The 2020 Longshot Thread

[Maruco]

So I don't forget, I added Beware the Bear at 28/1 with a boost for the Hennessy. He's not the usual profile for the race, but I'm not convinced it's a particularly good renewal.

Anyway the Festival Chase on Day 1 at the Festival is often a good guide to horses that run well in this, The Conditional and Vinndication both fitting the bill frm last year, but BtB had to miss the Festival last year, but his previous two runs at the Festival are a good indication of his ability compared to both The Conditional and Vinndication. If you look at how much each have gone up compared to their runs in the same race at the Festival BtB would be better off with both if taken literally.

BtB has won at Newbury before showing a liking for the course, and was 4th in this two years ago despite uncharacteristically jumping poorly when blundering his was round. He also did a very favourable bit of work alongside Santini at the course earlier in the week.

He's not my main bet, but I see him as a very good each way bet with 5 places available, and he's freely available at 25/1 or 28's with the boost, which is much too big.

 

[Double J]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

How’s your luck?

 

[Grasshopper]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

This is why we sometimes take chances on massive outers in novice chases.

Pishing myself laughing here.:lol:

 

[Double J]

This is why we take chances on massive outers in novice chases.

Pishing myself laughing here.:lol:

I put £1 e/W on cause of this call at 200/1 on 365. I owe you one. Some luck though haha

 

[moe]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.I don’t know what to say. I forgot I’d followed you with this one. Hope the horse that came down at the last is ok though. Big thank you. I’ve got some pennies to play with now!

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

 

[moe]

Oops: still getting to grips with this iPad. Thanks grass!!

 

[Marb]

Well done to all.

All's well than ends well.

 

[tiggers1972]

Proper lunge this one, but I’ve had an e/w pop at Sayar (150/1 - Powers) in the Beginners Chase at Catterick tomorrow - 4th race on the card.

Hasn’t shown a tap since his novice hurdle days with Willie Mullins, but was smart enough then to win a couple of races, including a Grade 3.

Ordinarily, I’d not get involved in any shape, but in a 5-runner novice chase, I think he’s worth a wee chance on just his second start for new connections.

I reckon you've got a rabbits foot wedged up your jacksy Nick!

 

[Desert Orchid]

Why couldn't the winner have round round the last fuckin fence???!!

Brilliant shout, Grasshopper!

 

[Grasshopper]

Why couldn't the winner have round round the last fuckin fence???!!

Brilliant shout, Grasshopper!

Better to be lucky than good, DO.

PS. Still laughing.:lol:

 

[Maruco]

I've just read this thread and watched the race. Brilliant tipping!!! :lol::lol::lol:

 

[Maruco]

Olly Murphy's form has been a concern, so I was hesitant to put this one up. In the 1.50 at Haydock the progressive Kid Commando 9/2 win is the obvious bet, and I may well back him, and I like Umbrigado 10/1 each way back in trip with a useful 7lbs off and with some additional relief from the handicapper after being beaten over an unsuitable staying trip at Haydock in the Stayers handicap hurdle at this fixture last year, and a fair enough race in the Martin Pipe at the Festival. I think he could still be nicely ahead of the handicapper over the trip. Plus there are others unexposed and likely to have been hiding under a bushel.

However, I really like Endlessly at 25/1. Progressive on soft ground, he wasn't so good on quicker on his reappearance, and most of Olly Murphy's have looked to be behind and need the run. However he was a decent horse on the flat having improved significantly for a wind op and a move to Murphy. He's since had four runs over hurdles looking very progressive in two of them before his low key seasonal debut. He steps up 3 furlong to 2m3f which you'd expect to suit having won over 1m6f twice on the flat after his switch of stables.

As I said you need to take the Olly Murphy form into account, and it's just possible he completely flops, but I like the booking of Paddy Brennan who rides handicap hurdles at Haydock well, and 25/1 each way s a much better price than I expected for a horse that I'd highlighted in my tracker for a race exactly like this on soft ground.

 

[Maruco]

Incidentally I'd be fairly certain that Desert Orchid will have Minella Charmer on his radar for this at 33/1?!

 

[Desert Orchid]

Incidentally I'd be fairly certain that Desert Orchid will have Minella Charmer on his radar for this at 33/1?!

 

[viking]

Saturday Ascot - Marracudja 25/1 - I planned to put this up on the day as a sickness insurance bet but I see Paul Kealy has gone and tipped it so the price will almost certainly contract. Hasn't been off an inch so far and is stupidly well handicapped on his best form, on my ratings.

Still 22/1 available with Paddy Power. Finding myse drawn to this one after his slightly unlucky run at Exeter for which he’s been dropped 4lb with his rider claiming another 7lb


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[Desert Orchid]

Still 22/1 available with Paddy Power. Finding myse drawn to this one after his slightly unlucky run at Exeter for which he’s been dropped 4lb with his rider claiming another 7lb

His best form is when up with the pace. Has been dropped out early lately. I suppose we'll know tomorrow before they get to Fence 1!

 

[Desert Orchid]

However, I really like Endlessly at 25/1. Progressive on soft ground, he wasn't so good on quicker on his reappearance, and most of Olly Murphy's have looked to be behind and need the run. However he was a decent horse on the flat having improved significantly for a wind op and a move to Murphy. He's since had four runs over hurdles looking very progressive in two of them before his low key seasonal debut. He steps up 3 furlong to 2m3f which you'd expect to suit having won over 1m6f twice on the flat after his switch of stables.

I've taken 28/1 Maruco. I have him top rated among the second-season novices in the race after Our Power and likely to be much improved this time round.

I might have missed him if I hadn't remembered somebody putting him up!

 

[Desert Orchid]

Marracudja now 14/1 tops and 11s in some places. Hopes rising...

 

[Grasshopper]

Have had a pop at Pour Joie (33/1 - Bet365) in Div 2 of the Huntindon maiden hurdle.

Good enough to win a modest bumper in early 2019, he’s hasn’t been on the track for a year (poor efforts on the Flat), but Ian Williams can place them to good effect, and interesting he starts this one off over hurdles in the better of the two maidens on offer.

 

[frontrunner]

Also at Huntington, Sovereign Duke 1.58 20/1Bet365
Was 6/4 fav in first hurdle race and coming to win when fell ( winner now 130) 2 easy runs to get handicapped. It was 96 on the flat and it’s a women’s race live on tv with the best jock on board

 

[Double J]

Really didn’t want to put this up, but I can’t help myself.

Surely Kalashnikov is worth a punt at 33s in the 2.25. Clearly a troubled horse, but a Supreme second, and one of the most hyped horses of the last couple of years.

It’s one almighty drift out to 33s, but I can’t help myself each way.

 

[Desert Orchid]

From earlier in the thread:

I think someone might have mentioned this one elsewhere. I'm not trying to steal their thunder, just acknowledging that they've already mentioned it.

In the Hennessy, I've taken 20/1 Black Op. I'm not a fan of Boy George but if he can get this one back on track he's possibly well-handicapped. He wasn't far behind Champ at the track last season and is another second-season chaser entitled to be 10lbs better this time round. He probably wasn't really there to win at Carlisle at the weekend and the timing of that race seems to fit in nicely ahead of sharpening him up by the end of the month.

I've taken two more nibbles at long odds in the race.

Lamanver Pippin 50/1 5pl - assuming TOTG runs LP will be 7lbs 'wrong', which might be offset at least partially by a good claimer, and I'm not convinced he'll even run, let alone stay the trip. He weakened badly late on in the NH Chase but is currently top-rated on RPRs (from his mark) and, as a second-season novice could improve considerably. Tizzard tends not to send donkeys for this race so if he makes the cut he might not be 50/1. They might campaign him to pick up a penalty as it would only be 4lbs so wouldn't affect his weight, in which case his price would probably contract anyway. It's worth some fun money early doors.

Potterman 40/1 5pl - this is Alan King's only entry for the race and is already in good form. Technically he is another second-season chaser but has already shown improved form, winning really nicely at Market Rasen and duly raised. However, this time last year, he was a 143-rated novice taking on the 151-rated Vinndication in an open £100k handicap chase at Ascot, beaten only five lengths. His rating subsequently came down and his new mark following his summer win leaves him a pound below that so, arguably, he might still have second-season improvement in him. It's possible the Scottish National is the target, as the trainer ran Dingo Dollar (twice) in this en route to its main objective at Ayr . But he also won this with that good grey Smad Place. Again, I have no idea if the plan is to run but he only needs six to come out to make the cut an he's near the top on RPRs.

(A wee reminder or those who don't use the facility - if you bring up the card at the RP site and click on the top of a column it will sort them for you.)

Black Op is now 10/1 tops and Potterman 20s so I can't say I've any regrets so far. They might come on Monday if one or both isn't declared.

I have to say I was quite taken by the way Beware The Bear looked against Santini in the public gallop at Newbury the other day but can leave him for now as he'll maybe want the ground to dry out a bit.

However, I have taken another longshot, again with no idea whether it will be declared on Monday but I suspect once people start focusing on the race it will contract.

Secret Investor 20/1 - This is the one that hammered Potterman before the latter went on to run so well the next time and went up 5lbs, which he doesn't have to carry in this race. Secret Investor went up for that but has, in the light of Potterman's performance, been raised another three pounds which he won't need to carry. Once punters realise he's 3lbs well in they won't let him go off at 20/1.

Lamanver Pippin went up 4lbs for his Cheltenham run but is 4lbs out of the handicap. I'm still not convinced he'll run and a few places are still going 50s. Again, we'll know more on Monday.

From a value perspective, though, I can't say I'm unhappy with any of those bets.

Edit
PS - FWIW, Lamanver Pippin and Potterman are currently the top two on RPRs. Yala Enki shares second top but I can see Secret Investor running in preference to him. Black Op isn't far off the top either.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've gone in again on Potterman at 20/1 for the Hennessy.

I'll be very surprised if his price doesn't halve by Saturday, especially if weather stays relatively dry but no way on God's good earth is this a 20/1 shot.

Even trained by (fuc)King Useless.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've now done my ratings for the Ladbrokes Trophy ("Hennessy" to me) and have backed yet another longshot but I reckon this one will be my nomination to win the race come the weekend: Ardlethen 33/1.

In a TV interview about a year ago, Skelton was asked for one horse to keep an eye on. This is the one he nominated, saying he really liked it.

It's chance might not be obvious (hence the price) but it was a 140 hurdler two seasons ago, so should have been a 150 novice chaser last season and a 160 chaser into this, his second season. He gets to race off 138.

First time up last season he beat Lisnagar Oscar, rated 145 when running in the 2019 Albert Bartlett. After not really taking to fences the latter came back and won the Stayers’ Hurdle in March. Ardlethen then took on the 164-rated Sam Spinner at Wetherby but couldn't match him on the run-in after challenging strongly at the last.

I suspect that might have been when the plan for this race was hatched.

He was slightly disappointing behind Danny Whizzbang in the good 3m novice chase at this meeting and is now 7lbs better off.

He was then hampered in running and lost a shoe at Warwick, for which he meets Two For Gold on 10lbs better terms.

He returned to Wetherby for the Towton and ran a good second to Newtide (which I backed in a good race last weekend because I have a good figure for it) but then disappointed in the Kim Muir, but that might have been part of the plan to get his mark down again.

He reappeared over 2½ miles at Carlisle behind Imperial Aura but wasn't really asked any serious questions, at the same time showing something like his better novice form, and we know what Imperial Aura did on Saturday. In the same race were Sam Brown (with whom he's 14lbs better off) and Black Op (12lbs) and his form works out at 14lbs below Imperial Aura, which would put the latter in this off 152 compared with the 157 he was rated on Saturday and for which he emerged with an RPR of 167.

He might just be an unreliable woof-woof but Skelton only had two in the race before today's declaration stage and he's left this one in.

I wouldn't be surprised if he won and went up enough to make the cut for the Grand National in which he might still be interesting.

Anyway, at 33/1 I can afford to pay to find out.

 

[Outsider]

I like your thinking on ardlethen.(I have a plan)..

I dont know really if LE BAGUE AU ROI will stay this far but off 145 and 33/1 boosted to 36.75 I will take a chance.
If you go back far enough,2018 kauto Nov chase,he beat topofthegame and santini.
Last time he jumped a lot better but i admit he has something to find with vindication and aye right.
I'm hoping R.Johnson might be back on it.