The 2020 Longshot Thread

The only mares ever to hold their form for any great length of time are Quevega and Catherine Deneuve (one for the snappers to Google there).

La Bague just looks like she’s gone at the game to me, Outsider.
 
Yes I'd agree. She'll travel as sweet as a nut looking like the winner for two and three quarter miles and then fade out of contention as soon as any pressure is applied.
 
In Friday's Long Distance Hurdle - Vision Des Flos 40/1

This race is all about Paisley Park. That one blip in his form figures would normally be the kind of thing it would pay to overlook but when they talk about heart issues it makes you think twice, especially at around 2/1.

I’d fancy Thyme Hill to find 10lbs on his novice form but that might only get him into third place before you take RJ into account.

McFabulous is another second-season novice but he has already found 10lbs and I’m not sure he can find another ten.

I really should leave the race alone but have taken 40/1 Vision Des Flos because there’s a fair chance APS will be campaigning for something like the Pertemps, Lisnagar Oscar might be over-rated, or Paisley Park himself under-performs.

At Aintree last season, VDF was a half-length third to Top Notch and Roksana, trying to give them 8lbs and 7lbs respectively. Top Notch had previously been rated 157 and Roksana was rated 152 when running in the Mares’ Hurdle at the festival and VDF gets 6lbs off the better horses in this race. Maybe they're accepting he isn't going to be that great a jumper of fences and are taking him back to the smaller obstacles as a result.

I don't think he should be any more than about 12/1.
 
When I looked at the entries for the Hennessey the other day I'm sure BALLYOPTIC wasnt amongst them.
I thought I'd lost my money(prob still will) but now hes drifted to 50s so I've gone in again.
D.O says he thinks skelton has planned this and I tend to think like that so I followed but I also think NTD is the same.he gave Ballyoptic half a race last time and then pulled it up and STD had said the horse felt good at home.he did a similar thing 2/3 years ago with his scottish national runner.never tried and was pulled up 3 out and then finished 3rd in SN at 50/1 funnily enough with Zac Baker riding.
So I'm hoping for a decent run at a big price.
 
Newbury 3.35 The Cashel Man 20/1 - I'm surprised this one has drifted enough to qualify as I backed it at something like 14/1 the other night in anticipation of a gamble so I'm slightly concerned that it's going in the other direction in the market and might do the same on the track.

However, he was a close second here in December in the Challow to Thyme Hill, no less, at level weights, 18L clear of the third. Would Thyme Hill be 20/1 in this race off 145?

Obviously a couple of moderate recent runs require forgiving but maybe those were to get his mark back down to today's 143.

I was happy to take shorter the other evening and happy to take longer this morning.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In Friday's Long Distance Hurdle - Vision Des Flos 40/1

This race is all about Paisley Park. That one blip in his form figures would normally be the kind of thing it would pay to overlook but when they talk about heart issues it makes you think twice, especially at around 2/1.

I’d fancy Thyme Hill to find 10lbs on his novice form but that might only get him into third place before you take RJ into account.

McFabulous is another second-season novice but he has already found 10lbs and I’m not sure he can find another ten.

I really should leave the race alone but have taken 40/1 Vision Des Flos because there’s a fair chance APS will be campaigning for something like the Pertemps, Lisnagar Oscar might be over-rated, or Paisley Park himself under-performs.

At Aintree last season, VDF was a half-length third to Top Notch and Roksana, trying to give them 8lbs and 7lbs respectively. Top Notch had previously been rated 157 and Roksana was rated 152 when running in the Mares’ Hurdle at the festival and VDF gets 6lbs off the better horses in this race. Maybe they're accepting he isn't going to be that great a jumper of fences and are taking him back to the smaller obstacles as a result.

I don't think he should be any more than about 12/1.
Click to expand...

Out to 66/1 this morning so I've gone in again.

Fortune favours and all that...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.35 The Cashel Man 20/1 - I'm surprised this one has drifted enough to qualify as I backed it at something like 14/1 the other night in anticipation of a gamble so I'm slightly concerned that it's going in the other direction in the market and might do the same on the track.

However, he was a close second here in December in the Challow to Thyme Hill, no less, at level weights, 18L clear of the third. Would Thyme Hill be 20/1 in this race off 145?

Obviously a couple of moderate recent runs require forgiving but maybe those were to get his mark back down to today's 143.

I was happy to take shorter the other evening and happy to take longer this morning.
Click to expand...

:blink:

40/1 now?
 
Final longshot (maybe :)) for the Ladbrokes Trophy - The Hollow Ginge 100/1, 6 places - he was an improving novice last season, going up to 144 for a tidy win at Leicester before finding the NH Chase a bit much. He didn't get past the first at Kelso on his reappearance but is entitled to make second-season improvement in due course. It's obviously a concern that Sam T-D goes to Bangor for a string of favourites but that doesn't mean 100/1 isn't value. A top-six finish is by no means out of the question.
 
Newbury 2.25 Millers Bank 33/1 & 20/1 w/out Marie's Rock - He was on a steep curve last season but disappointed on his return. He’s since had a wind op and wears a tongue-tie for the first time. As a second-season novice he can reasonably be expected to improve again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Final longshot (maybe :)) for the Ladbrokes Trophy - The Hollow Ginge 100/1, 6 places - he was an improving novice last season, going up to 144 for a tidy win at Leicester before finding the NH Chase a bit much. He didn't get past the first at Kelso on his reappearance but is entitled to make second-season improvement in due course. It's obviously a concern that Sam T-D goes to Bangor for a string of favourites but that doesn't mean 100/1 isn't value. A top-six finish is by no means out of the question.
Click to expand...
That was a very good shout Maurice.
 
Scottish League Cup tie today Ross County 22/1 to beat Celtic.

My beloved Hoops are smack, bang in the middle of the biggest confidence crisis since Tony Mowbray's short-lived reign as manager. They're shipping on average two goals per game (admittedly mainly in Europe) and lesser teams have now worked out how to exploit the ropey defence.

The back line completely disintegrated on the back of injuries to Ajer and Jullien and some Covid-enforced absences. Shane Duffy came in with disastrous consequences which shattered the confidence of the entire team.

I heard yesterday that the French players no longer talk to the manager but I don't trust the source. However, I was never keen on Lennon getting the job. My understanding is that David Moyes had accepted the offer on the condition that he could get his wife to agree but she refused and he had to say no.

I would happily take Gordon Strachan back as interim manager (can't see him taking the job full-time these days) until we find a permanent replacement. I've heard Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have been approached but I don't want them either. O'Neill did his bit first time round but was soon wangling his way out when the board refused to keep backing him with big-money buys, shamelessly using his wife's health issues as an excuse.

I've also been told Eddie Howe and Mauricio Pochettino are being/have been sounded out and I would take either of them. I imagine the board are just waiting until next month's Cup Final with Aberdeen is over before making their move. I do think Lennon deserves that shot at the domestic Quadruple Treble. Lose that and he is most definitely toast.

As for today, I expect Ross County to park two five-man buses and hope to hit on the counter. The home defence's confidence is so shot to pieces right now that I wouldn't trust them to "keep hens oot a midden" as we say up here.

Believe me, I will be shattered if this prediction comes true and even a hefty return would not change that. It will merely be weak compensation for my disappointment.

(I've also backed the draw in case I'm only 'half-right' but I will gladly lose this bet if we negotiate this hurdle even by dint of a last-minute penalty.)
 
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Its 4 and a half years since Celtic lost a domestic cup game, comfortable win, no matter how bad things are - and they really are no where near as bad as some are making out.
 
I know where you're coming from, BOS.

Going forward we can be very slick and on a going day we could easily score half a dozen. Man for man we are by miles the best team in the country but it's a team game and I've always believed in the importance of psychology (as does Lennon) and this is where we're lacking for some reason whereas in the past nine seasons it's been that mental strength that has been a key factor in the "relentlessness" that journos and opposing managers kept lauding.

Even the brotherhood of referees couldn't stop us.

I also fear very much for Lennon's mental health. I won't put on a forum what I was told privately last year but I've noticed at press conferences over the last wee while he's been sniffing a bit and that, for me, is a red alert.
 
I accept it would be a huge coup if it happened but at least with Celtic he would be guaranteed European football, which might appeal to him.

I was told at least two of the people approached asked for "digital packages" of the club's games this season. That would imply they are considering things but I wasn't given the identities of the two.
 
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I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being him.

If it's who I'm thinking of (the guy that had Hamilton at the top of the Scottish Premiership well into the season before being lured south?) then he is a Celtic fanatic and probably on their radar too.

Knowing our board, they will go for the cheapest option open to them.
 
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