The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Looks like today was just a public gallop.
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I would love to see Ewan Whillans make a big name for himself by winning the November Handicap. That could be an interesting target, but I don't take much notice of ratings, don't know if he would get in even if it was on the cards. Off a low weight maybe a good run could be expected.

The evidence suggests the ability is still there. There's still time for him to show it properly this year. At least this run will (hopefully) keep the odds high enough next time.
 
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chaumi said:
Been keeping an eye on Shelir for the Clipper Logistics, who my instinct (haha, where did that ever get you, let's say a semi-semi-educated guess instead) says might be O'Meara's plot horse. Interestingly DT is down to ride Shelir and Blue For You, so something is possibly afoot. Just don't know what it is at this point. And (I think) Shelir may have played a semi-visible/cloaked part in Orbaan's Goodwood romp.

Best currently 40 with Skybet, 33 everyone else.

I guess there's more of a risk he won't run, given that double jockey booking, but maybe there's a legit reason for that. And you wouldn't have to do too much detective work to identify some evidence that this was/is a season target for Shelir.
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Looks like James Doyle is up for Shelir, which you'd think is not a negative sign. 40-1 Hills.
 
1.50 - Project Dante 33/1, 6 places, BOG - see York thread

4.10 Red Verdon 25/1, 5 places, BOG - has shown glimmers of form this season but is now very well handicapped. Won a G3 here in 2019 and a G2 in France in 2020. Was also a close fourth early last year in a £2m handicap at Riyadh off 108. Almost certainly not the horse he was back then but he's down to 97 now and this isn't a strong race.

(And, of course, the each-way double :))
 
Desert Orchid said:
4.10 Red Verdon 25/1, 5 places, BOG - has shown glimmers of form this season but is now very well handicapped. Won a G3 here in 2019 and a G2 in France in 2020. Was also a close fourth early last year in a £2m handicap at Riyadh off 108. Almost certainly not the horse he was back then but he's down to 97 now and this isn't a strong race.
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I've backed this up with a small win bet on the exchange on Withhold at 42. I have him top rated but suspect he's being trained for the Cesarewitch. If he's targeting this he'll probably win; if not, he'll probably finish behind the places hence the win-only bet. I've also covered them with a win bet on a non-qualifier.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've backed this up with a small win bet on the exchange on Withhold at 42. I have him top rated but suspect he's being trained for the Cesarewitch. If he's targeting this he'll probably win; if not, he'll probably finish behind the places hence the win-only bet. I've also covered them with a win bet on a non-qualifier.
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Promising run to finish not far behind the places, staying on again late after losing ground when headed. I'd conclude he isn't gone at the game yet and remains on my radar for the Ces.

(The other bet was Frankinstella who ran very well and only beaten by PB's impressive winner Alfred Boucher, nicely clear of the third. No complaints and pleased for PB.)
 
Friday York 1.50 - Angel Power 20/1, 5 places - rated 108 at one point last season, has been largely disappointing so far but looked as though prepping for something in her Shergar Cup race but gets to run off 96 here. Happy to pay to find out if it's this race. Also, Party Island 20/1, 5 places, in the same race. Big improver on the AW and has a big chance if able to repeat the form on turf. Neither is my main bet, though.
 
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Nunthorpe, New York City 66/1, 4 places, BOG - Maruco and Slim were keen on this one ahead of the Commonwealth Cup and I followed them in at 16/1 ante-post but it didn't run. Not seen much since so a wee bit surprised that it turns up here, returned to the minimum trip after fading last time over six. Coolmore sole runner in a G1 in England at 66/1? Can't let it go unbacked in a pish renewal.
 
York - Friday

5.20 An interesting handicap here where Master Richard can run well at big odds. The handicap is not too condensed as there is at least a stone from the top weight to bottom weight and so Master Richard runs here off a nice low weight.

He's been consistently running well this season so I feel he is coming to this race in good form and when he won here at York over course and distance he won really well pulling clear a few lengths.

I fancy this horse will make a bold showing from close up on the pace tomorrow, and if his shrewd trainer Ann Duffield has targetted him at this race watch out for a big run from Master Richard.

I just can't see why his trainer would run him here to make up the numbers and there's a good chance someone connected thinks he could be a lot better than his current rating.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Nunthorpe, New York City 66/1, 4 places, BOG - Maruco and Slim were keen on this one ahead of the Commonwealth Cup and I followed them in at 16/1 ante-post but it didn't run. Not seen much since so a wee bit surprised that it turns up here, returned to the minimum trip after fading last time over six. Coolmore sole runner in a G1 in England at 66/1? Can't let it go unbacked in a pish renewal.
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Also taken some sickness insurance on Winter Power, 20/1, 4 places, BOG. She fair burned my fingers here last time so enough on today to recoup those losses even if it's just a place return.
 
Saturday, Melrose - Temporize 25/1, 5 places - easy to excuse his most recent run over 12f when he set a steady pace that was highly unlikely to suit one so stoutly bred and I'm anticipating a massive step up in form in a race that will probably be strongly run.
 
Ebor - Quenelle D'Or 66/1, 8 places - a poor run last time requires forgiving but it might have been too soon after Ascot when she was only three lengths behind Get Shirty (16/1 for this) and is 10lbs better off. Hugo Palmer is a good target trainer and I'm curious that he held this one back for a seasonal debut at royal Ascot and now turns up here for just her third run of the season. She got her black type last season at Saint-Cloud in a Listed race and maybe that allowed them to lay her out for this. She was fast improving at the end of last season and every reason to believe she can be even better this time round.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ebor - Quenelle D'Or 66/1, 8 places - a poor run last time requires forgiving but it might have been too soon after Ascot when she was only three lengths behind Get Shirty (16/1 for this) and is 10lbs better off. Hugo Palmer is a good target trainer and I'm curious that he held this one back for a seasonal debut at royal Ascot and now turns up here for just her third run of the season. She got her black type last season at Saint-Cloud in a Listed race and maybe that allowed them to lay her out for this. She was fast improving at the end of last season and every reason to believe she can be even better this time round.
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Get Shirty has drifted out to 20/1 (boosted to 22/1) with Ladbrokes (5 places) so I've taken that. I reckon he improved a fair bit after Ascot, won easily despite being up in the ratings and down in trip and has strong prospects of improving considerably again for the step back up in trip. This will end up being my heaviest bet in the race and it might be the case that only Euchen Glen's better old form can beat him.
 
There's a fair chance Exminster could go well in the 5.20. 65 on the exchange a while back, hard to tell which way it will go. Top 30-1 PP, 28 or 25 the rest.

Ed Bethell's Oviedo and Sandbeck both ran well yesterday. This race has probably been a target for Exminster, although trainer also runs Point Lynas (Ray Dawson 1-1 for the stable). There's obvious close form with Golden Voice in the York race from 21st May, and Master Richard was some way back in that (although fto for the season there I think).

Draw doesn't look great and confidence might be higher if it was a little softer. If the ground does hamper him, let's hope for a tail-end run and get it back next time.
 
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Sandown 3.50 - Dubai Horizon 25/1, 5 places, BOG - hard to get away from the idea that he's in decline and without a trip but he comes here after a three month break for a race in which the trainer has a good record so I'm working on the assumption that he's maybe started to show some of his old form at home and the jockey has had a winner and a second from four rides for the trainer this season. It's a hunch bet to small stakes. I've also taken 33/1 Victory Chime. He was beaten a short head in this race last year off 99 before winning off 103 and following up in a Listed race, by which time he was up to 106. He’s disappointed since but that has seen his mark come back down to 97.

I might even try the forecast :lol:
 
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Marb said:
York - Friday

5.20 An interesting handicap here where Master Richard can run well at big odds. The handicap is not too condensed as there is at least a stone from the top weight to bottom weight and so Master Richard runs here off a nice low weight.
I’ve turned the radio off. Scared to listen to the result!!!
He's been consistently running well this season so I feel he is coming to this race in good form and when he won here at York over course and distance he won really well pulling clear a few lengths.

I fancy this horse will make a bold showing from close up on the pace tomorrow, and if his shrewd trainer Ann Duffield has targetted him at this race watch out for a big run from Master Richard.

I just can't see why his trainer would run him here to make up the numbers and there's a good chance someone connected thinks he could be a lot better than his current rating.
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Haha cheers you two I see Nick Luck and co were keen to have my fella Master Richard demoted even if he had won the race.

He has managed to be in front both just before and just after the line a bit like Emily Upjohn in the Oaks against Tuesday.

Very worrying that experienced racing folk like Nick Luck think mine was an unworthy winner. They were out in front the whole way and Master Richard was a length in front of Point Lynas when he went over to his right a bit.

A great battle and if you really wanted to be picky you could argue Point Lynas interfered with Master Richard in the final furlong.

Puts me off having a bet when commentators like Nick Luck are saying things like that. Please watch the race and then tell me there was any malice from David Egan intended at all there.

He was clearly a horses length in front of Point Lynas at the time of this huge incident Nick Luck can't stop going on about.

It is nothing worse than what Tom Marquand was marched into the Stewards Room at Glorious Goodwood for.

In fact the interference was far less.

I hope Nick Luck may revise his opinion when he has calmed down.
 
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Actually....aside from DO's pointers from some months ago...and yeah I totally missed it...but there was some real writing on the wall here....

Point Lynas gave a 2l beating to Outgate at Newmarket in a Class 2 late last year...with Exminster well back...and guess who PL subsequently moved from and to? Charles Hills to Ed Bethell. So, my reading is Ed knew what he was getting when he bought PL (assuming he bought and it wasn't just a switch, my RP membership has ended and can't see any sale details). But, if that interpretation is right, he also knows exactly where he is with Exminster. Possibly good news for the next one or two races, provided there is some proper rain.
 
chaumi said:
Actually....aside from DO's pointers from some months ago...and yeah I totally missed it...but there was some real writing on the wall here....

Point Lynas gave a 2l beating to Outgate at Newmarket in a Class 2 late last year...with Exminster well back...and guess who PL subsequently moved from and to? Charles Hills to Ed Bethell. So, my reading is Ed knew what he was getting when he bought PL (assuming he bought and it wasn't just a switch, my RP membership has ended and can't see any sale details). But, if that interpretation is right, he also knows exactly where he is with Exminster. Possibly good news for the next one or two races, provided there is some proper rain.
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Aye Point Lynas seems to have improved a bit since the gelding operation too. In truth he won a class two last season and was a last time out winner. He was too big a price today.
 
You'll need to remind me, chaumi.

I'm doing well to remember what I had for my tea this evening let alone something I wrote months ago :lol:
 
Ah, I can't find it, Desert. But you were uprating the performances of the principals in this race....

https://www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2022-05-21/810141

So take a note of the 5th home.

Sad sidenote: in light of today's performance, it's now even more painful how he got done by a nose at Donny on the 3rd June in a Class 5 when I had half the mortgage on at double figure odds. Sigh and groan. :-(
 
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