The 2022 Longshot Thread

I lost money on the race with just the one place return despite having backed three of the first five.

And the rest of the day was one to forget - a total Andrex and a really heavy crash after last Saturday. :(
 
Curragh 3.10 - Big Gossey 20/1, 5 places - looks on the up to me but stakes just modest enough to recoup yesterday's losses.
 
I've done 3 in it but all look badly drawn.

2 are big prices and drifting.

Urban beat 25/1
Dream today 66/1 probably needs 6f.
 
You won’t get it right too often, DO - that’s the nature of the calls. But it’s always a pleasure to read your reasoning, and I for one have made more from this thread than I’ve lost; so, thank you very much.
 
I only ever ask that the horse is a trier, which clearly wasn't the case with the non-longhsots I backed yesterday, but BG was trying for its life and just ran into one. No complaints. and the place profit will nibble back a small amount of yesterday's losses.

We move on.

Probably next weekend before I look at the racing again.
 
OLD NEWTON CUP

LOVE IS GOLDEN 40/1 has been running over 10f mainly but it's better form is around this distance and 40s is worth the risk.
 
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Love Is Golden?

Actually there are quite a few names in there I don't recognise and it looks like a rating in the 80s might make the cut.

For a £150k race, that's pretty disappointing (but great for anything that sneaks in off that kind of mark).

Hopefully I'll get a look at the race later today. Couldn't have told you it was coming up!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Love Is Golden?

Actually there are quite a few names in there I don't recognise and it looks like a rating in the 80s might make the cut.

For a £150k race, that's pretty disappointing (but great for anything that sneaks in off that kind of mark).

Hopefully I'll get a look at the race later today. Couldn't have told you it was coming up!
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Yes it is Love is Golden.i had to check. The other is one of Omearas.
Hes 20th in the line up so might scrape in.
 
Tomorrow, Tipperary, 6.45 - Ben Vrackie 50/1 - really unlucky not to win the 2019 Chookie Embra off 104 and not beaten far in the Ebor off 108. Gelded early the following year and hasn't been seen since (neither have his goolies). Makes his hurdles debut here and no way of knowing how much of the old ability he retains but even 80% of that ability would give him a shout at maiden hurdle level. I'm happy to pay to find out.
 
Moving swiftly on...


Eclipse - Lord North 25/1 BOG 3 places - I thought he ran a tremendous race the other day following that disastrous start and if he's on his best behaviour (and form) is more than capable of giving this lot a race. I wouldn't be backing him without the extra place, mind.
 
Outsider said:
OLD NEWTON CUP

LOVE IS GOLDEN 40/1 has been running over 10f mainly but it's better form is around this distance and 40s is worth the risk.
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First-time cheekpieces and not far off the top on my ratings so I've joined you at 50/1, 5 places, BOG.
 
France - GPdSC Bubble Gift 25/1 - close fifth in the Arc as a 3yo last year and looks like it's being brought along gradually this season. I'm a fan of Hurricane Lane but I'd worry that this might be a bit soon after Ascot. The others have their own iffiness.

I'm also taking 66s for the Arc in case it runs well today. It went off at 58/1 for it last year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
France - GPdSC Bubble Gift 25/1 - close fifth in the Arc as a 3yo last year and looks like it's being brought along gradually this season. I'm a fan of Hurricane Lane but I'd worry that this might be a bit soon after Ascot. The others have their own iffiness.

I'm also taking 66s for the Arc in case it runs well today. It went off at 58/1 for it last year.
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Nice place. Shocker from Hurricane Lane


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Happy enough with third place. The return covers today and the Arc bet.

Very surprised to see 20/1 still on offer about Alpinista for the Arc after that, which I took.

Considering:
a) the form of the Prescott stable, and
b) that this was her seasonal reappearance

surely she can only improve tons going forward.

I wrote after stupidly backing Hurricane Lane first time up in the Hardwicke that I doubt the ability of G1 horses to run within 5-7lbs of their very best form first time up so for Alpinista to win this nicely on her seasonal debut suggests she has improved a lot with more to come.

She could be quite exciting.

(Shame her trainer is such a w@nk.)
 
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Outsider said:
Al hakeem 33/1 arc
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Another we agree on OS. I'm sure I put him up somewhere after his last run behind Vadeni. I backed him and certainly intended to. I can't find my post though so perhaps I forgot to post. He'll benefit for the step up to a mile and half. He was given too much to do and was staying on really nicely in the Jockey Club.

La Petit Coco is the other one I put up for the race at 25/1.
 
John Smith's Cup - Jewel In My Crown 50/1, 5 places - I've no idea if the plan is to run but when the new marks are released tomorrow I suspect she will be up at least 7lbs so would be at least 2lbs well in under her penalty. It was a bit of a tinpot race she won last week but she was hampered early and looked in trouble when the leaders kicked half a mile out but she was never stronger than in the final half-furlong, going away from what looked like a couple of triers. We're coming into the time of year when fillies' improvement can be substantial. I'm not convinced the plan was this race but it has cut up more than I anticipated and maybe connections will be tempted by the huge prize.

Edit - Outsider put this up early on the race thread. At the time I didn't think she'd make the cut and am still surprised she has but she has to have a shout. With my luck they'll probably decide against runner her :lol:
 
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Duchess Of Cambridge
Newmarket Friday 2.25
Carmela 25/1

She ran a good 8th at Royal Ascot staying on late. The step up to 6f will bring big improvement. After she won her maiden her trainer said some big things about her including that she was a proper filly. With only 5 runners and none of that you'd be afraid of she's way overpriced.
 
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Slim said:
Duchess Of Cambridge
Newmarket Friday 2.25
Carmela 25/1

She ran a good 8th at Royal Ascot staying on late. The step up to 6f will bring big improvement. After she won her maiden her trainer said some big things about her including that she was a proper filly. With only 5 runners and none of that you'd be afraid of she's way overpriced.
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I'm with you on this one Slim.i put this in my alerts before Ascot and it ran well.
 
Ebor - Law Of The Sea 50/1 - Still a couple of weeks to go before the weights are out but this one is rated 100 so likely to get in at the foot of the handicap and my gut is telling me it might be a Godolphin long-term plan. At the price I'm happy to have him onside. Beaten only 4L in the Queen's Vase two runs back when he hung a bit and gelded at the end of the season. Excuses were made for him on his only run so far this season.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
6.10 - Lil Guff 22/1, 7 places - I put this on the strong form thread and it won last time. I wasn't impressed at the time but the form might actually be better than I thought. I was concerned that she was being caught late but that was over 6f and she drops back to five here for the first time. The trip, track and draw might all play to her strengths. I have to stick with her.
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Runs tomorrow, 50/1, 6 places - sickness insurance.
 
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