The 2022 Longshot Thread

Assume I'm getting paid for FE being fourth. Just not sure about the non-runner's impact.

Still, it was a grand wee journey :)
 
A belated thank you for putting me onto Rohaan, DO. I like previous winners of races so much that I had £3 on Stratum in the last, too!
 
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chaumi said:
I looked at 16.59 and figured Rohaan might be the closest you'll ever see to a good thing in a Wokingham. Got it on with seconds to spare. Nice one, Desert. I missed the 25s but 18-1 got me out of trouble on the day.
My internet connection keeps going down and it happened yet again just as I was trying to put a bet on Apollo something or other which had gone blue on oddschecker. So it wasn’t until after the race till I could find out if I had backed Rohaan. Thankfully I had. With having to sort out my crumbling brickwork and a dodgy internet connection I’ve relied on this thread ( and oddschecker when possible) to get bets on early. I wish I’d been able to devote more time to the racing and must admit to having enjoyed it more than Cheltenham, the main reason being it’s been great to see a variety of owners, jockeys and trainers winning races.
Good luck with the next ones.
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2.25 Southwell - Tickity Amber 25/1 small e/way, this fillies mother won a bumper first time out as a 4y old. Trainer in form and has a 30% place rate with bumper runners over the last 5 years including 3 winners.
 
swedishchef said:
2.25 Southwell - Tickity Amber 25/1 small e/way, this fillies mother won a bumper first time out as a 4y old. Trainer in form and has a 30% place rate with bumper runners over the last 5 years including 3 winners.
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Caught my eye, too, Swedish. Especially the blood line with both Beat Hollow and Tikkanen making an appearance, but yeah the Stuart Edmunds/Gethings link is another positive. You might not expect a youngster with that line to be doing much till he/she gets softer ground and probably further (especially if there is any strong Tikkanen influence). Though maybe the mum will offset that and well noted.

I had it marked as a 'hope this one goes down and then we'll get it in a 2/2 and a half mile maiden or novice hurdle later in the year, perhaps on heavy ground.' An Edmunds hurdler ridden by Gethings on heavy ground is a 40-1 shot to savour!

There are a handful of other trainers you could easily see landing this. Emma Lavelle's took the eye and could be anything. Tom Lacey would definitely not be a surprise. Plenty more. Indeed, I could only rule out four of the fourteen!

Good luck, will watch with interest.

Edit: BTW just noticed - Mum didn't just win a bumper FTO.....it was a Newbury bumper with runners from many of the usual suspects (can't remember, I may even have backed her) ....and followed by a good run in a Cheltenham class 4.

The plot thickens!
 
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Wise Eagle ( the legend that is ) is down to run in the Northumberland Plate Just going to check his price. Go on Eagle…!….33/1
 
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Lady Wolf 6.20 Newton Abbott 80-1 B3

Are you joking me? 80-1 in a 6-runner race where you can rule two out with reasonable confidence.

Look at the Class 3 two races ago. Lady got close enough to 1-6 fav Largy G over the same CD. The fourth (Henderson) won a (all be it weakish) handicap since. The second could yet prove she's up to reasonable handicap level in future.

The Skelton runner has been thrashed by Largy G in the past. That doesn't necessarily mean a lot in the context of this. Of course, she looks the one to beat and it will be tough. She could win 20 lengths and no one will blink. The Ben Case runner can't be underestimated, equally Tom George's.

Snowden is down as saying his will improve for the run. We'll take that to not mean the improvement will come off the back of a FTO win. By Shirocco, you can expect this one to be going in somewhere over the summer/autumn. Hopefully, not today. We'll assume the Polly Gundry horse will need the experience.

So..Lady's last run over 3 miles +...she ran out of steam. Have to ignore. Back at the distance of the previous race, 80-1 EW to get in the first two seems worth a go. It's been a long time since Haywood got me a 100-1 + winner, it's only a matter of time till the next one. I'd have preferred that opportunity to present itself in a class 4 or 5 handicap (and it may well do)...but it's not too hard to visualize a future Lady Wolf running at Class 3 handicap level.

EDIT just gone 100-1
 
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You’ve convinced me to use a free bet on this one. The race she ran in behind Largy G was a slow enough time for good ground so may well have been flattered but she must have a chance of being in the first two


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Northumberland Plate - Uber Cool 40/1 - I'm hopeful that the listing of a jockey (Robert Tart, stable jockey) at this point is a sign that this is an intended runner. The lack of a run this season is a slight worry but Jane Chapple-Hyam had a terrific Ascot with two winners and a 40/1 second from three runners so the stable in general is at least in blinding form and the horse did win on its reappearance last season after two and a half years off. I reckon the horse should be less than half that price.
 
Oh, it's from Lady Wolf.

She said '' yeah, Viking was kind of right, I did have more of a chance in that race cos they went quite slow. But still, if it hadn't been so hot I would have run them much closer today.

Sorry, but I will make it up. Wait till I get in a handicap, this one might mean you'll still get 33 and they won't see which way I went!''
 
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Newmarket 1.25 Tabsheer 40/1 small e/way (13/1 e/way 1/4 odds 4 places on sportsbook as a stake saver) He may have been btn 10L's on his only run but I believe it was a classier race than the one the fav ran in. I believe he was just outclassed by Redemption time who split Walbank & Royal Scotsmen on his previous run. (How good is Noble Style?) Redemption Time was unlucky in running in the Norfolk Stakes as well. So no disgrace In my book the selection was btn 10L by him first time out. If the selection does run well I will be watching out for the 2nd and 3rd in his last race. I ran the videos of fav and selection's last race simultaneously from 3Furlongs out as one was 5f and the 6f. All 4 of the runners in the selections race finished well ahead. Not a perfect science I know as fav race was at Chester. However selection was carrying 5lb more and all the mares progeny have won races and breeding suggest an extra furlong will help. Trainer is 2 wins and 2 places from 11 2yo runners on turf. This is why I feel the odds are too big and represent value. Sorry about the essay. :D
 
swedishchef said:
Newmarket 1.25 Tabsheer 40/1 small e/way (13/1 e/way 1/4 odds 4 places on sportsbook as a stake saver) He may have been btn 10L's on his only run but I believe it was a classier race than the one the fav ran in. I believe he was just outclassed by Redemption time who split Walbank & Royal Scotsmen on his previous run. (How good is Noble Style?) Redemption Time was unlucky in running in the Norfolk Stakes as well. So no disgrace In my book the selection was btn 10L by him first time out. If the selection does run well I will be watching out for the 2nd and 3rd in his last race. I ran the videos of fav and selection's last race simultaneously from 3Furlongs out as one was 5f and the 6f. All 4 of the runners in the selections race finished well ahead. Not a perfect science I know as fav race was at Chester. However selection was carrying 5lb more and all the mares progeny have won races and breeding suggest an extra furlong will help. Trainer is 2 wins and 2 places from 11 2yo runners on turf. This is why I feel the odds are too big and represent value. Sorry about the essay. :D
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That was poor and trainers other 2yo won the the 1.10 at Nottingham. Had it e/way 14/1 and e/way double with this selection. Was hopeful when the first one went In. 2 non runners so it would have been win only.
 
One last pop at the Northumberland Plate: Red Verdon 40/1, 6 places BOG - a bit of a cliff horse for me now and I really did intend to let him go here but the yard is in better form now, there was a glimmer of promise in his run last week and the booking of Curtis tells me to give the horse this one last chance. I know I'm mob-handed in the race but I've managed to avoid the market leaders at the prices taken and the other bets have all shortened up so I'm happy to settle for a smaller profit in the race as opposed to sticking with one or two and ending up kicking myself for not playing more of the field when I thought the odds were wrong.
 
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WHO DARES WINS 33/1 7 places.

10 yr old, won this in 2019 off 6 lb higher and a 3lb claimer.

Older than 6 yr old make up almost half the field.
 
Outsider said:
WHO DARES WINS 33/1 7 places.
I often back Saffies rides. Unfortunately I missed out on the double she had the other day. She’s going to win a big one one day.
10 yr old, won this in 2019 off 6 lb higher and a 3lb claimer.

Older than 6 yr old make up almost half the field.
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Newcastle

1.50 Kind Review is a serial course winner here at Newcastle. He has won here five times since 2020 and now dropped a couple of pounds after several poor runs on just his fourth start for new trainer Tim Easterby, after a decent break off the track, well perhaps he can run better than odds of 20/1 suggest.
 
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Nwm 2.20 - Universal Order 11/4
Nwm 3.15 - Sunray Major 15/8
Nwc 2.25 - Glen Shiel 9/2

Treble works out at just under 60/1.

I'm on at a fair bit longer than that but those prices still strike me as better than fair.
 
Interesting the effect Kevin Blake can have on the market.

He mentions Glory Daze and it's immediately halved pretty much across the board.

Anyroads, I've decided to go with my gut in the race and my faith in Bolger. I've taken 50/1 Boundless Ocean. No chance on form but Bolger just doesn't throw any old thing at the classics.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One last pop at the Northumberland Plate: Red Verdon 40/1, 6 places BOG - a bit of a cliff horse for me now and I really did intend to let him go here but the yard is in better form now, there was a glimmer of promise in his run last week and the booking of Curtis tells me to give the horse this one last chance. I know I'm mob-handed in the race but I've managed to avoid the market leaders at the prices taken and the other bets have all shortened up so I'm happy to settle for a smaller profit in the race as opposed to sticking with one or two and ending up kicking myself for not playing more of the field when I thought the odds were wrong.
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Interesting that Ben Curtis rides.just had a winner for Hugo Palmer and doesnt ride either of Hugo's in the big one.
And just like you I cant let it go at the price of 66s.
 
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