The 2022 Longshot Thread

The Cup & Vase tomorrow:

Reshoun 25/1, 5 places
Mancini 20/1, 4 places

Both have chances on my figures, both owned by Koukash and his only runner in each race.

I've also doubled them at 25s x 18s for 493/1 but will obviously settle for both being placed :lol: That in itself would qualify for the thread at 29/1 the place double.
 
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Just squeezing this one in before a van turns up and guys in white coats ring the doorbell...

Ascot 2.20 - Two Auld Pals 150/1 - Jim Goldie loves raiding Ascot for decent races so why on earth is he sending this horse all the way down there from deepest Renfrewshire for its career debut in a Listed race, with Danny Tudhope booked?

I remember several years back putting up a similar type - trained in the north, wore black & green checks, debuted in something like the Ormonde at 66s, began with a 'C', I think, but donald-ducked if I can remember its name, Graham Lee rode it. It eventually did show itself to be listed/group class. I think its rating went up to 116 at one stage.

Maybe they're trying to get it into the Ebor off something just above 100 (in order to make the cut) and feel they don't have time to bring it through diddy ranks.

Anyway, I just keep asking myself why, why why and am prepared to back Goldie's judgment at 150/1.
 
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Haydock 2.25 - Dandy Mag 33/1 - Not beaten far off 148 in last year's Pertemps Final for Willie Mullins. Two quiet runs for Fergal O'Brien this season have got his mark down to 139 and this is his first run since wind surgery in February. If the op has got him back to his old form he's the one to beat here. Not my main bet in the race but the price is too long, in my opinion.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just squeezing this one in before a van turns up and guys in white coats ring the doorbell...

Ascot 2.20 - Two Auld Pals 150/1 - Jim Goldie loves raiding Ascot for decent races so why on earth is he sending this horse all the way down there from deepest Renfrewshire for its career debut in a Listed race, with Danny Tudhope booked?

I remember several years back putting up a similar type - trained in the north, wore black & green checks, debuted in something like the Ormonde at 66s, began with a 'C', I think, but donald-ducked if I can remember its name, Graham Lee rode it. It eventually did show itself to be listed/group class. I think its rating went up to 116 at one stage.

Maybe they're trying to get it into the Ebor off something just above 100 (in order to make the cut) and feel they don't have time to bring it through diddy ranks.

Anyway, I just keep asking myself why, why why and am prepared to back Goldie's judgment at 150/1.
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I've gone in again on this one at 40/1 for a top 3 finish. That's the equivalent of 320/1 in the open market (since I don't really anticipate the win). I did think about taking 80/1 without the favourite but they were only going two places on the bet.
 
Victoria Cup - Gioia Cieca 40/1, 8 places - Dalgleish is a good target trainer, his horses often run well in the top handicaps and on my figures this one has the overall profile of an improver and would only have to find three or four pounds to have a winning chance. Available at 50s to fewer places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 2.25 - Dandy Mag 33/1 - Not beaten far off 148 in last year's Pertemps Final for Willie Mullins. Two quiet runs for Fergal O'Brien this season have got his mark down to 139 and this is his first run since wind surgery in February. If the op has got him back to his old form he's the one to beat here. Not my main bet in the race but the price is too long, in my opinion.
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Hiya DO. Yes, I've backed DM too.

I've had what I think is a good study and I've come up with three at fancy prices that I'll bet on:

Dandy Mag - 2.35 Hay 33/1 Ew

It's only three runs ago ago that he ran behind Koshari under an OR of 143. and the run previous to that at Cheltenham behind Mrs Milner off 148 was better still.
Tomorrow he's running off 139.

He's only had two runs since and he last was in The Cleeve; he was never going to win that.

He's got his ground, had a wind op and has the tongue-tie on for the first time. He looks value, I reckon.

Mount Olympus - 2.45 Nott 14/1 Ew

He won two runs ago over course and distance and that performance looks good in the context of this race.

Star Of Orion - 4.05 Ascot 22/1 Ew

I love to see a 4yo that put in good runs as a 3yo against older horses and Star Of Orion demonstrates that with his run last July in the International over course and distance. That was a cracking run against some hardened campaigners. I think he's got a reasonable weight and a reasonable chance so the ew odds look good.

Good luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheshire Oaks - Makinmedoit 66/1 - one or two places are going 4 places (33/1) but I'll wait until the morning to see if they push her out before going in again. It's a pretty duff race and the minor places at worst look up for grabs. I'm not sure this one should be any longer than 20/1 at the most. She's had a run and won (a diddy three-runner race, but it's a run and a win) and should improve again for the step up in trip (Golden Horn/Galileo). She's close on the ratings to horses priced at 9/1 and 11/1 but doesn't have their fancy entries. But this can be a strange race.
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Taken out of that race and runs at Lingfield today. Nowhere near 66s though.
 
Star of Orion was on my tracker last year and he was absolutely fucked by the handicapper after his second to Danyah in that big handicap on King George day. Needs his mark to ease but will win again if that happens.
 
Fenney Brook 2.40 Lud

Seen a number of Daly runners step up on around their 5th or 6th run over the years, especially over two and a half + at hurdles. It's possible that today will be the day with this one. 28 Bet365 (currently) to find out. Could go either way from there. If you go back to the Uttoxeter 2 miler, Fenney was running an OK race (at a stage in her career when you may not have expected her to) and to my eyes might well have fought out 3rd if not overstepping/stumbling. The 2nd went on to run a promising 3rd in an ascot handicap to a winner that went on to win a Sandown grade 2 by a street, and the 2nd ran close enough to JPR One to be classed as a respectable run.

So, the ability may be there. Last race was after a 300 day+layoff so arguably can be discounted. And this is a class 5. Perhaps would have preferred it to be a mares handicap and maybe one of those will be the ultimate target.

Charming Getaway (lower in the betting, unfortunately) is another that will likely show more. Might even be today.
 
chaumi said:
Fenney Brook 2.40 Lud

Seen a number of Daly runners step up on around their 5th or 6th run over the years, especially over two and a half + at hurdles. It's possible that today will be the day with this one. 28 Bet365 (currently) to find out. Could go either way from there. If you go back to the Uttoxeter 2 miler, Fenney was running an OK race (at a stage in her career when you may not have expected her to) and to my eyes might well have fought out 3rd if not overstepping/stumbling. The 2nd went on to run a promising 3rd in an ascot handicap to a winner that went on to win a Sandown grade 2 by a street, and the 2nd ran close enough to JPR One to be classed as a respectable run.

So, the ability may be there. Last race was after a 300 day+layoff so arguably can be discounted. And this is a class 5. Perhaps would have preferred it to be a mares handicap and maybe one of those will be the ultimate target.

Charming Getaway (lower in the betting, unfortunately) is another that will likely show more. Might even be today.
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Very nice winner,well done.
 
Liked your reasoning, chaumi, so followed you in at 28/1.

Fair chuffed for you, the thread and obviously my own accounts.

I really do think the thread punches well above its weight.

Now you have a 100% record to lose :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Liked your reasoning, chaumi, so followed you in at 28/1.

Fair chuffed for you, the thread and obviously my own accounts.

I really do think the thread punches well above its weight.

Now you have a 100% record to lose :lol:
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:-) Beginners' luck, for sure. I don't know what it was going at on the exchange 3 out, but it was sure to have two zeros and maybe 3 after the first number!

But you can't get better fun than that in a Class 5 at Ludlow! I love it when they do that :-)

It may be 2 or 3 years till a Daly novice gets in a similar position again, so let's keep some powder dry! I'm glad you backed it.
 
Pop Dancer 2.40 Wolves

Didn't do too much last year as a 4 year old, although there are debatable excuses for some of the runs.

As a 3 year old, ran Lord Riddiford close enough in a class 2 at Wolves under Luke Morris (tomorrow's rider). LR may have been at his peak at the time (as a 5YO) however has run a number of good enough races at 5f class 2 since.The second that day - Top Breeze - has also run plenty of good races at Class 2 level.

One run for PD this season - a Class 3 at Epsom. Seemed to be going OK though not looking like getting seriously involved when looking slightly short of room a bit a furlong or so out. Watching it, it's hard to tell the real impact. It does look as if the jockey stopped riding (very) briefly and maybe there was more left but Pop couldn't get momentum again. Either way, it was the first run for about 6 months....and actually going by the way everything else finished. Pop may have been on the 'wrong' side of the track.

Looking at the opposition tomorrow, half are probably not up to more than good class 5 standard (or lower). A few others maybe class 4. One or two possibly can run OK in slightly higher at some point.

So, is Pop Dancer about to peak? If he can reproduce the 3yo form and show some improvement with age, back at Wolves in a Class 5 may be a good place to find out.

Betting is all over the place.

Sadly the 28s Hills and Corals disappeared while I was investigating. 365 was already lowest at 16 (and checking, they'd pushed out from 10's! update: just gone 20).So, 22s BF Sportsbook and PP are best currently. There's nothing on the Exchange worth looking at right now, maybe in the morning.

All in all, a leap of faith needed. But Tony Carrol knows how to do it, and Like Morris knows how to do it. We have to find out if Pop Dancer knows!
 
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chaumi said:
Fenney Brook 2.40 Lud

Seen a number of Daly runners step up on around their 5th or 6th run over the years, especially over two and a half + at hurdles. It's possible that today will be the day with this one. 28 Bet365 (currently) to find out. Could go either way from there. If you go back to the Uttoxeter 2 miler, Fenney was running an OK race (at a stage in her career when you may not have expected her to) and to my eyes might well have fought out 3rd if not overstepping/stumbling. The 2nd went on to run a promising 3rd in an ascot handicap to a winner that went on to win a Sandown grade 2 by a street, and the 2nd ran close enough to JPR One to be classed as a respectable run.

So, the ability may be there. Last race was after a 300 day+layoff so arguably can be discounted. And this is a class 5. Perhaps would have preferred it to be a mares handicap and maybe one of those will be the ultimate target.

Charming Getaway (lower in the betting, unfortunately) is another that will likely show more. Might even be today.
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I looked at this and thought Jesus he's on to something here. Unfortunately that was the last thought I gave it. Well done.
 
York wednesday 6f sprint hcap

SUMMERGHAND 20/1 hcapper has given this a chance off 103.
Ran in the stakes race clipper logistics on the same day last year and finished 4th.
 
Update on Pop Dancer today. Now no bigger than 14 anywhere, with 12 in places. 20 bet365 lasted about 30 seconds last night and was back in to 12 in the blink of an eye.

So I'd say no longer qualifies as a longshot and one to watch now in the hope gets well beaten (with a 'not obvious' excuse :-) )
 
Wednesday, York 1.50 - On To Victory 20/1 - top on my figures and I like the booking of Crowley for it. It won the 2020 November Handicap off 1lb lower (100 here) and franked the form on his reappearance run last season when splitting Hukum (114) and Morando (104) and the King stable is in good form this spring on the Flat. The horse has had a wee break since last seen over hurdles and if it's freshened him up he can outrun his odds and on his best form could win. Not my main bet in the race, though.
 
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Wednesday, York 2.25 - Devilwala 33/1 - did someone mention this recently on another thread? I have a vague recollection of seeing it mentioned somewhere. Anyway, apologies if anyone else has put it up and feel I'm jumping on their bandwagon. It isn't my intention. Devilwala started last season a Guineas prospect off 113 after being beaten less than three lengths in the Dewhurst for Ralph Beckett. He was beaten less than six lengths in the Craven but his form nosedived thereafter and he moved to David Loughnane in the summer. His form went further downhill and his rating accordingly. Gelded at the start of this year, he moved to Easterby and showed some promise at Ripon over a mile. I’m just curious that he turns up here looking, on jockey bookings, like the stable’s main hope when they had Count D’Orsay run so well last week. If the price goes out or place terms improve by Wednesday morning I can always go in again :)
 
Wednesday, York 3.35 - Ching Shih 20/1 - this is more down to gut instinct than anything in the filly's racing career. She holds all the big entries so is clearly well enough thought of and her dam won this race first time up without a rating before going off at 9/1 in Taghrooda's Oaks. Crowley became the dam's regular pilot after that so it's interesting that he now rides the daughter for the same owner. The dam, Madame Chiang, ended up with an OR of 113 after winning the Champion F & M race at Ascot that season, ridden by Crowley.
 
chaumi said:
Update on Pop Dancer today. Now no bigger than 14 anywhere, with 12 in places. 20 bet365 lasted about 30 seconds last night and was back in to 12 in the blink of an eye.

So I'd say no longer qualifies as a longshot and one to watch now in the hope gets well beaten (with a 'not obvious' excuse :-) )
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3rd and very well backed..
 
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