so I suspect she'll end up in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. They rate her just as highly as they did Epatante at the same stage. She'll reappear in the Gerry Fielden just as Epatante sdid last year, or deputise for Epatante in the Fighting Fifth if Epatante doesn't go for any reason.

I'd want to see Buveur D'air entered up before I'd back him for my book, but don't disagree with the reasoning.
 
Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.
 
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Pretty sure I backed that nag a couple of times in decent hcap hurdles back in the day. Maybe worth some sickness insurance.
 
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