The 2022 Longshot Thread

desert orchid said:
saturday, doncaster 3.20 - storm control 20/1, 5 pl - i thought this one had lost the plot, to be honest, but he returned to form in some style last week and the 10lbs claimer has an impressive record. Yes, he rode the horse last time but it may be that the horse is just back in form, in which case it could be thrown in on its best form. Not my main bet in the race but certainly worth keeping onside at the prices and place terms.
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fvck me!!!!!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Doncaster 3.20 - Storm Control 20/1, 5 pl - I thought this one had lost the plot, to be honest, but he returned to form in some style last week and the 10lbs claimer has an impressive record. Yes, he rode the horse last time but it may be that the horse is just back in form, in which case it could be thrown in on its best form. Not my main bet in the race but certainly worth keeping onside at the prices and place terms.
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Unlucky there looked to have it in the bag at the last


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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Doncaster 3.20 - Storm Control 20/1, 5 pl - I thought this one had lost the plot, to be honest, but he returned to form in some style last week and the 10lbs claimer has an impressive record. Yes, he rode the horse last time but it may be that the horse is just back in form, in which case it could be thrown in on its best form. Not my main bet in the race but certainly worth keeping onside at the prices and place terms.
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Oh the pain.
 
Following on from the Noted in Running thread, I've backed Vanillier for the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I still fancy him to win whichever novice chase he goes for this season and if he does he'll be 10/1 for next year's Gold Cup.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Following on from the Noted in Running thread, I've backed Vanillier for the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I still fancy him to win whichever novice chase he goes for this season and if he does he'll be 10/1 for next year's Gold Cup.
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The only race he will run in is the National Hunt Chase.
 
255 sandown Saturday

Ask dillon 25/1 has caught the eye a couple of times.you have to forgive him his last run.but with claimer aboard could outrun its odds.
Not my main bet,that's Dan's le vent.took 14s.
 
AD owes me a bit, but whether this is the time I've no idea. Talking about no idea I’ve got Dans Le Vent popped up in my tracker for this race, but quite why I’ve no idea :)


PS: oh yes, it’s a Noted in Running horse mentioned by Outsider (#75) :D and I didn’t see he’d mentioned it earlier as his main bet. Me bad.
 
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I have three strong fancies for tomorrow. Individually they don't qualify for the thread but I'm backing them in a three cross and all four elements do qualify.

San 2.55 Ree Okka 13/2
San 3.30 Linelee King 4/1
Leo 2.45 Enjoy D'allen 11/1

The doubles pay 36.5/1, 77/1 and 59/1, and the treble pays 389/1.

I'm more than happy to splash out a bit on them.
 
Marb said:
I have found one worth a go at tomorrow. My forms hit and miss so take it or leave it..most firms offering 4 places for the 12 runners currently scheduled to go to post.

Fairyhouse 2.20 Batcio (20/1) is the oldest horse to go to post at 10 years of age but he hasn't been overraced in his career so far and truth be told his best form came with his last two chase wins last summer. He beat The West's Awake about 3 lengths and that horse was third behind a couple of Batcios rivals tomorrow in Poseidon and Grange Walk.

That win was the second time Batcio scored with a light weight and he gets these circumstances again tomorrow although he is now in a higher grade of race. Given how he won that day when beating The West Awake he did it comfortably and I feel he is an excellent each way price here tomorrow. He can be in the shake up.
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Batcio is out again in the 3.50 at Leopardstown tomorrow.. Not 25/1 for this race though! A sporting bet for me.

I second DO on his selection Linelee King who has a big chance if you put a line through his last run.

We'll also find out if Frero Banbou can frank his own form and his last win over Eclair D'ainay.. I am hoping so although I know Euro thinks the opposite to me.
 
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In the 3m hcap hurdle 245L tomorrow POUR PAVORE 33/1 would probably need to win this to get into the pertemps final after finishing 6th in a qualifier as it's only rated 122 in Ireland.
That was its first go at 3m.
 
Black Anthem 25/1 + is a mile wrong at the weights today in a 4 horse race
However I was told they have gotten to the bottom of his breathing problems and this is one shockingly bad race.

He will love the ground and while PN's should win a single at anything up to 40/1 on the machine should be available
Plus 9/1 to be placed is available
 
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3.15 L Conflated. See DO has put this up also. Still improving and in a field where plenty have question marks against them looks well overpriced.

3.50 L Scheu Time. Like the above the favourite has had plenty of chances . Ground against selection on latest and was bang there turning in against Sporting John in November. Strong run 2m2f is up his street. Yard in good form too.
 
I was all set to take 33/1 Vadaly in the Spring Juvenile yesterday, but figured I'd wait until it went out to 40's. It has - obviously - been backed overnight, and is now around a 201 shot.

She clearly isn't fancied to beat Vauban based on jockey bookings (or probably Icare Allen either, tbh), but I wasn't hugely impressed with Vauban FTO (looked like a horse who needed further to me, for all that the form has worked out), and I'm prepared to take my chance on her today. She won cosy enough on her only start win France, gets a handy bit of weight, and Mullins has presumably seen enough to start her off at this kind of level.
 
Outsider said:
255 sandown Saturday

Ask dillon 25/1 has caught the eye a couple of times.you have to forgive him his last run.but with claimer aboard could outrun its odds.
Not my main bet,that's Dan's le vent.took 14s.
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You've done well with DLV, Outsider. I think Simon Rowlands has brought about the contraction in price.

I thought about 25/1 AD the other day but let it go. Glad I did - I just took 40s (boosted to 45s) but only 5 places offered.
 
Wetherby 2.30 - Noble Yeats 20/1 w/o fav - only 4lbs behind Ahoy Senor on ORs and gets 5lbs. Disappeared out the back of the telly last time so that run needs forgiving but it probably accounts for his being overpriced here.
 
redundant pal said:
3.15 L Conflated. See DO has put this up also. Still improving and in a field where plenty have question marks against them looks well overpriced.

3.50 L Scheu Time. Like the above the favourite has had plenty of chances . Ground against selection on latest and was bang there turning in against Sporting John in November. Strong run 2m2f is up his street. Yard in good form too.
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Thanks. Backed it at 50./ last night!
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have three strong fancies for tomorrow. Individually they don't qualify for the thread but I'm backing them in a three cross and all four elements do qualify.

San 2.55 Ree Okka 13/2
San 3.30 Linelee King 4/1
Leo 2.45 Enjoy D'allen 11/1

The doubles pay 36.5/1, 77/1 and 59/1, and the treble pays 389/1.

I'm more than happy to splash out a bit on them.
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Fvcking awful.
 
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