The 2020 Longshot Thread

Next up...

Ascot 2.30 Manuela De Vega 20/1 4 pl - hacked up in heavy ground in the Lancashire Oaks and the handicapper could easily have put her up a bit which would put her close to the favourites. No match for Love at York on fast ground so it's really just that poor run at the Arc meeting that requires forgivng and her price is probably an over-reaction and the extra place is a definite value bonus.
 
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Ascot 3.05 Molatham 25/1 each-way w/o Palace Pier - I do think the fav is past the post here and I was tempted by 66/1 this one in the full market but settled for 25s in the market without the favourite. He finished strongly in his Jersey win in soft ground looking as though the mile would suit. He's still a bit of a dark horse having only raced twice since, both times on faster ground. It's possible the Jean Prat came too soon after Ascot and Doncaster was maybe needed after a break. Back here in soft ground, he might find a bit of improvement and be in the shake-up for the places.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've gone in again on the Balmoral, this time with Raakib Alhawa 66/1, 6pl.

He comes here on the back of a couple of modest runs for which he’s been dropped 7lbs. He had gone off at just 6/1 for the G1 Futurity as a 2yo and this is his first run in a handicap. It’s also his first run since being gelded back in July. It’s possible the November Handicap is the real target but I’m happy to take 66/1 here.

If he's still the same price to more places on Saturday I might go in again.
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Having shortened in a couple of places since the other day, Raakib Alhawa has been pushed right out again, which makes me think Doncaster is probably the plan but I went in again anyway at 125/1 to 5 places. I'd be sick if it won at that price and I'd settled for 66s. It's my twisted logic. I'm the type that would be fizzing mad if I won £13m on the Euromillions the week after somebody won £160m :lol:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
First up today...

Ascot 1.20 Morando 20/1 4pl - I want Strad to win in similar style to his Gold Cup earlier this season and don't believe he had anything more than a training gallop in the Arc. But I do still worry about the ground for him. The second-top on ORs are on 117 but Morando has a historical OR of 117 too and is much longer in the market. He's an autumn horse, acts well in the ground and has winning course form. I have slight doubts about his stamina but the price and the extra place are ample compensation.

(Edit - I've also taken 9/1 ew w/o Strad)
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Profit decimated by the w/o bet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next up...

Ascot 1.55 Brando 80/1 5pl - This is a mixture of cliff horse and sickness insurance. I've put it up a few times this season in the thread and one of these days it will recoup losses. It would have been second at worst in the July Cup with a clean start and actually has a very good record in this race (last four attempts 3644, bumped when sixth) beaten an average of just over 1½ lengths in those placed efforts. With 5 places on offer I'm keeping him onside.
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Close but a massive e/W shout. Brilliant


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Desert Orchid said:
Next up...

Ascot 1.55 Brando 80/1 5pl - This is a mixture of cliff horse and sickness insurance. I've put it up a few times this season in the thread and one of these days it will recoup losses. It would have been second at worst in the July Cup with a clean start and actually has a very good record in this race (last four attempts 3644, bumped when sixth) beaten an average of just over 1½ lengths in those placed efforts. With 5 places on offer I'm keeping him onside.
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So so close unlucky DO
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next up...

Ascot 1.55 Brando 80/1 5pl - This is a mixture of cliff horse and sickness insurance. I've put it up a few times this season in the thread and one of these days it will recoup losses. It would have been second at worst in the July Cup with a clean start and actually has a very good record in this race (last four attempts 3644, bumped when sixth) beaten an average of just over 1½ lengths in those placed efforts. With 5 places on offer I'm keeping him onside.
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As Andy Capp used to say, "@&*$@*!!!"
 
Desert Orchid said:
Next...

Ascot 3.05 Molatham 25/1 each-way w/o Palace Pier - I do think the fav is past the post here and I was tempted by 66/1 this one in the full market but settled for 25s in the market without the favourite. He finished strongly in his Jersey win in soft ground looking as though the mile would suit. He's still a bit of a dark horse having only raced twice since, both times on faster ground. It's possible the Jean Prat came too soon after Ascot and Doncaster was maybe needed after a break. Back here in soft ground, he might find a bit of improvement and be in the shake-up for the places.
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Decided to take 50/1 in the open market given some of the results happening here today. Shortened up a fair bit from 66s across the board.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Graignes has gone blue through the day and I was just going to let it ride but a couple (Betfair & PP, same firm) have just pushed him back out to 33/1 so I've taken another bite. Nicola Currie booked. The shortening in odds is't dramatic (generally 25/1) but he's gone from having just one at longer odds earlier in the week to having a good half-dozen longer now.
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Didn't get the BOG with this one but getting 33s twice consolidates a tidy enough profit on the day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Didn't get the BOG with this one but getting 33s twice consolidates a tidy enough profit on the day.
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Thanks! I followed you with Graignes and then backed it again today realising the first bet was only first 4. Having said that I had no idea which horse they were talking about as I didn't know how to pronounce it. Quite a few people have been following Brando all season so a win would have been great but it was still a fantastic ew price. I really thought he'd done it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Having shortened in a couple of places since the other day, Raakib Alhawa has been pushed right out again, which makes me think Doncaster is probably the plan but I went in again anyway at 125/1 to 5 places. I'd be sick if it won at that price and I'd settled for 66s. It's my twisted logic.
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Just watched the race again. I didn't realise this fella had finished a very good 7th after a slow start. (Looked 6th to me on the TV but the RP result says 7th.) SP 125/1.
 
One for today.

Cheltenham 3.00 Whatsupwithyou 28/1 6 places - When I looked at the race yesterday I decided to look for second-season novices who might improve past the more exposed runners, usually a profitable ploy at this time of year. There's a handful of them in this race, of which WUWY is the longest price. His market weakness is sounding alarm bells but I'm sticking with it rather than be sick if does run as well as I hope. Not my main bet in the race but with the current top price (boostable to over 30/1) and the extra places on offer it might not be too risky. The worst that can happen is finish seventh...

Edit - the 7lb claimer is 4-11 for the trainer so far this season.
 
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I have a few shekels on Percy in the 5.15 Cheltenham @ 40/1 5places, back on good ground and the form of his Uttoxeter win has worked out well . Good conditional jock on too
 
I'm having a small go at Storm Goddess in the 3.00 - 33/1 6 places with Skybet

Slight doubt on the trip as she travelled best until the last behind Yeavering Belle at Ludlow, but is double that one’s price today, will love the ground and the trainer’s had a winner and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] (both fair prices) in this race recently
 
Trouser the cash 515c 20/1
Goodbye dancer 315cn 20/1
Alemaratalyoun 405d 20/1
Lesssaidthebetter 432g 20/1
Glasvegas 440d 22/1 4p
 
edgt said:
Rory Delargy of this parish has won the Racing Post tipster of the flat season with two 40/1 winners among his selections.
Well done to him and his followers.
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Top man is rory, though it’s incredibly disappointing that he is proving such a success on the Flat.

The Michael Dickinson of racing forums! :lol:
 
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First up today (might be my only longshot):

Cheltenham 3.15 The Devil's Drop 33/1 6pl - for similar reasons to WUWY yesterday (who would have been in the first six with a better ride, I reckon). This is his return from two years and two months’ absence so there has to be a chance that he'll need it and that might explain his market weakness (14/1 tops on Thursday). He was a novice back then and could well have improved a fair bit into last season. It looks like he’s been given a wee bit of grace by the handicapper for his absence, being only 2lbs higher than for his last win. With form figures reading 5/111/ people might end up wondering how a horse with that kind of winning profile could be offered at such long odds.
 
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Just went on to do a few each way bets and noticed that Skybet have removed the BOG on all races were there are enhanced places. When did this come into force or have I missed something.
 
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