The 2020 Longshot Thread

frontrunner said:
Just went on to do a few each way bets and noticed that Skybet have removed the BOG on all races were there are enhanced places. When did this come into force or have I missed something.
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Yeah a sneaky move that was effective from Wednesday. Enables them to offer more extra place races apparently
Reckon it won’t be long before they remove BOG entirely as they don’t offer it on bets before 9 on day of race anyway


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Desert Orchid said:
First up today (might be my only longshot):

Cheltenham 3.15 The Devil's Drop 33/1 6pl - for similar reasons to WUWY yesterday (who would have been in the first six with a better ride, I reckon). This is his return from two years and two months’ absence so there has to be a chance that he'll need it and that might explain his market weakness (14/1 tops on Thursday). He was a novice back then and could well have improved a fair bit into last season. It looks like he’s been given a wee bit of grace by the handicapper for his absence, being only 2lbs higher than for his last win. With form figures reading 5/111/ people might end up wondering how a horse with that kind of winning profile could be offered at such long odds.
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My Jumping Prospects book says that they'll be giving him a spin over hurdles to see if his legs will hold up for a switch to chasing. Having said that I stopped backing the King horses on Saturdays [breaking the habit of a lifetime] having heard a stat that his horses don't tend to win on Saturdays. So I'm having to ignore that after the other week and follow you with that one as I used to back the King horses blind on a Saturday and it really hurts when they win.
 
viking said:
Yeah a sneaky move that was effective from Wednesday. Enables them to offer more extra place races apparently
Reckon it won’t be long before they remove BOG entirely as they don’t offer it on bets before 9 on day of race anyway
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Most of the BOGs don't kick in until 9 or 10am.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham 3.15 The Devil's Drop 33/1 6pl - for similar reasons to WUWY yesterday (who would have been in the first six with a better ride, I reckon). This is his return from two years and two months’ absence so there has to be a chance that he'll need it and that might explain his market weakness (14/1 tops on Thursday). He was a novice back then and could well have improved a fair bit into last season. It looks like he’s been given a wee bit of grace by the handicapper for his absence, being only 2lbs higher than for his last win. With form figures reading 5/111/ people might end up wondering how a horse with that kind of winning profile could be offered at such long odds.
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To be perfectly honest, I was very happy with the way he travelled and jumped through the race and quite fancied my barra with about a mile to go, thinking maybe he'd just aim to qualify for the final, but without ever asking the horse a question the jockey just eased off and let him coast from that point. A drop of another 5lbs will probably ensue and I'll be gobsmacked if he doesn't have a handicap in him before he goes chasing.
 
I’m sitting on 20-1 Sir Dragonet for the Melbourne Cup......am hoping he will repeat Cox Plate win! :ninja:
 
jinnyj said:
I’m sitting on 20-1 Sir Dragonet for the Melbourne Cup......am hoping he will repeat Cox Plate win! :ninja:
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Wow; good luck with that. I don't know how I came to miss Sir Dragonets adventures down under. I tend not to get attached to the O'Brien horses...so many of them with similar names etc etc but there was something about Sir Dragonet last season that I warmed to. A bit of quirkiness perhaps. Anyway somebody knew something the other night because he went blue across the board just before the race. Is he permanently in Australia now? Will you be staying up for the Cup? I will be, as per usual, but may be away and can't access the forum when I am [can read stuff but not post] so I'll give you my congratulations in advance. By the way, that new Australian lady jockey [Jaimie something] sounds pretty special....scuppered the chances of Sound getting a run in the Cup....
 
Desert Orchid said:
One for today.

Cheltenham 3.00 Whatsupwithyou 28/1 6 places - When I looked at the race yesterday I decided to look for second-season novices who might improve past the more exposed runners, usually a profitable ploy at this time of year. There's a handful of them in this race, of which WUWY is the longest price. His market weakness is sounding alarm bells but I'm sticking with it rather than be sick if does run as well as I hope. Not my main bet in the race but with the current top price (boostable to over 30/1) and the extra places on offer it might not be too risky. The worst that can happen is finish seventh...

Edit - the 7lb claimer is 4-11 for the trainer so far this season.
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From the RP Eyecatchers section:

Like Colin Tizzard, Ben Pauling doesn't appear to have his horses firing on all cylinders at present and he has a similar recent strike-rate.
However, this horse put in a fine effort in the 2m5f handicap hurdle won by Captain Tom Cat and, if it wasn't clear enough on his final start at Kempton last season, he is a horse crying out for a step up in trip.
A point-to-point winner over 3m, he was beaten only four and a half lengths here after challenging wide and towards the unfavoured stands' side. Related to some smart types, he is one to note for staying handicap hurdles with cut in the ground. [Maddy Playle]
 
The Russian Doyen

Third, Fontwell, Wednesday

This seven-year-old was making his first start for 347 days and, given Colin Tizzard's horses have been taking their time to come to hand (one winner from runners 25 in the last fortnight at the time of writing), this was a highly encouraging effort.

Under pressure a long way out on tiring ground, he stayed on dourly under Robbie Power to finish third to Chirico Vallis and Mr Pumblechook.

He's a far better chaser – he was fourth in the 2019 novice handicap at the Cheltenham Festival off 141 – and will go to the Paddy Power Gold Cup now as a well-handicapped, unexposed horse with a cracking each-way chance. He's a huge price at 50-1. [Maddy Playle]
 
Play the part 225P 100/1 is worth 50p ew.finished 14L behind Dreal deal and is 26lb better off and is 8/13 fav for this.
 
I backed mutamadel 255nm last night at 14s and there are 3 NRs and a 35p rule4 and so I cashed out and reinvested as its drifted to 25/1
 
It's a very quiet day for me.

I can't dig into the form in the way I'd like to, which is usually how I arrive at weird and usually-not-so-wonderful selections at big prices.

I fancy just two horses strongly today and the double pays 21/1: Capeland (3/1) and Whatmore (9/2). On my figures the former is a G2/G1 horse in a handicap. The latter represents the Imperial Aura-Galvin festival form and is entitled to improve a good bit again into his second season.
 
Ascot 3.40 Might Bite 20/1 5 places (and boostable).

I recently mentioned men in white coats coming to take me away.

Two years ago they would have been coming to take away anybody who suggested that Might Bite would get into a handicap off 152.

In many ways he reminds me of Wayward Lad, a brilliant horse at his best but couldn't get up the last 100 yards of the hill in the Gold Cup against inferior animals.

I still believe his exertions against Native River got to him even if he did win next time out and it's entirely possible he'll never be the same horse again. That's what his form is suggesting but it has certainly looked to me like he hasn't been put into races latterly, even cross-cuntry ones, and that has seen his mark drop to that of a mid-range handicapper.

Hendo was recently raving about how well he was doing in his training for the kid-on races so I'm hoping against hope - maybe that should be backing against hope - that he still retains most of his peak ability. If the different routine has him sparky again he would pick up this lot and carry them off 152.

At the price and with the extra places on offer I'm happy to pay to find out. We'll probably know early enough. If he races with or just off the pace he might at least be trying. If he's held up at the back with Nico lighting a Hamlet another day will probably be on the agenda.
 
Wetherby 12:25 - Chase The Wind (general 40/1)

A hateful race, full of geriatrics and inconsistent dodgepots. The selection probably qualifies as both, but so do several others in the field, and no reason that I can see, why this one should be such a massive outlier on price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 3.40 Might Bite 20/1 5 places (and boostable).

I recently mentioned men in white coats coming to take me away.

Two years ago they would have been coming to take away anybody who suggested that Might Bite would get into a handicap off 152.

In many ways he reminds me of Wayward Lad, a brilliant horse at his best but couldn't get up the last 100 yards of the hill in the Gold Cup against inferior animals.

I still believe his exertions against Native River got to him even if he did win next time out and it's entirely possible he'll never be the same horse again. That's what his form is suggesting but it has certainly looked to me like he hasn't been put into races latterly, even cross-cuntry ones, and that has seen his mark drop to that of a mid-range handicapper.

Hendo was recently raving about how well he was doing in his training for the kid-on races so I'm hoping against hope - maybe that should be backing against hope - that he still retains most of his peak ability. If the different routine has him sparky again he would pick up this lot and carry them off 152.

At the price and with the extra places on offer I'm happy to pay to find out. We'll probably know early enough. If he races with or just off the pace he might at least be trying. If he's held up at the back with Nico lighting a Hamlet another day will probably be on the agenda.
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Took 20/1 BOG last night for a sentimental bet, and agree with all your reasoning, DO - especially the bit about men i. White coats.

Should probably be double the price on recent runs, tbh, but basket-cases are unpredictable, and they do sometimes oblige.
 
MELBOURNE CUP. 4AM

STRATUM ALBION 33/1
WARNING 40/1
5 places
Did you know the prize money for 12th place is 86 grand.

My mate went to have a tattoo of an Indian on his back.half way through he said ' dont forget I want a big tomahawk '
The tattoo artist said ' give me a chance mate I've only just finished his turban'��
 
In tomorrow's Haldon Gold Cup I'm standing by Marracoudja at 40/1.

I watched it carefully last time and saw straight away that it was only there for the air. I suspect Not That Fuisse is there as a market decoy and if my figure for the selection is correct he only has the second-season improvers to worry about and it looks to me like Global Citizen is being prepped for something somewhere down the line, which reduces their numbers. I'll probably save on Esprit Du Large who might be one of the more likely lads.
 
I've taken a pop at two longshots in the Melbourne Cup:

Dashing Willoughby ew 7pl 66/1 - on the up earlier in the season. If he's been trained for this ever since, Balding is a man to have on your side.

Mustajeer ew 7pl 80/1 - former Ebor winner. Got a bad trip in this race last year when only 18/1 and proved the point winning next time up. Badly out of form this season but no 80/1 if he's back to his best.
 
I think someone might have mentioned this one elsewhere. I'm not trying to steal their thunder, just acknowledging that they've already mentioned it.

In the Hennessy, I've taken 20/1 Black Op. I'm not a fan of Boy George but if he can get this one back on track he's possibly well-handicapped. He wasn't far behind Champ at the track last season and is another second-season chaser entitled to be 10lbs better this time round. He probably wasn't really there to win at Carlisle at the weekend and the timing of that race seems to fit in nicely ahead of sharpening him up by the end of the month.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Hennessy, I've taken 20/1 Black Op. I'm not a fan of Boy George but if he can get this one back on track he's possibly well-handicapped. He wasn't far behind Champ at the track last season and is another second-season chaser entitled to be 10lbs better this time round. He probably wasn't really there to win at Carlisle at the weekend and the timing of that race seems to fit in nicely ahead of sharpening him up by the end of the month.
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I've taken two more nibbles at long odds in the race.

Lamanver Pippin 50/1 5pl - assuming TOTG runs LP will be 7lbs 'wrong', which might be offset at least partially by a good claimer, and I'm not convinced he'll even run, let alone stay the trip. He weakened badly late on in the NH Chase but is currently top-rated on RPRs (from his mark) and, as a second-season novice could improve considerably. Tizzard tends not to send donkeys for this race so if he makes the cut he might not be 50/1. They might campaign him to pick up a penalty as it would only be 4lbs so wouldn't affect his weight, in which case his price would probably contract anyway. It's worth some fun money early doors.

Potterman 40/1 5pl - this is Alan King's only entry for the race and is already in good form. Technically he is another second-season chaser but has already shown improved form, winning really nicely at Market Rasen and duly raised. However, this time last year, he was a 143-rated novice taking on the 151-rated Vinndication in an open £100k handicap chase at Ascot, beaten only five lengths. His rating subsequently came down and his new mark following his summer win leaves him a pound below that so, arguably, he might still have second-season improvement in him. It's possible the Scottish National is the target, as the trainer ran Dingo Dollar (twice) in this en route to its main objective at Ayr . But he also won this with that good grey Smad Place. Again, I have no idea if the plan is to run but he only needs six to come out to make the cut an he's near the top on RPRs.

(A wee reminder or those who don't use the facility - if you bring up the card at the RP site and click on the top of a column it will sort them for you.)
 
I believe I saw Potterman entered up for the Badger Ales this Saturday. The form of his last run finishing a place in front of Some Chaos was a decent run. Some Chaos has won since. They could re oppose on Saturday.

Ps, he was beaten 15 lengths by Vinndication, fyi, DO.
 
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