The 2022 Longshot Thread

IGN - Lord Lariat 80/1 - on a curve before the turn of the year and probably put away for this since then, from the same stable as last year's winner. Likely to race prominently and [hopefully] avoid trouble; after that, who knows...
 
barjon said:
If Ed Walker has got Caradoc back - he says he looks magnificent (although he is generally wont to describe his geese as swans) and he gets a 9lb swing with Migration for a 2 length beating - 22/1 in same race.
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Hope you backed this, barjon, got the fifth place and BOG. Fifth at 40/1.
 
:thumbsup:


One more for the Irish Nash - Aramax 66/1 - I keep coming back to this one, asking "why?". Then I checked the exchange and saw it was 150 so I logged in but there was no sign of the horse in the field. Then it reappeared at just 35, then disappeared again. When I checked the place market it was 1.01! Then 150 suddenly appeared again on the win market so I took that for a cuppla quid but the place remained at 1.01. I went in again with the mainstream bookies at 66s to 7 places. It won the 2020 Boodles off 138 so should have gone on to be a 148+ second-season hurdler and then eventually a 158+ second season chaser. It's off 139 here. For all I know it jumps like a piano stool and has about as much stamina as an asthmatic cheetah but it's a JP nag in an ultra-valuable handicap at a big price so the question becomes, "Fvck it, why not?"
 
2000 Guineas - Wexford Native 25/1 - I've no idea if the plan is to run but if it does I can't see it being this price, even with Native Trail in the race. Unraced at two, it came out and won a wee race at Navan but beat an AOB favourite despite running quite green in what looked a strongly run event. I suppose there's a chance it will go for the Irish Guineas instead (maybe to steer clear of NT) and it also holds a Derby entry (by Teofilo).
 
Kempton 3.30 - Throne Hall 28/1, four places (33s three places) - not badly handicapped on best form and Hollie Doyle is operating at 28% here this year. That's some strike rate.
 
Reared at the start, rushed forward to lead by the turn and no surprise to see the horse swallowed up from about two out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
:thumbsup:

Gordon Elliott just mentioned it as a possible ew outsider to back. Make of that what you will!
One more for the Irish Nash - Aramax 66/1 - I keep coming back to this one, asking "why?". Then I checked the exchange and saw it was 150 so I logged in but there was no sign of the horse in the field. Then it reappeared at just 35, then disappeared again. When I checked the place market it was 1.01! Then 150 suddenly appeared again on the win market so I took that for a cuppla quid but the place remained at 1.01. I went in again with the mainstream bookies at 66s to 7 places. It won the 2020 Boodles off 138 so should have gone on to be a 148+ second-season hurdler and then eventually a 158+ second season chaser. It's off 139 here. For all I know it jumps like a piano stool and has about as much stamina as an asthmatic cheetah but it's a JP nag in an ultra-valuable handicap at a big price so the question becomes, "Fvck it, why not?"
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Desert Orchid said:
IGN - Lord Lariat 80/1 - on a curve before the turn of the year and probably put away for this since then, from the same stable as last year's winner. Likely to race prominently and [hopefully] avoid trouble; after that, who knows...
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Very very well done.what a good winner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2000 Guineas - Wexford Native 25/1 - I've no idea if the plan is to run but if it does I can't see it being this price, even with Native Trail in the race. Unraced at two, it came out and won a wee race at Navan but beat an AOB favourite despite running quite green in what looked a strongly run event. I suppose there's a chance it will go for the Irish Guineas instead (maybe to steer clear of NT) and it also holds a Derby entry (by Teofilo).
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I had no idea today was a scratching stage or I'd have held off. It looks like WN is one of those scratched. Mildly annoyed with myself.
 
Moving on...

I'll copy this to the B365 GC thread.

At this early stage it looks like my main bet in the race will be Tea Clipper at 25/1, 4 places. I now think it's been trained for this race since it won a decent novice chase at Chepstow in the autumn.

That day, he beat three opponents rated 149, 147 and 146, priced at 11/4, 7/2 and 3/1 respectively, by 3L, 12L and 15L on decent ground over 2½ miles, racing prominently and jumping well.

Since then he's been ridden much more conservatively but if he's got the pace to lead at 2½ miles he can lead them the clichéd merry dance here. He's a winning 3m pointer and first season novice so I'm quite excited about his prospects.

That said, I'll be punting several, as per.
 
I'm hoping HEWICK will run with his 7lb claimer on.ive took 33/1 so I hope he runs.
I dont really know whether this is an improving horse or whether or not the hcapper over rated it.
Only had 6 starts and on its first run in this country was 2nd of 4 and got put up and then won at sedgefield over 3m 5f very easily.
Got put up to 150 after that which was a rapid rise.
He carried topweight in the midlands national and was still in with a chance when almost carried out by a loose horse (achilles) and whether or not that ruined his rhythm but he then made a mistake and was pulled up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Moving on...

I'll copy this to the B365 GC thread.

At this early stage it looks like my main bet in the race will be Tea Clipper at 25/1, 4 places. I now think it's been trained for this race since it won a decent novice chase at Chepstow in the autumn.

That day, he beat three opponents rated 149, 147 and 146, priced at 11/4, 7/2 and 3/1 respectively, by 3L, 12L and 15L on decent ground over 2½ miles, racing prominently and jumping well.

Since then he's been ridden much more conservatively but if he's got the pace to lead at 2½ miles he can lead them the clichéd merry dance here. He's a winning 3m pointer and first season novice so I'm quite excited about his prospects.

That said, I'll be punting several, as per.
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Sticking out at me like a sore thumb aswell.

A case of great minds thinking alike!
 
Sandown 3.00 - Rouge Vif 20/1 - I think this price is huge. I'm not suggesting the horse will win, just that the price is wrong. On my own figures he has a very similar chance to Sceau Royal (currently around 9/2). Granted, two very poor runs this season since moving to Nicholls require forgiving but he got a wind op soon after that latter run when the jockey reported that the horse's breathing was noisy. With only two places, I need one of the 'big two' to underperform, which isn't impossible at this time of year. Last season he was rated 164 and only 3/1 for the Tingle Creek. The top three here are rated 167, 165 and 162 so if the wind op has worked and he's able to run to his old form, he's entitled to be in the mix.
 
Sandown 3:32 - Step Back, 33/1- saves his best for Sandown (2/4) and new headgear. Claimer aboard, and he looks a Spring horse. He is 12, though. But 5 places looks appealing.

Have a good day, all.
 
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Uneasy in the market today, but I quite like the each-way chances of Fidux (25/1) in the Whitbread. He's the clear second-string, but he's back down to his last winning mark, the Scottish Nash was possibly a trip too far, and this slightly less exacting stamina test might suit him a little better.
 
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