The 2022 Longshot Thread

Two in the 4.10 Leopardstown tomorrow, both 40/1

Eclair De Beaufeu
Drop The Anchor

EDB is probably targeting the County (UR last in 2019 and not beaten far last year) but is well treated on the very pick of his form.

DTA won this last year in the style of an improver but hasn't done much since. Probably been put away for this for a year.
 
DO, what type of prices do you have about Royalle Pagaille for the Gold Cup?

I am starting to think if It did come up as soft or better still heavy ground he is interesting for an each way bet. He didn't run his best race in last seasons Gold Cup, nor in this seasons betfair, but from memory the ground wasn't that soft on either occasion.

He is lightly raced enough to peak this time around and with Venetias horses flying I am hoping for her and connections sake for some real cut in the ground.

I suppose with a few firms going NRNB it's possible to back him before knowing the ground on the day.
 
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50/1 (taken 15 Nov)

33/1 NRNB (18/01)

I really can't see the ground being heavy, to be honest, Marb. I just thought the price didn't reflect his true ability and was based on his disappointing run last year but he was badly injured that day.

I did say back in the autumn that the weather site I use was suggesting a largely dry winter. It hasn't been far wrong.
 
Yes if it came up soft or heavy an each way player but as you say the chances of it happening are remote.
 
2.25 L Foxy Jacks.

Closely matched with the favourite Birchdale in the PP Chase at Christmas, when jumping markedly out to his right. Raced hard on the pace on soft ground in the Thyestes and was beaten when hammering the cross fence before being pulled up shortly after.

Has a decent record on this nicer ground and this trip and bottom weight points to being overpriced.

Mouse Morris yard's last couple of runners have shaped well so worth keeping an eye on his runners (Get My Drift in the 2m hcap hurdle also interesting).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two in the 4.10 Leopardstown tomorrow, both 40/1

Eclair De Beaufeu
Drop The Anchor

EDB is probably targeting the County (UR last in 2019 and not beaten far last year) but is well treated on the very pick of his form.

DTA won this last year in the style of an improver but hasn't done much since. Probably been put away for this for a year.
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I've added another in this race.

Future Proof 100/1, 7 pl - currently sits seventh in my ratings table but within a pound or two of rivals that are much shorter in the betting. The ground might not be soft enough for him and he's been beaten a long way in his two starts for this trainer which probably explains his price. He might also have trouble getting through from the rear in this big field so his price is entirely understandable but sometimes this is a funny old game and strange things can happen but on his very best form he is entitled to be in the mix for the minor places and I'm curious that the 7lb claimer has a 25% strike rate for the horse's previous trainer Noel Meade. Perhaps Meade recommended the lad to the new trainer. If I can get 25s or 20s place-only that would appeal more as a longshot.

Edit - took 22/1 top 5 finish with Sky - also qualifies for the thread.
 
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redundant pal said:
2.25 L Foxy Jacks.

Closely matched with the favourite Birchdale in the PP Chase at Christmas, when jumping markedly out to his right. Raced hard on the pace on soft ground in the Thyestes and was beaten when hammering the cross fence before being pulled up shortly after.

Has a decent record on this nicer ground and this trip and bottom weight points to being overpriced.

Mouse Morris yard's last couple of runners have shaped well so worth keeping an eye on his runners (Get My Drift in the 2m hcap hurdle also interesting).
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Agree this one looks way overpriced at 40/1 (6 places SkyBet)


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I agree too but haven't backed it. I have it within 4lbs of the top of my ratings table but I like too many of the shorter shots.
 
redundant pal said:
2.25 L Foxy Jacks.

Closely matched with the favourite Birchdale in the PP Chase at Christmas, when jumping markedly out to his right. Raced hard on the pace on soft ground in the Thyestes and was beaten when hammering the cross fence before being pulled up shortly after.

Has a decent record on this nicer ground and this trip and bottom weight points to being overpriced.

Mouse Morris yard's last couple of runners have shaped well so worth keeping an eye on his runners (Get My Drift in the 2m hcap hurdle also interesting).
Click to expand...

What a good call.i followed,thanks.that mad mistake could have been the difference.
 
Closely matched with the favourite alright. That mistake probably the difference


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Desert Orchid said:
Two in the 4.10 Leopardstown tomorrow, both 40/1

Eclair De Beaufeu
Drop The Anchor

EDB is probably targeting the County (UR last in 2019 and not beaten far last year) but is well treated on the very pick of his form.

DTA won this last year in the style of an improver but hasn't done much since. Probably been put away for this for a year.
Click to expand...

Drop The Anchor 5th.
 
Well, I've been saying often enough that maybe the Triumph winner hasn't been seen yet so I'm going to put up a newcomer for it and hope it wins or runs very promisingly tomorrow at Fairyhouse: Weddell Sea 66/1.

A promising run will maybe see the price more than halve but, if not, losses are minimal.

A total hunch punt and probably won't be my last in the race :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, I've been saying often enough that maybe the Triumph winner hasn't been seen yet so I'm going to put up a newcomer for it and hope it wins or runs very promisingly tomorrow at Fairyhouse: Weddell Sea 66/1.

A promising run will maybe see the price more than halve but, if not, losses are minimal.

A total hunch punt and probably won't be my last in the race :)
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Just back him at 14s tomorrow. He'd have no chance against the front two in the Triumph.
 
Slim said:
Just back him at 14s tomorrow. He'd have no chance against the front two in the Triumph.
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I have but I'm more interested in the prospect of stealing a mite of value in my beloved longshots.

(It's obviously a character flaw.)
 
Fleet street 33/1 supreme novices.

Won a £6 000 race and got put up 9lb to 141. Runs in the Betfair on saturday.took 20s.

Jonbon is rated 145 and constitution hill 149 so if it won the betfair it would be right up there.
 
Outsider said:
Fleet street 33/1 supreme novices.

Won a £6 000 race and got put up 9lb to 141. Runs in the Betfair on saturday.took 20s.

Jonbon is rated 145 and constitution hill 149 so if it won the betfair it would be right up there.
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One of my long-list too outsider, for the same reasons.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, I've been saying often enough that maybe the Triumph winner hasn't been seen yet so I'm going to put up a newcomer for it and hope it wins or runs very promisingly tomorrow at Fairyhouse: Weddell Sea 66/1.

A promising run will maybe see the price more than halve but, if not, losses are minimal.

A total hunch punt and probably won't be my last in the race :)
Click to expand...

Forgot all about this until a moment ago.

Went really well.

Not.

:(
 
Grand National - De Rasher Counter 66/1, 5 pl - runs this Saturday in the Denman, which might prove to be a shrewd move. The run will ensure it qualifies for the National and it's high enough in grade for them to have it run reasonably well but with little chance of winning even on its best form. He's back on the same mark off which he was a good winner of the Hennessy from subsequent Ultima winner The Conditional and is handicapped to win an average National on that form. They might even be able to afford to have him dropped a pound or even two ahead of the weights being released this week. They can't afford to have him run badly in case he drops too far so a decent run will be ideal but it will also probably be an 'eyecatcher' for the media people. I just wanted on before that possible eventuality.
 
Betfair Hurdle - Lord Baddesley 50/1 - it's easy to understand why he's this price but I think his chances are a bit better than that. I think the favourites are too short and the outsiders too long. It's that kind of race.

On my ratings every single runner is annotated as having prospects of improving and the extent of that improvement is a complete unknown. Like so many of the field, he's a second-season novice open to plenty of improvement.

He started this season over fences but seemed not to take to the discipline. Given a two-month break and sent back over hurdles he was given a very gentle reintroduction. Next time up he was 3/1f to beat two of tomorrow's much shorter-priced opponents First Street and Royaume Uni and they had to offer an official explanation to explain the disappointing run, claiming it ran too free.

I like Chris Gordon in races of this nature. He had Remiluc placed in this and the County Hurdle at very long odds. He doesn’t tilt at windmills.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Grand National - De Rasher Counter 66/1, 5 pl - runs this Saturday in the Denman, which might prove to be a shrewd move. The run will ensure it qualifies for the National and it's high enough in grade for them to have it run reasonably well but with little chance of winning even on its best form. He's back on the same mark off which he was a good winner of the Hennessy from subsequent Ultima winner The Conditional and is handicapped to win an average National on that form. They might even be able to afford to have him dropped a pound or even two ahead of the weights being released this week. They can't afford to have him run badly in case he drops too far so a decent run will be ideal but it will also probably be an 'eyecatcher' for the media people. I just wanted on before that possible eventuality.
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Ran much better than I anticipated. At one point I was muttering to the telly for the jockey to give it an easier time of it up the straight but he duly blew up and my hopes for the National are raised on the back of that. They appeared to be going a decent enough pace - they probably won't go faster in the National itself - and he kept tabs comfortably with G1/G2 horses.

I'm very surprised one bookie pushed him out to 100/1 and I went in again.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Betfair Hurdle - Lord Baddesley 50/1 - it's easy to understand why he's this price but I think his chances are a bit better than that. I think the favourites are too short and the outsiders too long. It's that kind of race.

On my ratings every single runner is annotated as having prospects of improving and the extent of that improvement is a complete unknown. Like so many of the field, he's a second-season novice open to plenty of improvement.

He started this season over fences but seemed not to take to the discipline. Given a two-month break and sent back over hurdles he was given a very gentle reintroduction. Next time up he was 3/1f to beat two of tomorrow's much shorter-priced opponents First Street and Royaume Uni and they had to offer an official explanation to explain the disappointing run, claiming it ran too free.

I like Chris Gordon in races of this nature. He had Remiluc placed in this and the County Hurdle at very long odds. He doesn’t tilt at windmills.
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Good 4th place.nice one.
 
Thanks for that. Couldn’t remember backing it last night so backed it again today. I know it’s aftertiming (sorry) but Peter Winks recommended an ew on Lough Salt on Facebook the other day and it won at 66/1. Having a good week ( makes a change….)
 
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