Grand National - Cloth Cap 40/1, 5pl - has been very disappointing this season so the price is entirely understandable. However, he was 11/2f for the race last season when 8lbs well in off 148 and those disappointments have seen his mark drop from 162, to which he was raised after that Kelso romp, back down to 147.
There's been no shortage of debate on here about whether that 162 was merited but it still allows for everything else in that race running below form. The mark was later revised down to 156 so 147 still looks lenient.
He wouldn't be the first horse to put disappointing runs behind him in this race. Some of my most satisfying winners have had disappointing runs of form to forgive: Ben Nevis, Last Suspect, even Rule The World. And plenty other such types have won: Royal Athlete, Mon Mome, etc.
Factor in the Trevor Hemmings colours which once-a-year punters will latch on to and there's no way the horse goes off at 40s. They operated on his wind after he disappointed in the race last year and his poor form so far this year hasn't really surprised me. I imagine there will be a feeling of unfinished business with the race. He'll get in around the 10-5 mark, an ideal weight, and will almost certainly be top-rated across all ratings firms on the pick of last season's form.
He's looked like a non-stayer, I accept, but that's a look that's easy to arrange if you've got your eyes on a bigger prize. It's a punt I'm comfortable enough with and, who knows, once the weights are out he might just run well in something like the Ultima or back at Kelso.
…..and you thought you were joking!
