The 2022 Longshot Thread

Outsider said:
I was reading the racing news and watched the charity race at goodwood today and DARK SHOT broke well and led all the way and I see it runs in the stewards cup consolation race and is getting lumps of weight so I cant resist 33/1 5 places skybet.

Scott Dixon ew double
Dark shot 33s
Zargun 50/1
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What a run from DARK SHOT 3rd 50/1 only caught late on.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.
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:cool:

I'll take it. (And Tinto was fifth.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.
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What a shout! So glad you convinced me to put a decent bet on myself. Thanks so much and well done.
 
Well done guys, you don’t get many 25/1 winners to the pound, nor even 25/1 and 12/1 for an ew double. Hats off.
 
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I'm not feeling complimemtary to highstreet bookmakers. Hills and Ladbrokes only did 6 places in their shops. Hills were going 8 places online.

The same firm offering different terms for online and their shops is really perverse. Why can't they just align the two.

One bet for me in the race which was Makanah. He's done me proud.
 
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Doncaster 8.10 - Cockalorum 22/1, 5 places, BOG - this one has been mentioned in dispatches by both Outsider and myself this season on this thread. This race is a huge drop in class for it, offering a big pot for the class of race so every reason to be trying and I'm hoping it will give the horse the chance to get his head in front again.
 
Oooh. This fits in well with my current topical betting system. There was a Lucy Worsley programme about Queen Anne on tv the other night and I’ve been attempting to sing the Steeleye Span song Cam ye oe’re fram France ever since ( they were my favourite folk group for years) and of course the lyrics include ‘hey for cockalorum’. Can’t lose can it ( ?)
 
moehat said:
Oooh. This fits in well with my current topical betting system
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System won at Doncaster tonight at 9/1.

Also entered to run at Haydock in the Sunday Series this Sunday where she could bid for a double.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Doncaster 8.10 - Cockalorum 22/1, 5 places, BOG - this one has been mentioned in dispatches by both Outsider and myself this season on this thread. This race is a huge drop in class for it, offering a big pot for the class of race so every reason to be trying and I'm hoping it will give the horse the chance to get his head in front again.
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Beaten 2¼ lengths...




... into 7th :blink:

Musta been a tight finish. I did have concerns about the trip but at least they probably now know he can win off his mark.
 
Saturday, Ascot 3.20 -Danehill Kodiac 40/1, 4 places - top on my ratings so, for me, shouldn't be anywhere near that kind of price and I can't see Christophe Lemaire being a negative.
 
Ascot 1.00 - Pistoletto 33/1 - I dived in at 18/1 last night but will be going in again at this price or close to it if the BOGs kick in tomorrow. He put up seemingly a career best (supported by the clock) in a valuable 10f G3 on the All-Weather at Lingfield back in February and backed it up in a 12f handicap back there two runs later. Since then he’s been beaten over trips varying from 7f to 12f and it’s been on my mind that they’re aiming him at the Cambridgeshire. There’s now the chance that he might not make the cut off his mark so they might want to win this as they’re unlikely to go up too much for it. It isn’t as competitive as the numbers or pot suggest.

Ascot 2.10 - Blue De Vega 25/1, 4 places, BOG - top on my figures so an each-way pop and hope for the best.

I have another longshot in a later race but it's on the drift and I'm hoping for longer still in the morning. I'll put it on here then and I'll back these longshots in each-way multiples. You never know.
 
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GIOIA CIECA 225H 20/1 3places skybet.

Back in a smaller field might bring about some improvement on its last 3 races.was a good 4th earlier in the season.
3 places with sky tempted me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have another longshot in a later race but it's on the drift and I'm hoping for longer still in the morning. I'll put it on here then and I'll back these longshots in each-way multiples. You never know.
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It's now drifted out to 25/1, 4 places, BOG so I'm on and so is the each-way yankee to sweetie money. Ascot 3.55 Imperial Sands. I have it miles clear on its AW form but there's no firm evidence [for me] that he needs an artificial surface. If he does, it's probably donald ducked.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 1.00 - Pistoletto 33/1 - I dived in at 18/1 last night but will be going in again at this price or close to it if the BOGs kick in tomorrow. He put up seemingly a career best (supported by the clock) in a valuable 10f G3 on the All-Weather at Lingfield back in February and backed it up in a 12f handicap back there two runs later. Since then he’s been beaten over trips varying from 7f to 12f and it’s been on my mind that they’re aiming him at the Cambridgeshire. There’s now the chance that he might not make the cut off his mark so they might want to win this as they’re unlikely to go up too much for it. It isn’t as competitive as the numbers or pot suggest.
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Fuckmegently. Pistoletto is out to 66/1 with Bet 365. I didn't take the BOG last night (although I do have it in the multiples) so I've gone in yet again but I do fear the bookie has info to the effect that this won is 'not expected' today.
 
That was a wee bit disappointing. I wonder if the horse is too strong for the jockey (Nicola Currie) but to my untrained eye it looked like she wasn't keen to ask it to go forward from about two furlongs out and happy just to plug on for fourth (which the bookie didn't pay).
 
Desert Orchid said:
That was a wee bit disappointing. I wonder if the horse is too strong for the jockey (Nicola Currie) but to my untrained eye it looked like she wasn't keen to ask it to go forward from about two furlongs out and happy just to plug on for fourth (which the bookie didn't pay).
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A good run by yours though a shame as Skybet paid four places.

Does my nut in when that happens!
 
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