The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Pun 3.40 - Na Caith Tobac 40/1, 6 places - smart show the time before last, looks well overpriced to me.
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Well, it was a big outsider but I have to say I was calling the jockey for everything from about a mile out. Gave up countless opportunities to improve his position and finding trouble. Shuffled back and gave up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2000 Guineas - Wexford Native 25/1 - I've no idea if the plan is to run but if it does I can't see it being this price, even with Native Trail in the race. Unraced at two, it came out and won a wee race at Navan but beat an AOB favourite despite running quite green in what looked a strongly run event. I suppose there's a chance it will go for the Irish Guineas instead (maybe to steer clear of NT) and it also holds a Derby entry (by Teofilo).
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Well, lo and behold, the same connections have another in the race available at 40/1, another Teofilo, also with Irish Guineas and Epsom Derby entries.

Bolger doesn't send them here unless he likes them, so if he prefers this one to Wexford Native I have to take out some sickness insurance on it!

Boundless Ocean 40/1
 
Saturday 2.25 - Cap Français 20/1 - might be worth a pop first time up with Doyle booked. Once rated 103, it’s interesting that he reappears in this valuable race off 93 without a prep.
 
Hard to be confident in such a competitive event, and my gut-feel is he probably wants a bit further, but I've had a small each-way swing at Stand Off (16:15 - general 33/1) in the novice handicap chase.

He is only 5lbs better off with Gevrey for a 9 3/4L beating last time, but he was badly hampered 2-out that day, and whilst he stayed on well enough, he wasn't able to recover (may not have won anyway, but would have finished much closer). Gevrey is an 11/1 shot today (so not entirely unfancied), and their relative prices look a little out of whack to me.

Stand Off is off bottom-weight but gets into the handicap, and with plenty of pace being a reasonable expectation, I'm hoping this hold-up yoke he can go past tiring horses in the last couple of furlongs and hit the places.
 
Berkshire shadow 2000 g 80/1

Has about 4L to find with native trail,over 7f but was staying on.(so was the winner)
 
Sunday, Nwm 1.50 - Red Verdun 25/1 (boosted) - ran today so if they take it out there's no harm done but at the moment Harry Davies is booked to take off 7lbs. I'm a great believer that claims are more valuable the further the trip so the claim could be quite significant here. The horse is already on a good mark and if the boy is worth his allowance then the price is wrong. I'm happy to pay to find out and, as I say, if they scratch him there's no harm done.
 
EASYLAND 310P 33/1
Now well hcapped and maybe the plan is to get lower but at that price I will have a dabble.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday 2.25 - Cap Français 20/1 - might be worth a pop first time up with Doyle booked. Once rated 103, it’s interesting that he reappears in this valuable race off 93 without a prep.
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No money for the horse, it would seem, and it's out to 40s with a couple of firms. I've gone in again with Hills at 33/1 plus the boost as they are going four places. Infrapenny and all that...
 
Nwm 1.50 - Summerghand 20/1 - I have him top on his best form and most of his best form is here so 20/1 strikes me as far too big. Not my main bet in the race but a solid ew shout, I reckon.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday 2.25 - Cap Français 20/1 - might be worth a pop first time up with Doyle booked. Once rated 103, it’s interesting that he reappears in this valuable race off 93 without a prep.
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Desert Orchid said:
No money for the horse, it would seem, and it's out to 40s with a couple of firms. I've gone in again with Hills at 33/1 plus the boost as they are going four places. Infrapenny and all that...
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Worth two winners :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
2000G - Eydon 40/1 (plus the boost) - gave the 107-rated favourite a comfortable 7lbs beating in the Feilden last week coming from the back off a slow pace. If the form can be taken at face value, it makes him a 115 horse. That would put him on a par with anything else bar the favourite. If he's worth a sectional mark-up, even better. He might be more of a 10f-12f type but if he had the pace to run that kind of figure over nine furlongs he might be good enough to be in the mix for the placings and, God forbid, Native Trail might pick up a minor issue that forces him to miss the race. It looks like it might be happening to Inspiral in the fillies' race.

Edit - the sections at the RTV site have him posting the fastest time for each of the last five furlongs, completing those five furlongs in 56.9s. That's pretty decent. Native Trail was 57.54s.

newmarket_20220414_1435 (racing-uk-production.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com)

Usually a closing % of 108.68 would earn a mark-up of a few pounds.
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Good 4th D.ran well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In for a penny...

I've also taken Eydon for the Derby at 33/1. Dosage strongly suggests he'll stay:

EYDON
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(IRE) b. C, 2019 {2-d} DP = 1-0-9-12-2 (24) DI = 0.30 CD = -0.58

Wouldn't have minded being able to get the double at those prices!
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Still 33s for Epsom in a place or two.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2000 Guineas - Wexford Native 25/1 - I've no idea if the plan is to run but if it does I can't see it being this price, even with Native Trail in the race. Unraced at two, it came out and won a wee race at Navan but beat an AOB favourite despite running quite green in what looked a strongly run event. I suppose there's a chance it will go for the Irish Guineas instead (maybe to steer clear of NT) and it also holds a Derby entry (by Teofilo).
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Runs at the Curragh (2.40) tomorrow. I've taken out some sickness insurance at 5/1. Obviously not a qualifier for the thread but just pointing it out.
 
Cheshire Oaks - Makinmedoit 66/1 - one or two places are going 4 places (33/1) but I'll wait until the morning to see if they push her out before going in again. It's a pretty duff race and the minor places at worst look up for grabs. I'm not sure this one should be any longer than 20/1 at the most. She's had a run and won (a diddy three-runner race, but it's a run and a win) and should improve again for the step up in trip (Golden Horn/Galileo). She's close on the ratings to horses priced at 9/1 and 11/1 but doesn't have their fancy entries. But this can be a strange race.
 
Just saw a post on Facebook about Eydon. Someone wrote that they were looking at Eydon after the race and his lad said to him ‘see, everybody else loves you, not just me’. I was really taken by the horse watching him on tv before the race but now I’m smitten. I want him and his lad to win everything. Definitely going to be my favourite horse this season.
 
VICTORIA CUP saturday.

I'm almost over the cliff but have to do ORBAAN 50/1 boosted to 55/1 betfair 6 places.

Also done Stablemate DARKNESS 25/1 and Tudhope rides for Fanshawe.

And I put BALDOMERO 40/1 boosted to 44.82/1 w.hill.in my alerts so I have to do him as well.
 
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