The 2022 Longshot Thread

Haydock Sprint Cup - Run To Freedom 66/1 - I've taken this for the Hackwood on Saturday in the belief it might just be a fast improver on the evidence of its run in the Platinum Jubilee. That is working out 7lbs better - backed up on the clock - than anything it had done before and it's lightly enough raced to keep improving. If it ends up winning or even going close in this it won't be 66/1.
 
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I've now also taken 50/1 Star Caliber for the Ebor in case it hacks up at Chester on Saturday. He’ll need to go up at least 7lbs if he’s to have any chance of making the cut for the Ebor so if it’s a serious target he really has to win this handsomely. He can’t afford to wait until the weights come out and pick up just a 4lbs penalty. I'm curious that they've waited until a midsummer £100k handicap to reintroduce him for the season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now also taken 50/1 Star Caliber for the Ebor in case it hacks up at Chester on Saturday. He’ll need to go up at least 7lbs if he’s to have any chance of making the cut for the Ebor so if it’s a serious target he really has to win this handsomely. He can’t afford to wait until the weights come out and pick up just a 4lbs penalty. I'm curious that they've waited until a midsummer £100k handicap to reintroduce him for the season.
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I wonder if I've stumbled on to something with this one. When I posted the above only one bookie was quoting for tomorrow's race, at 5/1, so I held off hoping for at least that once more bookies came online but even late this morning it was still just the one and they had cut it to 9/2. I've only now just checked it again and it's 11/4 tops across the board. I'm now a wee bit pished off about that and might be cutting off my nose to spite my face but I'm reluctant to go in at the lower price. I'll hold off until the morning and see what happens. There's no gun at my temple saying I have to have a bet and there's always the Ebor bet if it does go and hack up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wonder if I've stumbled on to something with this one. When I posted the above only one bookie was quoting for tomorrow's race, at 5/1, so I held off hoping for at least that once more bookies came online but even late this morning it was still just the one and they had cut it to 9/2. I've only now just checked it again and it's 11/4 tops across the board. I'm now a wee bit pished off about that and might be cutting off my nose to spite my face but I'm reluctant to go in at the lower price. I'll hold off until the morning and see what happens. There's no gun at my temple saying I have to have a bet and there's always the Ebor bet if it does go and hack up.
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If you get BOG with 11/4 tonight you’ll get the better price tomorrow ( provided it doesn’t go out only to shorten again) and if it shortens further you can pat yourself on the back for getting 11/4, then sit back and watch it lose :D
 
(Tomorrow) Ascot 3.00 - Northern Express 28/1 (boosted) 5 places, BOG - I'm taking a positive view of his most recent form, which puts him top on my figures for this season. The draw maybe isn't great and we might need to wait for the first race to see if the near-side bias persists and even then the smaller field might not tell us much. Nor am I a great fan of Graham Lee, and Connor Beasley, who rides most of the stable's winners, goes to York. So plenty of reason to be cautious about this one but I have to go with my figures when that kind of price is on offer.
 
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Followed you with that one as per usual, but noticed Star of Orion was in the race. Had a few coincidence named winners recently and someone knocked on my door yesterday looking for one of my neighbours who he mentioned was called Orion. Not a long shot at 14/1 but had to put some pennies on it given that there can’t be many people called Orion!
 
York 2.05:

Thegreatistshowman seems a fair old price at 25/1. He ran a respectable 7th in the Epsom Dash off a mark of 81. He ran a similiarly good race when 7th in the consolation race for the Stewards Cup at Goodwood in 2021.

I like the fact the handicapper has quickly dropped him in the handicap.

Thegreatistshowman is now on a mark of 74 and he has bits and pieces of good form in big fields which is what he faces tomorrow, but this won't be as hard as the Epsom Dash, so I can see him running really well but admittedly I'm taking a chance he can return to his best form. He's drawn high in 18 which is where the fancied horses are drawn so that might work to his advantage.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
(Tomorrow) Ascot 3.00 - Northern Express 28/1 (boosted) 5 places, BOG - I'm taking a positive view of his most recent form, which puts him top on my figures for this season. The draw maybe isn't great and we might need to wait for the first race to see if the near-side bias persists and even then the smaller field might not tell us much. Nor am I a great fan of Graham Lee, and Connor Beasley, who rides most of the stable's winners, goes to York. So plenty of reason to be cautious about this one but I have to go with my figures when that kind of price is on offer.
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I see Simon Rowlands seriously thought about putting this one up. That alone might see a minor contraction.

Anyroads, I've done anurra...

Raising Sands 50/1, 7 places. You can get 66s to fewer places and I might take that in the morning if it's still there. There's no way on God's good earth that this horse should be this price at this course in a race of this nature. Of course he isn't the horse he once was but he won this race off 103 in 2019 and went up to 109 for it. He's off 86 here and Saffie takes off another 3lbs. I can't resist the temptation to put on my best Weegie accent and say, "'Saffie hard tae ignore it..."

The horse was still able to run respectably off 97 here at the Shergar Cup meeting last year and I wouldn't put it past the trainer to have plotted it up for this. A quiet reintroduction this year was followed by a promising effort at Newbury and maybe they felt they couldn't afford to let it fall too far in case it missed the cut but it gets in anyway near the bottom.

I can't not back it, mug's bet or not.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
(Tomorrow) Ascot 3.00 - Northern Express 28/1 (boosted) 5 places, BOG - I'm taking a positive view of his most recent form, which puts him top on my figures for this season. The draw maybe isn't great and we might need to wait for the first race to see if the near-side bias persists and even then the smaller field might not tell us much. Nor am I a great fan of Graham Lee, and Connor Beasley, who rides most of the stable's winners, goes to York. So plenty of reason to be cautious about this one but I have to go with my figures when that kind of price is on offer.
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Nice run in fourth. Won't have covered the dutching outlay on my main two hopes but better than no return...
 
Outsider said:
Mug bet for me as well D.

ORBAAN 40/1 but still think it's better over further.
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Ran well really to finish 8th from a bad draw so I dont know if it will run or even get in the golden mile but I've had to do it at 50/1 boosted to 55s with betfair.
 
I tend to back all of the horses called ‘Maries’ because I get them mixed up but I would have missed this one without the heads up. By the way, not a long shot but did anyone see the wonderful race that Little Bruce ran at Uttoxeter?
 
moehat said:
I tend to back all of the horses called ‘Maries’ because I get them mixed up but I would have missed this one without the heads up. By the way, not a long shot but did anyone see the wonderful race that Little Bruce ran at Uttoxeter?
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I never watched it,I will have to look later.
Little Bruce came up in my alerts but I didnt bother today.
 
Yes Little Bruce ran a fantastic race given the long absence. Given a lovely ride by Lily Pinchin

After-timing alert: I only watched cos I backed the winner which was welcome after what seems like a long enough losing streak


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viking said:
Yes Little Bruce ran a fantastic race given the long absence. Given a lovely ride by Lily Pinchin

After-timing alert: I only watched cos I backed the winner which was welcome after what seems like a long enough losing streak
I wonder what the plan is for Bruce and Lily? He’s such a dear little horse. I’m sure that Phil, when he trained him, said he was related to Tiger Roll, but I can’t see anything about it so maybe my memory is playing tricks with me. I don’t have access to the pedigree records on TRP.

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